2/6 "Daily" And-1

So, I'm back after the weekend (and yesterday) off. I'll just sum up some recent events, sorry for being light on the links.

1) Colts win Super Bowl - The Bears offense didn't do enough against the "weak" Colts defense and within the main matchup Colts O nickel and dimed Bears D. Congrats to Peyton for never having to answer "the question" again.

2) ACC Upsets - When was the last time both Duke and UNC came into the big game off losses? Does anyone know? Well, I guess we'll find out during the broadcast. (first time since 1989 that Duke comes in with 2 straight losses).

And-1) Aggies on a tear - Looks like I was wrong about the Aggie/Jayhawk matchup and then A&M rubbed it in my face, earning biscuts last night against the 'Horns. I guess we should have all seen that one coming though, with Texas' ~100th ranked defense. I guess they're kind of like an inverse Duke, well, thats Arizona, but a poor man's inverse Duke.
Texas 8/103
Duke 48/1
Arizona 2/64
For compairison/prediction sake, lets look deeper at a couple of recent matchups, 2 balanced teams (UNC/A&M) playing an offensive focused team: A&M 100 Texas 82 and UNC 92 Arizona 64, arguably similar results. Both teams again playing a defensive focused team: A&M 69 Kansas 66, UNC ?? Duke ??, I'd predict a similar result (under 5 pt game) and restate what I've said in the past, defense is much much much more hard to coach, a team concept, and important to winning than offense.

A couple of random links to finish off the day:
Super Bowl 42 odds
John's a big liar, Stanford is his fave Pac-10 team

Schedule
Tonight's College B-Ball
UVA @ MD
State @ GT (is someone going to "lose their legs" or "not play well with a target on their back"?)
LSU @ Tenn (LSU has lost 5 in a row, the last 3 by a total of 14 pts)

Local
State 83 UNC 79
UNC @ Duke 2/7

Lady Heels 82 BC 60
Duke @ Lady Heels 2/8

Cleveland 101 Charlotte 81
Charlotte 98 Golden St. 90
Miami 113 Charlotte 93
Charlotte @ Philly 2/7

Edit: Forde Minutes added today, and Iona jumped up to 313KP and dropped to 2nd Cons (bumped by 11-11 Manhattan). On the other end of the spectrum, OU is still the least consistent team, despite beating TTech.

Big Nick

While wasting time, I looked through the ORtgs of several big men, and found that actually, there are only two players I'd rather have on my team than Greg Oden - Nick Fazekas and Aaron Gray. Based solely on a combination of ORtg, rebounding ability, and shot-blocking ability, those are the only two that I'd rather have on my team than Oden. I still say Nick Fazekas is the best player in college basketball right now.

I <3 Prospects

Good post on two prospects of note right now; one is in the minors in the Braves organization, one is in the majors and will be battling none other than our own Javy Lopez during Spring Training for a starting job come April. The best part is, Ryan might know both of them! Take a look at this post if you're at all interested in how these rankings are compiled.

Note: something must be wrong with Baseball Prospectus! Free PECOTA cards for everyone!

NFL Playoff Pick'em Final Results

I'll get to a "weekend And-1" some time later this afternoon, as of now I just want to finish out the NFL Pick'em season.

Ryan +32 (10-1) (37-43)
John 0 (7-4) (44-36)
key: pts (playoff record) (season record)

Not sure what motivated John to pick the Bears, his post wasn't very clear, then again neither was mine. This is somewhat the opposite of our regular season results with John cleaning house and myself holding my head above the .500 mark, well, above the .400 mark. However, much like his beloved Chargers, John suffered a minor letdown in the playoffs. Anyways, it was a good year for pick 'em, this is the last you'll hear about the NFL until, say, late March when the pre-draft camps roll around.

BP

I love when Baseball Prospectus gives me free stuff, especially when it's about the Braves.

Selection Committee Ruling

According to this Charlotte Observer blog, Craig Littlepage and the rest of the selection committee will consider the Duke-Clemson timing error when weghing their case for the NCAA tourney, well, their seeding, b/c I think Clemson is in like Flynn. Anyways, good for Littlepage.

Selection Committee Ruling

According to this Charlotte Observer blog, Craig Littlepage and the rest of the selection committee will consider the Duke-Clemson timing error when weghing their case for the NCAA tourney, well, their seeding, b/c I think Clemson is in like Flynn. Anyways, good for Littlepage.

2/2 Daily And-1

Warning: What Follows is a very weak post, I am heading to bed and going on a weekend field trip tomorrow, so John can And-1 over the weekend if he feels the need.

1) DUKE LOST - called it, well, I call all Duke road games as losses

2) UCLA whipped Oregon - called it, though I was off by 7 pts. (and Wazzu held up at Arizona, weak legs anyone?)

And-1) Ryan picks the Colts in the Super Bowl (10) - If only to keep things interesting, I mean, the whole defense wins championships thing is just a saying right? And my fantasy team can't afford for Indy to be the Super Bowl Losers.

There's a funny story over on Deadspin ripping Bill Simmons and other ESPN personas.

Lady Heels 82 BC 60

Weekend
UNC @ NC State
Bobcats @ Cleveland
Warriors @ Bobcats

Edit: #1 DEFENSE #1 DEFENSE, after Duke allowed 104 DE last night, UNC BLEW by them, (well Duke was the one who moved, but its a technicality)

Power 16 for 2/1

I got tired of seeing my tables crash and burn, so you just get 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds this week.

#1 Seeds
1. Florida
2. North Carolina
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State

#2 Seeds
5. UCLA
6. Kansas
7. Texas A&M
8. Duke

#3 Seeds
9. Pittsburgh
10. Memphis
11. Butler
12. Oregon

#4 Seeds
13. Air Force
14. Marquette
15. Indiana
16. Oklahoma State

Go Bears

10 points - Chicago Bears.

Don't ask me why, because I won't have an answer for you. Gut-check time tells me Chicago will win Sunday.

2/1 Daily And-1

1) State upsets VT - Or should I call this entry ACC Parity part 2? State nails down its second win of the season (2-5) and hands VT only their second loss (other was @FSU). Seems like the GT/Wake game, except it should have been GT's 2nd loss but they're busy sucking it up. Anyways, I've scoured the box score, and NOTHING. VT took care of the ball (5-14 TOs), FTs were equal (13-21 to 14-21). The only discrepancy was FG% (18% diff) and eFG% (21%). That's it, pretty stunning. Its well put by McFarling of the Roanoke Times.
Edit: to John and all of you out there swooning over the PAC-10, KP and I agree ACC>PAC-10 and props to KP for upping the posting.

2) College B-Ball results (see below) - A) a fraud was uncovered, B) a slippery slope steepened, C, D & E) a championship case asserted (x3), F) rising star discovered (a: x1 team, b: x1 player). Feel free to play along at home, answers in tomorrow's And-1. Oh, and um G) none of the above?

(ok, this is proving to be too difficult for some of you: A) fraud team, B) slippery slope team, C) Champ case team 1, D) Champ case team 2, E) Champ case team 3, Fa)Rising star team, Fb) Rising/risen star player, G) Game below that meets none of above) I can't believe I just typed that all out.

And-1) Panthers Sucked - In 3 different ranking (Page 2, FO, PFR) systems the 2003 Panthers were the 2nd worst Super Bowl team of all time. I guess this reflects how well they had to play in the playoffs.

Schedule
UNC 105 Miami 64 - Did anyone outside of Dade county expect anything different? Also, Frank Haith is a true gentleman "I really don't want to talk about the officiating because I really don't want to take anything away from Roy's club. He's got a great team and they really took it to us tonight." (Lucas Article) Also, UNC is within .1 AdjDE of the previously unreachable Duke, thanks to the performance last night coupled with Miami's prior OE improved our defense.

Bobcats 104 Knickerbockers 87 - Gerald Wallace 42 points, he's turning into quite an expansion draft find adding scoring to all the other things he does well. In other Bobcat news Felton and Morrison will be playing in the Rookie-Soph game. The Bobcats are also 4.5 games out of a playoff spot.

Lady Heels @ BC

Other Results
Indiana 71 Wisconsin 66 - noise made
Ohio St 78 Purdue 60
KState 80 Mizzou 73
Texas 76 TTech 64 - Durant 37/23 WOW, ok, maybe I'm sliding towards the "the Bobcats would be happy with both" category, but in 5 years everyone will look back on Durant talk and LAUGH
Florida 74 Vandy 64 - The 'doors kept it close, and lead by 12, but Florida was just toying with them, I guess they wanted the SEC to look better, quite altruistic of them, no?
Depaul 66 UConn 58 - bleeding worsened, as I predicted to John last night, UConn will go on a run, get the 11th spot in the Big East Tournament, wax the weak field while someone else takes care of Pitt for them, and promptly lose in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tourney
Gonzaga 90 Stanford 86 - (see John's post for commentary)

Duke @ UVA
Oregon @ UCLA - 25 points, EASY, UCLA is pissed and Oregon is OVER-RATED
Wazzu @ Arizona

Apparently he's not thinking of his grandchildren's children like Andruw

Good article from mlb.com about Gabe Kapler, who retired as an active player with the opportunity to win a role with the Red Sox during Spring Training (likely only as a bench player) to manage at Class A Greenville. Thought it was really interesting.

I just finished my Stats homework at 3:30, having delayed due to two overtimes tonight. Go Stanford.

Well played, Bulldogs

Props to Gonzaga, played very well tonight, especially in the second overtime, even though the refs were trying their hardest to give it to my boys. I thought they made four very questionable calls late in favor of the Cardinal, but in the end poor free-throw shooting and low-percentage shots doomed Stanford. Especially good play came from Pargo and Raivio. We all knew how good Raivio was (although I didn't know he was such a good free-throw shooter), but Pargo really impressed me tonight. I don't remember much of his play from the UNC game, but apparently he dropped 16 on us as well. Oh well, Stanford's got Cal, Washington, and Oregon State in their next four games to regain some confidence.

1/31 Daily And-1

1) Harangody Breakout!!! - As I was scanning the scoreboard of last night's action, one thing jumped out at me "Players of the Game ND - L. Harangody". Miracle of miracles, looks like someone finally emailed Mike Brey a www.kenpom.com link. "Cool Hand Luke" got 30 minutes and rewarded the coach with 21 pts 13 rbs (though it took him 19 shots to get there, i'll give him a break in his first outing). Harangody helped the Irish hang 61 pts on Cuse in the first half in an NBA style 103 91 win.

2) ACC Parity - FSU upended Maryland at home 96-79, this wasn't a huge upset, but this Maryland team has fallen a long way from their early season form. Also, Wake Forest beat GT at home in a much larger upset. This gives Wake its 2nd in conference win and slides GT closer to the "work left to do" category of bubble watch.

And-1) Aggie Report - OK, here it is, the end-all be-all analysis of the Texas A&M Aggies with a Kansas game prediction. Their schedule is somewhat vague in terms of telling you how they're actually doing. They've lost three acceptable games LSU, UCLA, TTech, (two by 3 pts or less), but outside of these games their wins are fairly weak, @Auburn, OK St, OU, and Winthrop all at home. Its hard to judge a team with close games against big teams and little else, therefore much will likely be made of their Kansas game this weekend, this is also the reason their Cons is weak (311). Also, they have a strong defensive rating (4th) but against offensively bad offensive competition (209th). However, on offense they pass the ball as well as anyone (3rd A/FGM) and get most of their points inside the arch (54.8%). They don't go very deep, with their minutes being fairly top heavy (rotation looks to go 6.5 deep with man #7 getting 26% PT). However, 4 of their 5 starters contribute offensively and they have Josh Carter at 133 ORtg. Now here's the prediction. I'll give the edge to Kansas, which I'd even predict at a neutral site, but the Phog Allen crowd will only help matters. The Jayhawks are deeper and play solid enough defense to win the game and get a leg up in the Big 12, though don't judge this Aggie team by a sole loss. They may not have the heart to pull this one out, but they'll be a dangerous team come tournament time if their defense meshes just a little more. Since they don't get a true home and home series, they'll have to hunt for revenge in the Big 12 Tourney.

Results
Illinois 57 Mich St. 50 - Old fashioned Big 10 barn-burner. Why is it that on the CBS website its "Big Ten" but "Big 12"?

Schedule
Miami @ UNC
Knicks @ Bobcats

OSU @ Purdue
Wisconsin @ Indiana - interesting road test, chance for Hoosiers to make some noise
Mizzou @ KState
Texas @ TTech - both teams with "work left to do", could be interesting
UConn @ Depaul - can the Huskies stop the bleeding or is it too late?
Gonzaga @ Stanford - hmmm, tastier than a chinese buffet

The Secret Conference, Revisited

Okay Byron, Ryan and I want to see how many MVC teams you can name right now. Right now!

"I can't name any of them! Damn it! I don't care!"

1/30 Daily And-1

1) Barbaro to the Glue Factory - Yeah, yeah, lame lead off for a lame sports day. In a tragedy of tragedies, the great horse will not soon be matched. Oh wait, whats that? No Triple Crown? You mean, Barbaro didn't do something no other horse has done since Secretariat? Oh, I'm sorry, because based on the media coverage you'd have thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. Anyways, I'm sad a horse died, but happy we'll never have to hear about him again.

2) Hoops Action - Pittsburgh went to underrated 'Nova and won last night, could they be lining up for a #2 if they win the Big East? I think they might slip into one, with either a #1 finish or a Big East Tourney win. Its close, but i don't think Texas A&M will get the props for a #2 but we'll see (I promise, the analysis is coming, sometime before Saturday's showdown with Kansas). Also, what happened to the Big East since 2003 their RPI has been 4, 3, 2, 2, but this year they're 7th (same trend in KP ratings but not as drastic 4, 3, 2, 2, but they're 4th now). Their best team is Pitt at 8-1, after that there is a logjam at 2 losses with G-town, Marquette, L'ville. Imagine if they hadn't become a super-mega conference no Marquette or L'ville. It just seems like an odd down year for a conference with 16 teams.

And-1) Baseball Hot Stove - (Why the hell is it called that? John? Anyone?) Bonds passed a physical (probably sans drug test) and will complete his deal with the Giants. Speaking of 'roiders Sosa completed his deal with the Rangers, and the Rockies have broken off trade talks with the Red Sox who want Todd Helton, damn right Rockies you better clean 'em out if they want Helton.

Schedule
Bobcats 105 George Karl's Nuggets 101

Tonight
Mich St. @ Illinois
Maryland @ FSU
ND @ 'Cuse

NEW KENPOM!!! NEW KENPOM!!!

The Secret Conference

Bracketbusters matchups have been announced!

(The Missouri Valley Conference is "The Secret Conference" because Byron doesn't know anything about it. Ask him to name five Valley teams! It's fun! Ask him to name three! Even more fun!)

1/29 Daily And-1

1) College Basketball Upsets - There were several upsets (as usual) this week in the world of college hoops, here's a brief overview. UVA scored the last 15 points to edge Clemson by 1 at Littlejohn. Clemson 0-4 FG, 0-3 FT, 2 TOs in last 5:00, UVA 3-4 3FG, 3-4 2FG, 2 ORB, 0 possesions w/o points. Stanford shocked visiting UCLA with a strong outing from John's new favorite set of non-female twins the Lopez Brothers. Also, Baylor gave Texas a scare, OU fell flat on its face as usual (336th Cons). and Providence beat UConn to put their tournament hopes in even more jeopardy (Big East Tournament that is).

2) On Top of Their Game(s) - Federer and Woods both won this weekend, 10th Grand Slam and 7th consecutive win respectively, each writing yet another chapter in their all out dominance of an individual sport. Yeah, yeah, I know, I'm copping the worldwide leader's style. But it is a solid comparison, both are in their primes and looking like they could wear the "best ever" crown.

And-1) NFL Update - Just relaying a couple of stories. The NFL fined Reggie Bush ($5,000) for taunting the Bears in the NFC Champ Game. The Cowboys look to be leaning towards hiring Norv Turner (WTF, are you KIDDING ME, can you say MISTAKE!?!?!). Oh, yeah, and there is this whole Super Bowl thing or something, Peyton Manning, blah blah blah. And finally, my man at the Rock Hill Herald gets on the ball and writes about Jeff Davidson.

Results:
Warriors Too Much, Bobcats Too Little - looks like that new chemistry is working in GS, well, at least against the league's worst.

UNC 92, Arizona 64 - in case you were under a rock this weekend, Brandan Wright and Marcus Ginyard took the weekend off, Marcus Williams got hurt, and the Heels Team A v 2.0 walloped the Wildcats. Several good articles: Observer, Andy Katz. John and I disagree, but with UCLA's loss I feel that we will slip up to #2 in at least one poll.
(if you don't like the random newspaper articles, check out bugmenot.com)

Lady Heels 84, Lady Terps 71 - up big early, the Lady Heels made a case for #1 in the nation by beating Maryland at home, building up to the coming Duke game 2/8 (both are still undefeated and have played nearly identical schedules, Tenn, UConn, Maryland, half of the ACC)

Schedule:
Bobcats @ Nuggets

From the comedy section, Shaq is at it again, putting his Miami Dade reserve policemen status to work. Maybe he should show up on an episode of CSI: Miami.

Go Cardinal

I retract my earlier statement; Stanford beats UCLA tonight in a thrilling upset! Have I told you how much I love Pac-10 hoops on FSN? Have I told you how much I love the Stanford Cardinal? Have I told you how much I love Brook Lopez?

Those Other Rankings:

1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
3. North Carolina

Those other rankings

Byron: "Think we'll improve our spot in the polls after our drubbing of Arizona?"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Go Braves

Just relaying a post I gave to the numb-nuts members of a Braves facebook group I belong to.

"We had one of the best offenses in the Major Leagues last season, good for sixth. SIXTH. The Yankees, Indians, Phillies, Mets, and Blue Jays were the only teams with better offenses (three AL teams, and two NL East teams). In my mind, trading away a part of that offense with someone (Thorman) waiting in the wings to have a decent chance at replacing it is fine with me, given our bullpen situation. I'm quite glad to have Gonzalez coming over (he would have easily been the most valuable of our relievers were he with our organization last year, so too would Soriano), and receiving Lillibridge only sweetens the deal.

From Baseball America:
"Gonzalez, a 28-year-old lefthander, helps shore up an Atlanta bullpen that was a weakness last year but already was bolstered this offseason by the acquistion of Rafael Soriano. Gonzalez has better stuff that most southpaws, starting with a plus fastball and slider. He went 3-4, 2.17 with 24 saves in 54 games last year. He had a 64-31 K-BB ratio in 54 innings while limiting opponents to a .213 average and one homer. Gonzalez avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $2.35 million contract in January."

"Lillibridge, 23, was one of Pittsburgh's top prospects. A fourth-round pick out of Washington in 2005, he hit a combined .305/.419/.480 with 13 homers, 71 RBIs and 53 steals in 128 games between two Class A stops last year. Lillibridge has the tools to bat at the top of a lineup with a solid bat, gap power, improving plate discipline and plus speed. He has good range and a solid arm at shortstop, and could surface quickly in Atlanta."

Also, McCann was our most valuable hitter this year. Chipper was a close second, even with the missed playing time; in fact, he only had 15 fewer plate appearances than McCann. Renteria was fourth, LaRoche was fifth, and Francoeur wasn't even close. Among all players with 200+ plate appearances, he was easily the worst. I'm still willing to give him a chance, though; hopefully he'll have learned patience by the 2007 season."

1/27 Daily And-1

1) "Timing Error" - I guess this means Clemson is really for real real. In case you haven't heard, someone "slipped up" and didn't start the clock as Clemson tied the game, but started it after that. Then a home court ruling added about twice the number of seconds to the clock as should have been allowing Duke to tie the game.

2) Aussie Results - Serena ran over Maria last night, 6-1, 6-2 to take the Australian Open. Yeah, yeah, she's unseeded, but that just means she hasn't played in a while. But based on the results they might as well have Greco-Roman wrestled for the title.

And-1) Shootout in the Desert - The Heels take on the 'Cats today in Tuscon, lets see if I can hit the cliche nail on the head "first team to 100 wins". Ok, yeah, that was fun, now some real analysis: Arizona doesn't force enough TO's (17.7 OppTO%, 328th) or defend shots well enough (50.4% effFGA 183rd) to slow down the Heel's offense. The 'Cats offense, despite being high powered doesn't respond well to pace (r=-.29) and their defense suffers when their opposistion rebound offensively (r=+.46). On the flip side, the Heels defense thrives off TOs (r=-.62*) while Arizona takes care of the ball (19.1 TO%, 44th). And lets not forget about home court advantage, the Heels have only lost at away or neutral sites. Edit: Arizona has a 29 game non-conference home winning streak.

Results:
Bobcats 106, Lakers 97 (OT) - wins are nice, sweeping the Lakers is nice, but are we getting a little too far away from Oden/Durant? I mean, I'd swap wins for that 3rd or 4th lottery spot, besides, we're due for a lottery W, we've never won it. Getting Greg Oden in Charlotte would do so much for ticket sales, etc.

Schedule(local):
Heels @ 'Cats
Bobcats @ GS Warriors
Lady Heels @ Terps (Sunday)

(the following at all top 50 matchups)
Illinois @ Purdue
Michigan @ Indiana
Mich St @ Ohio St
OU @ T A&M
'Cuse @ L'Ville
'Nova @ ND
Bradley @ Mizz St (52, its close enough)
Oregon @ Wazzu
Arkansas @ 'Bama
Florida @ Auburn (yeah, yeah, they're only 80th)
Sunday
BC @ Duke
VT @ GT
Depaul @ WVU
LSU @ UGA
Tenn @ UK

Wow, what a slate of games, enjoy 'em folks. The Daily And-1 will be off tomorrow as I'm mucking around Falls Lake looking for birds.

1/26 Daily And-1

1) For Real Real - I'm not sure if this means Clemson is as good as advertised, Duke is worse than advertised, or my theory (Clemson's ball pressure gets at Duke's weak spot) is correct.
Its most likely a combination of all three, but the Tigers played the Devils close in Cameron, something that's easier said than done. Also, props to getting it done when it counts 10-11 at the FT line, WOW, thats 30% above their season average. Though I hope the whistle blows a bit more in 2 weeks when the Heels visit Cameron, team fouls 15 to 10, yes for the entire game.

2) NFL bans EPOs - I'm not a PED expert, so most of the wisdom is in the article, but basically this equates to MLB banning andro a while back, and as the article says, if a league cares enough to ban something, it must be being used by players.

And-1) "84 or 85" - Today from the comedy section, we have Gilbert Arenas' attempt to predict his point total were he to play Duke and Coach K. This is likely an extrapolation of his 50+ point game against the other Team USA coach (Mike D'Antoni, Pheonix Suns). Lets just put it this way, I would pay a large sum of money to see John Scheyer and/or Greg Paulus attempting to guard Gilbert Arenas.

Last Night's Wrap-Up:
Clemson = for real real
UW rolls back towards the happy side of the bubble, "knocking off" overrated Oregon
via John: props to Brook Lopez, a triple double the hard way (16 pts 11 rbs 12 BLOCKS), though its his (twin?) brother Robin Lopez who is 38th in the nation with a 9.4 Blk%.

Schedule:
no top-100 RPI/KP games
edit: Bobcats @ Lakers, 10:30 (and free NBA League Pass!)

Ok, ok, I had this all written, and then a rant came up, in this article Clark Kellogg in his infinite wisdom has deemed Billy Donovan worthy of Coach of the Year, but has left Roy Williams off the list. I'm not saying either deserve it, I'm of the mind that the coach that does the most with the least should win. That said, on a list of ~15 candidates, how can Donovon's name come before Roy Williams. Team record: practically equal, Team schedule: UNC's much harder, plus Roy has had to coach and play freshmen mixed in with an established group, not the exact same team that WON A TITLE LAST YEAR. It seems silly to mention one and not the other. Also, not that I follow these teams, but Oregon? Cal? WTF? Someone obviously loves the Pac-10 more than John.

Go Pack

Were he in the minor leagues, North Carolina State righty Andrew Brackman would rank as the 26th-best pitching prospect, according to Baseball America editor Jim Callis.

You have GOT to be kidding me.

1/25 Power 16

My table will be a bit different this time; hopefully the formatting won't screw up.

Team Name	Kenpom	AP	ESPN Power 16	Average
1. Florida	2	1	1	1.3
2. North Carolina	1	4	4	3
3. UCLA	5	3	2	3.3
4. Wisconsin	7	2	3	4
5. Ohio State	6	5	5	5.3
6. Texas A&M	3	6	9	6
7. Kansas	8	8	7	7.7
8. Duke	4	10	13	9
9. Pittsburgh	12	9	8	9.7
10. Memphis	9	11	10	10
11. Oregon	24	7	6	12.3
12. Butler	18	14	11	14.3
13. Arizona	13	17	18	16
13. Air Force	17	16	15	16
15. Marquette	29	15	12	18.7
16. Washington State	31	20	14	21.7

A Love Affair Finally Ends

I've found FJM to have fallen off the wagon recently, but I enjoyed this gem re: The Man Who Caused Johnny Estrada to Appear in Just 56 Games in 2005 After June 6.

1/25 Daily And-1

Ok, so this is the last header paragraph for a Daily And-1, you should all know the drill by now, and I'm going to start dating them.

1) College Parity - Upsets galore last night as Vandy, Texas Tech, and Georgia took down higher ranked opponents. The Aggies and Wildcats are something of paper tigers, and Kentucky had been streaky of late and lost to a solid Bulldog squad, so this wasn't an unheard of night, just more conference games where anything can happen. Worth noting that Florida must have some heart after gutting out a 3 point win on the road.

2) Lovie's getting the love - The Bears are doing the right thing and stepping to the plate to extend and increase Lovie Smith's lowest in the NFL contract. This will give him the raise he's earned and make the Cowboys opening a non-story over the next two weeks.

And-1) Aussie Tennis Update - Unseeded Serena is on to the finals where she awaits Clijsters/Sharaova (ha, that might average out to a moderatley attractive person). And on the men's side, tomorrow is the Roddick/Federer matchup in the semi-finals. Edit: Federer swept Roddick today in straight sets (still hasn't dropped one this tourney) and the women's final is Serena/Maria

In the future I may lean towards "missing the free throw" here, and skipping out if its as slow as the news has been lately. That or saving one of the college games for some more in depth analysis down here (Texas A&M: Contender/Pretender, perhaps). That way the 2 stories are key, and then the extra And-1 is more of my spin on things, just a thought. I do think rambling out the several smaller stories is not the way to go, sorta makes it silly to call it the "And-1"

Results:
Pistons 103 Bobcats 92
Heels 88 Deacs 60

Tonight:
Clemson @ Duke - are the Tigers for real real?
Oregon @ UW - can the Huskies get back on track?

1/24 Daily And-1

So, an overwhelming majority of you (~83%) voted to stick with the And-1 for now, so this being a democratically run outfit, we'll try the name out. Onto today's news:

1) Panther's Hire Coordinator - Jeff Davidson out of the Belicheck coaching tree via the Cleveland Browns, he was their OC for the last 10 games of the season, and was a part of New England's Super Bowl wins, hopefully we'll get to see more effective use of TE's and better lanes for RB's

2) Upset Specials - Two fairly large upsets last night in college ball, Auburn over Alabama (that's sort of like Duke beating UNC at football), and St. John's over Notre Dame. Both of these were home games, so no huge shock, and both of the upset teams had losses to other crappy teams, ok, not ND, but 'Bama was shaky (check out John's jubilations below for more Auburn praise)

And-1) Ok, it was a pretty weak sports day, Parcells is still quitting, the Deacs are probably going to be overmatched tonight hosting the Heels, and Tank Johnson can go to the Super Bowl (says the judge with the Bears jersey under his robe). But my official And-1 is going to be mentioning BC's possible second to last ACC win, they held off FSU at home and their only other definite winnable game is Miami, sure gonna miss that Sean Williams, maybe he can go to OK St., they need a big man, right?

Schedule:
Pistons @ Bobcats
Heels @ Deacs

Go Pack

Top Five ACC Scorers, by Offensive Rating (as of January 21):

1. Jared Dudley (Byron's faaaaavorite player, and really, person in general)
2. K.C. Rivers
3. Sean Singletary
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Ben McCauley (Go Pack)

Now, tell me, how many of you (yes, all 2.5 of you) would have picked McCauley to have a higher ORtg than Brandan Wright (he's sixth)? Byron, were we aware that McCauley was NCSU's best player? An NCSU player? An ACC player? A basketball player? Just say when.

Oh, by the way, Nick Fazekas would rank second on this list, behind the all-powerful Jared Dudley. For those of you who know who Nick Fazekas is. (Byron does now.)

Yes, Virginia, There is an NCAA Tournament

Who wants to venture a guess as to whether Virginia will earn an at-large bid in the tournament this year? I can't figure them out. They've beaten Arizona, Maryland, and Gonzaga (did you see the Gonzaga game?), but they've also lost to Utah (111) and Happy Appy (119). Blech. Right now, they stand at 11-6, 3-2 in ACC play. Not bad for the 61st-ranked team. Their schedule from here on out, however, seems to be double-or-nothing. Highlights: NCSU, Miami 2x, Wake, and...Longwood. Lowlights: Clemson, Duke, Maryland again, VaTech 2x, Florida State, and Georgia Tech. One could very easily give them just five more wins with that schedule. But then again...did you see the Gonzaga game? (By the way, Kenpom gives them six more wins, throwing them a bone against Florida State at home.) I think they'll get seven more wins (I'll take them over VaTech at home), finishing at 18-11, and earning a low seed in the tournament.

WAR EAGLE

Wow, and I said Alabama was for real. What a crappy game for them. They dropped from 31st to 53rd on the loss, while Auburn jumped from 95th to 79th. 'Atta way to give the home crowd a show, War Eagle. While Free Throw Rate is not a big part of Alabama's game plan, 15.0 will not get you anywhere when your offense doesn't show up (23-60 from the field) and Auburn hits everything they throw up (34-59).

Daily ?????

Ok, so I've got some name ideas, how about the "And-1" or more colloquially the "Tyler" or "Hansbrough". Anyways, I'm also going to defacto include any results of the teams this blog affiliates itself with a list including UNC Basketball (M & W), Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats, and Atlanta Braves. If you have any additions (and no hockey so don't ask) just leave them in the comments.

1) OK St v. OU - OK St holds off a fiesty OU team for a KP upset (though it was in Stillwater) the Cowboys haven't beaten anyone spectacular (Losses to KU & Tex A&M) but the do beat the even competition.

2) Melo & AI - combined for 51 point in a route of the Grizzlies, though it was the Grizzlies.

And 1) Top DT Commits - the fresh UNC coaching staff has reigned in the top non-committed player (94th overall, 3rd DT), pulling the 6'3" 290 lb. Tydreke Powell away from VT and Penn St.

Scores: Raptors 105 Bobcats 84 pretty ugly

oh yeah, and another Bengal got arrested (9 in 9 months)

The First Ever Daily Dish

Now introducing, Ryan's Daily Dish. In an attempt to gain a larger readership (we're at 2.5 and counting) I've decided to use consistent and appropriate capitalization and to deliver to you the top 3 sports stories from the past 24 hours. The number of 24 hour periods missed will be reflected by the number of stories, though there may be "a & b". Today's entry starts with yesterday's and a bit about today. Also, I promise that there will be at least one entry related to college basketball (well, until April).

1) Championship Results
a) Colts over Patriots - Peyton finally gets the demons off his back, or whatever, Golden Boy Brady throws a pick on the seal the game for the Colts, oops, at least the Vinatieri signing didn't backfire.
b) Bears over Saints - The dream ride comes to an end for the Gulf Coast, but the Saints still had an amazing season, they should be able to keep it up with some defensive minded drafting.

2) Parcells Steps Down - Bill Parcells retires as coach of the Cowboys, hopefully the best candidates haven't already been picked over by Cardinals (Wisenhunt) and Steelers (Tomlin), at least he left the franchise in better shape than the Giants or Jets.

3) Marquette v. Pitt - The Golden Eagles pulled off the upset at Pitt last night in OT, this adds to their inconsistency (losses to Providence & ND State wins against Duke, UConn & Pitt.

TITLES!!

ok, here's a new look, i think its an improvement, a little cleaner. John and i will collaborate on the links to the right, and to try and find common ground on the set up. Anyways, any further posts will have titles for easy reference to the right side of the page

Championship Weekend Results

to quote John's entry from last week "Wow, what a game", and even though my mom IMed me the touchdown before it happened its still a happy ending. in summary, on the week Ryan +10 (2-0) and John -2 (1-1) bringing the cumulative playoff numbers to Ryan +22 (9-1) John +10 (7-3). i guess you could call John the Colts, always looking good regular season but lagging in the playoffs, and myself the Patriots, full of heart and coming through in the clutch, or maybe we need a better metaphor. luckily for John I talked him out of picking the Patriots, or else he'd be doomed, ok, maybe that's not the total case, but anyways, i suppose the Super Bowl will be worth 10 points.


in related news, the Heels are back on top of KenPom, with our defense (#2) passing our offense (#5) (probably thanks to the two most recent sloppy games, the DE against Clemson was 69.6). also the strength of schedule is looking sharp at 23rd, and just wait til game at 'Zona gets thrown in.

Championship Game Picks

ok, i hate to post in a hurry (almost as much as i hate to pick in a hurry). I'm giving 6 points to the Colts, b/c i have a man crush on Peyton (well, more like a loathing of Captian Perfect, but who's counting). And 4 points to the Bears, so that i can actually pull for the Saints, but I don't think its gonna happen folks, no Nawleans dream season. It would just be too perfect for both the Colts and Saints to be in the Super Bowl, so i'm balking on picking the Aints, though i think they have a good shot. Alright, now its off to Boone for more crashing through fences.

Well, I've made my picks after hearing that Rodney Harrison will not play in Sunday's game. (Plus, I just can't go against Football Outsiders AND Ron Jaworski.) Backpedaling ahoy, Ryan! I'm assigning four points to a Colts victory and six points to a Saints victory. Here's to the Super Bowl everyone wants.

So, uh...I've re-checked my HTML code, and can't figure out what the hell is up with the table being halfway down the page or why Oregon decided to F up. Maybe a new post on top of the table will help with the spacing issues?

Edit: Nope. Damn it.

Power 16 for January 18

Team	Kenpom	AP	Power 16	Average
1. Florida	2	1	1	1.3
2. North Carolina	1	4	4	3.0
2. UCLA	4	3	2	3.0
4. Wisconsin	6	2	3	3.7
5. Texas A&M	3	8	7	6.0
5. Kansas	8	5	5	6.0
7. Ohio State	5	7	8	6.7
8. Pittsburgh	12	6	6	8.0
9. Duke	7	14	16	12.3
10. Arizona	17	11	10	12.7
11. Memphis	10	17	14	13.7
12. Oregon		26	9	9	14.7
13. Butler	18	18	12	16.0
14. Air Force	22	13	15	16.7
15. Kentucky	14	25	21	20.0
16. Indiana	9	32	Not Rated	20.5
16. Georgia Tech	11	30	Not Rated	20.5

So here's the deal; for the Power 16 from now on we're taking the average of Kenpom rating, AP rank, and ESPN's Power 16 rank. All teams in any of the top 16s were considered; those that were in one or more top 16 but did not make the list are (in order of average score):West Virginia, Connecticut, Louisiana State, Georgetown, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Nevada.

Also, I can't figure out how to get it to show gridlines on Blogger; this format'll have to do.

Wow, what a game. Both Ryan and I finished out the week with two points, giving us both 12 points overall, even though we have different records (John 6-2, Ryan 7-1). All thanks to the greatest quarterback ever, Tom Brady.

Ok, brief post, I gotta run to work

Baltimore (4)
Chicago (3)
New Orleans (2)
New England (1)

And that's the brief version. I'll be back ~3 to 'splain

Ryan's Computer Rankings (Pyth, Def, Cons, Luck, Pyth)
1UCLA
2Duke (yeah, i said Def)
3North Carolina
4Indiana

5West Virginia
6Memphis
7Arizona
8Kansas

9Ohio St.
10Kentucky
11Texas A&M
12Florida

13Missouri St.
14Wisconsin
15Georgetown
16Virginia Tech

ok, i'll explain myself, defense wins championships and its harder to come by. if your team is defensively sound that will be there EVERY GAME offense can come and go, my word is final.

Power 16 for January 11:

1. UCLA
2. UNC
3. West Virginia
4. Wisconsin

5. Kansas
6. Florida
7. Texas A&M
8. Duke

9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Arizona
12. Missouri State

13. Memphis
14. Georgia Tech
15. Georgetown
16. Pittsburgh

Thanks to not having class on Wednesday, my post-video-game-marathon evening was freed to keep Byron awake while I researched this week's playoff games. I think I may actually watch everything I'm in town for, and maybe the ones that I'm not in town for, thanks to Ryan's DVR. I'm basing these picks mostly on rushing DVOA and Weighted Overall DVOA.

4 points: Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks. This one's not even close. Despite what ESPN may try to push on you, this is the least likely of the upsets to occur this weekend. Seattle's run defense sucks; the Bears' doesn't. Chicago is a good team; the Seahawks aren't. End of story.

3 points: Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts. I really struggled to assign point values for the other matchups; I'm really not that sure on any of them. Baltimore's defense is absolutely killer, though, and should be more than capable of stopping both Manning and Addai, or at least slowing them down enough to where the offense can keep up. I'm sensing a low-scoring, close game here, but I feel more confident in Baltimore than I do about the other two teams.

2 points: New England Patriots over San Diego Chargers. While this is my least confident pick, I gave this game two points because of the numbers. Philadelphia and New Orleans are much more evenly matched than the Patriots and the Chargers, both in terms of rushing defense and overall DVOA. I think this will definitely be THE game of the playoffs. The Patriots do a lot of things very well, with rushing defense being one of them. The Chargers, with a respectable defense overall, just do not defend against the rush very well. Both teams have the ability to attack over ground and over air, but I think the Patriots will come out on top. Sorry, Jeff.

1 point: Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans Saints. These are two extremely evenly-matched teams. Their offenses, defenses, and overall DVOA are very similar, but Philadelphia does a bit better on defense. This may be offset by the extra week of rest New Orleans has received; I'm not sure. Whoever the winner is, they'll have trouble matching up against the Bears in the next round, though.

YESSSSSSSS

not only are we #1 in KP-land, but, he (as promised) has added the "Game Plan" section, with the specific game results for tempo and efficiency, boy i'm glad school doesn't start for another day.

Those worthy of enshrinement into the Hall:

Cal Ripken, Jr.
Tony Gwynn
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Harold Baines
Tommy John

Andre Dawson and Harold Baines each had Hall Standard scores of 43, equivalent to those of Willie Stargell and Lou Brock. To me, those are quality Hall of Fame guys. Jim Rice's and Mark McGwire's Hall Standard scores were just below that at 42, equivalent to such enshrined names as Ryne Sandberg, Bill Terry, Ernie Lombardi, Jim Bottomley, and active player Luis Gonzalez. Now, I've never heard of Terry, Lombardi, or Bottomley, but as we get to the bottom of the Hall Standard scores, the only reason folks get voted in is because they're big names, not because of their stats (Hack Wilson, 39; Kirby Puckett, 38; Jackie Robinson, 37). Rice and McGwire are toeing the line in regards to both their stats and their name recognition, and I don't think that someone on the fence should be elected.

In regards to pitchers, I based my cutoff at 41, because that's what John Smoltz' Hall Standard score is, and I think he should definitely be voted in. Both Blyleven and John had Standard scores above that (50 and 44, respectively). For reference, the Hall Standard scores of Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter, and Don Drysdale are 46, 42, and 42, respectively.

It should be interesting to see what percentages Dawson and Baines get; their scores are identical, but I think far fewer voters will check Baines than Dawson. Also, relievers should not be elected into the Hall of Fame, for reasons I don't think I need to get into.

alright, just a quick props to John and myself it was a 10 point perfect weekend for the both of us, all thanks to Tony Homo. UNC held serve at home tonight to defacto take the #1 spot with the UCLA loss. I'd personally give it to Florida combining the stats aspect to the quality win aspect (OSU) but we all know thats not how it really works. anyways, first appearance at #1 in the AP for the heels since 2000-01, suprising. (sorry, got a little link happy)

next weeks' NFL games, so put your thinking caps on...
Indy @ Baltimore
Philly @ N'awlins
Seattle @ Chicago
NE @ San Diego

and to leave everyone with a smile on their face (that's Greg Paulus on the bottom btw):


(yay! a PICTURE on the blog, and a good one at that)

Sorry, I was away from the free world for the past two days moving furniture in Collettsville and forgot they played NFL games on Saturdays now (who knew?). So you'll have to trust me on this one when I say I picked all these games before this weekend. Since the Colts game has already ended by this point, I'll list them as my 1 game. I have not seen any of the Seahawks/Cowboys game yet; after I post I plan to go watch it.

Basically, they're all the home teams for this round; just couldn't see picking against any of them, even though I told Ryan I was picking one away team (I was on the fence about the Cowboys). I'm going: 4 points to the Patriots, 3 points to the Eagles, 2 to the Seahawks, and 1 to the Colts. Yes, that's 1 point that's guaranteed, but I think I earned at least that much with my overall record this season. Hopefully Ryan and I will differ somewhat in our picks for next week.

ok, its time for the games that count, PLAYOFF PICK'EM. i'm going to test out the new system of ranking games in order of confidence and see how it compares to the usual W-L method. i'm all for having a money game, but i dunno which it will be, so that will have to be added PS (or PP post post).

Games (in order of appearance)

Chiefs @ Colts: This goes against the recent article on FO, that defense correlates strongly to playoff success, specifically run defense, but i'll chalk the Colts up to being an anomaly. The Chiefs' pass defense is too leaky and the Colts should build up a healthy lead. Besides, LJ will blow out his ACL in the 2nd quarter, season carry number 436. I'll take the COLTS (3) in a shootout.

Cowboys @ Seahawks: I had my mind made up on this one a while ago, the cowboys couldn't beat several NCAA teams right now, Romo is hitting the rookie wall (ie, when the other team gets your game film) and their defense also can't contain the Seahawks offense. SEAHAWKS (2)

Jets @ Patriots: In an article I was reading there was a conspiracy theory presented saying the Pats threw the game against the Jets earlier so that the Broncos wouldn't make the playoffs, well it worked, and now the Pats get an easy win at home, much easier than against the Broncos. PATRIOTS (4)

Giants @ Eagles: This is the closest game, they split and know each other well. The Giants haven't shown the ability to win in the playoffs with this group of players (see 23-0 last season) and I have no reason to believe they'll turn it around now, other than the X Factor, Tiki busting out to stay on the field. Thats why this one is getting a "1" from me. EAGLES (1)

yeah, yeah, all home teams, but i figure if i guess wrong on the upset and there is one (likely) i'd be 2-2, if i don't guess i'm probably going to be 3-1. Besides, my intuition, stats, and FO predictions all line up, this seems like a solid week.

In other news, John?!?
JOOOOOOOOOOHN?!?!
yeah, a post before 4 would be ideal, i know that his picks are one different then mine, so i trust him if he posts tonight, i just don't know his point values. my guess is he didn't know the games were on saturday, oh well.

Power 16 for January 4:

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Duke
4. UNC

5. West Virginia
6. Connecticut
7. Ohio State
8. Wisconsin

9. Texas A&M
10. Florida
11. Butler
12. Memphis

13. Maryland
14. Alabama
15. Kansas
16. Notre Dame

OH HAPPY DAY

Ryan takes the cake in the last week of the season and proudly/promptly posts the season's results:

Week 17
Ryan: 6-2 (33-47)
John: 4-4 (44-36)
combo platter (mmm, general tso's AND lo mein): 2-1 (19-26)

good year, thanks to everyone involved, especially byron and his computer picks for giving us some excitement a few weeks ago. now: ONTO THE PLAYOFFS, that's right, all this was just a warmup for the serious picking. the matchups are set so get you thinking caps on:
NYJ @ NE
NYG @ PHI
KC @ IND
DAL @ SEA

edit: the Panther's 2007 opponents are out: NFC West (score!) and the AFC South (ouch), along with Green Bay on the road and Dallas at home.

Oh, and an impromptu bowl game pick'em if john reads this before 1 o'clock:
Outback: Penn St over Tenn
Cotton: Auburn over Nebraska
Capital One: Arkansas over Wisconsin
Gator: West Virginia over GT (by a LARGE margain)
Rose: Michigan over USC
Fiesta: Oklahoma over Boise St. (Peterson 245 yds 3 TDs, gets drafted #4 overall to Cleveland)
Orange: Louisville over Wake Forest
Sugar: LSU over ND (i mean, its a home game)
BCS: Ohio St over Florida (greg oden gets his revenge at tight end)
(sorry, no GMAC or Intl bowls)

KenPom watch:
UNC rose to #3 with a strong defensive outing against Dayton allowing 51 pts on 75 poss (67.42) and scoring 81 pts on 76 poss (105.81). this slid the Heels to 5th on offense but 9th on defense.

ok, this is just a prelim post, but in case i don't get to this before tonight:

Washington over New York: No Shockey, teammates not trusting one another, a 2-11 record playing without Strahan, War Eagle will have too much time back there in the pocket tonight and can thus pick apart the weakling Giant secondary.

the rest later......

later it is, i have a UNC Grad App to wrap up, so this will be short and sweet:
jax>kc
stl>min
car>no
sea>tb
ne>ten
gb>chi

yeah, i'm feeling a 1-5, GO PANTHERS!!!

fucking redskins

edit #2: the panthers are one of 5 teams to be alive going into the last week of the season for the last 4 consecutive years (along with seattle, new england, denver, and indy), at least thats something to applaud.

Week 17 Picks:

New York over Washington. War Eagle can't help his defense, unfortunately, which ranks 31st. Blech.

Jacksonville over Kansas City. Question: how, with Larry Johnson, does the Chiefs' rushing offense rank 20th? I don't get it. Anyway, the Jaguars are on fire right now; they shouldn't have too much of a problem in this one.

Minnesota over St. Louis. Question: how, with Chester Taylor, does the Vikings' rushing offense rank 1st? I don't get it. Anyway, the Rams suck total nuts right now; they should have loads of problems in this one.

Tampa Bay over Seattle. Pick'em game. I like the Buccaneers' rushing game in this one (don't ask why I'm so big on rushing games right now).

New England over Tennessee. Go Titans, but I just can't see them pulling this one off. New England is a force right now.

Chicago over Green Bay. The greatest quarterback ever won't be able to do much against the Bears' pass defense, which is ranked 1st. Sorry, Brett.

And the money game of the week:

Carolina over New Orleans. GO PANTHERS SAINTS BOOO YOU LOSE EVERYONE ELSE LOSES SO THE PANTHERS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS ...A guy can dream, right?

some new KenPom thoughts:

he's added a "predicted pace" for each game now, UNC has no game paced under 70 but none over 80. i'm not sure how he got this specific value, but i think it has something to do with weighting the team by their respective rankings, with the dominant team taking over. so, if we had a "predicted" possessions for the FAU game, it'd likely be over 80.

the highest i can find: VMI v. UNC-A (97)
and lowest: Princeton v. generic Ivy opponent (49)

also, Texas A&M SKYROCKETED into the #2 spot by drubbing Grambling 101-27. this is evidence of one of the basic tenets of KenPom, its ALL the games matter, every minute of every game. i'm pretty sure he doesn't have a margin of victory cap on, which is why this win carries so much weight. the same win probably hurt the Aggies' RPI because of a weaker schedule. this brings in some new questions, what happens to teams that don't run up the score? i can't think of any off the top of my head, but what if a (theoretical) team was incredibly moralistic and benched their A team with 10 minutes to go and a 20 point lead? yeah, yeah, its unlikely, but such a team would be hiding in the upper double digit rankings but would probably look better under an RPI microscope, i'll check into this...

also, apparently we have Bob Knight to thank for the breakneck pace of the Big 10 nowadays, before he got their they were apparently a normal league.

NFL Lines:
NYG @ WAS(+3)
JAX(+3) @ KC
STL @ MIN(+3)
CAR @ NO(+3) (waaah?!?)
SEA (+3.5) @ TB (waaaaaaah???!!?)
NE (+3) @ TEN (waaaaaaaaaaaah?!?!?)
GB(+3) @ CHI (ah, thats better)

sooo, money game? i have no clue, but make the NYG/WAS pick before tomorrow

Little late on last week's results, but here they are, with adjusted win-loss records:

John: 4-4 (40-32)
Ryan: 2-6 (27-45)
Combo platter: 1-3 (17-25)

Damn it, combo platter, come on. Bizarro Ryan strikes again, leaving Normal Ryan flapping in the breeze this week. The Patriots' victory pulls John up scratching and clawing to .500 on the week.

Edit: I neglected to include Bonus Ryan's Green Bay pick over Minnesota, earning him a 3-6 record on the week, with a 28-45 record overall.

This week's Power 16, based on Kenpom Rating, SOS, and Consistency:

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Florida
4. Duke

5. UNC
6. Butler
7. Ohio State
8. Maryland

9. Villanova
10. Purdue
11. Texas A&M
12. Kansas

13. Wisconsin
14. Illinois
15. Indiana
16. Virginia Tech

O.O

From Will Carroll, writer for Baseball Prospectus:

"While I can’t give specifics on the deal, there are still at least six teams involved in some discussions centering on Atlanta. The Braves are in full dump mode, trying to get something for Andruw Jones, trying to find Jones’ replacement on the cheap, and working more on the bullpen. Leo Mazzone isn’t there to build a bullpen out of dreck anymore. So how does this all work together? Why trade a young player like Andy LaRoche if they’re trying to control the payroll? Why deal Jones right now rather than at the deadline? The team is determined to find a solid bullpen and think they can do it with a series of deals that include LaRoche, Mike Gonzalez, Andruw Jones, and several CF candidates that I’m told include Rocco Baldelli, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Markakis. The deals appear to also have some other big names like Tim Hudson, Mark Teixeira, and Dontrelle Willis on the periphery. The three team deal that seemed close over the weekend doesn’t seem so close now as the complexity has increased. Remember that John Schuerholz is normally a slow worker, so quiet on this front doesn’t mean that nothing is happening."

in case John missed it, i mean, i know he doesn't read cbs sportsline that often, here are a couple of articles on the Braves' offseason plans:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9884772/1
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9885188/1

well, ok ok, we all know John knew most of what was in there, this can just be for the rest of us (kinda like Festivus). that is, if he ever quits playing ocarina of time, lets see, a 30 hour game, started at 3am this morning, he should be done in time to watch OSU-Florida, i mean, this week's OSU-Florida, not the football game.

Here's my Power 16 for this week, based on strength of schedule and consistency, as was last week's.

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Ohio State
4. Duke

5. UNC
6. Butler
7. Kansas
8. Florida

9. Michigan State
10. Maryland
11. Illinois
12. Villanova

13. Purdue
14. Missouri State
15. Missouri
16. Kentucky

Let the scathing Johnpom remarks begin!

Ryan's Post of NFL Picks (switching back to bizarro for the time being):

NO < NYG i was thinking saints, the giants are in disarray, the saints need the win more
WAS < STL the skins are playing well, and on top of their game, and mr. war eagle should be able to capitalize on a weak secondary
BAL < PIT baltimore should be in total control here, they have a dominant defense and their offense should do enough to win
ATL < CAR the falcons are playing at home for a playoff spot, the panthers' season is all beat up, end of story, that and i can't pick away from home, damn achilles heel
NE < JAX the jags are erratic the pats aren't, and they've switched it on, should be the patriots
CIN > DEN the broncos have their backs against the wall, and cutler is all warmed up, now they just need to make the playoffs
NYJ < MIA the fins are flailing, the jets are streaking and looking for a playoff spot, they should be alright in this one

come on, big money big money big money, daddy needs a new pair of shoes ...

Ryan and I have agreed that while he will pick eight games this week (he needs the bonus points), I'll pick seven as usual. Of the eight possible games, I tossed Tampa Bay/Cleveland because it has no playoff implications and has a higher spread (3) than Washington/St. Louis (2).

New York over New Orleans. This game is essentially a pick'em, but I'm hoping the Giants will want to distance themselves from the playoff pack with a victory here.

Carolina over Atlanta. Go Panthers. Essentially a meaningless victory, since we'll lose next week to the Saints to miss the playoffs anyway (sound familiar?).

Washington over St. Louis. Go War Eagle. That Rams defense just won't be able to stop him.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh. The Ravens are a MUCH more solid team than the Steelers are. Period. Both teams pass fairly well but suck at running, and the Ravens defense is just stellar overall. The Steelers defense stops the rush well, but not the pass.

Cincinnati over Denver. Another pick against the Broncos, but damn, those Bengals are good. They can't stop the pass very well, but Cutler has yet to show me anything in the NFL.

Miami over New York. The Dolphins defense says more to me than the Jets offense here, and the Dolphins have been playing better overall as of late.

And the money game for the week...

New England over Jacksonville. Another very tough one to pick. I'm thinking that the Jaguars* just won't show up today, having been thrown under a bus by the Jaguars**.

ok, so i'm stuck in NO CABLE (except for at sports bars like maybe friday for unc/st. louis please call me about this ok Byron?) LAND. this fact will allow me to go over and update my whole family is staring at me because the tv is on mute and my keyboard is making a lot of noise... anyways.

this post exists for 2 reasons, 1) post the games to pick for the week and 2) update our power 16 pre-big weekend of college hoops (starting tonight with pitt@osu and duke's semi-test against the 'zags, and ending with the pre-BCS championship florida-osu), hopefully my prediction and rankings will turn out better off than a certain other set of predictions of which we won't speak.

1) NFL PICK 'EM - figured we'd get this out of the way for those of you who don't want to read through that other crap to get to the weekend picks, yeah, i'm talking to all of you NFL fans who pick along at home with us each weekend. btw, why don't you all post, i mean, we give you plenty of oppurtunities, oh well, its a mystery. onto this week's games:
NO @ NYG
WAS @ STL
IND @ HOU (hah, just making sure you were still awake)
BAL @ PIT
TB @ CLE
NE @ JAX
CIN @ DEN
NYJ @ MIA
all of these lines are +/-3, so all's fair, though i'm picking GB over Minny tonight for the extra bonus point, i need whatever i can get, now, onto college bball...


2) The Power 16

1 Seeds
1) UCLA - well, they haven't lost, haven't impressed in a while, but they're the most impressive and you can't point to a team thats beaten them
2) Ohio St - yeah, this counts Greg Oden, and they still might lose this weekend, but its at Florida, hopefully the team can live up to their potential inclusive of Oden and aren't thrown off by the addition, some high quality competition should provide a nice peak
3) UNC - yeah, i don't want to put us here, but we haven't lost in a while, i think roy is slowly whipping the boys into shape
4) Arizona - not sure why john 'kempom' abernethy was drooling all over them at #1, but this is supposed to be an adapted version of his ratings, so i'll respect that

2 Seeds
5) Florida - this is sans Horford, which they are for now so the rating reflects that, i think if they weren't the returning champs they'd have one less loss, but thats the price you pay for carrying around that heavy golden belt with built in on-the-back target
6) Wichita St - yeah, yeah, i'm falling for the MVC, i pledge to watch more of their games this year, to see if they're for real
7) Duke - so much to say, McRoberts can carry them through a lot, but to make it through the ACC they're going to need contributions from others, my prediction is 11-5
8) none of these next teams impresses me enough to warrant giving them a 2 seed, maybe coolmanjohnpom can help me out

3 Seeds
9a) Villanova - ummm, again, another one of john's statistical babies, but out of respect they're still around and close to their old ranking, i mean, they lost to drexel for crying out loud, my patience is growing thin captain kenpom
9b) Wisconsin - yeah, they've looked impressive against quality competition, so i'll reward that with a decent ranking, but i'm not going ga-ga over him like a certain roommate of a certain co-author of a certain blog
10) Pittsburgh - no losses until the one to UW, i have a feeling they'll step it up against Ok St and the near-heel jameson
11) Kansas - lots and lots and LOTS of potential, go baby hawks, i would hate to see this team in my bracket come march, then again, its just bill self, i'm not sold on him as a quality coach
12) Southern Illinois - adding on another MVC team, go ahead, call me Craig Littlepage

4 Seeds
13) Butler - an experienced squad with good guard play may suffer some losses, but they also have the ability to beat almost anyone in the country
14) Washington - debuting this week Ryan's front runner for grad school and a team that showed up a decent LSU squad, to they take their place in the rankings
15) Gonzaga - i mean, they've got a killer quality win, (snicker snicker)
16) Maryland - i've got a soft spot for this team, i mean, i hate them because they're Maryland, but they represent the backbone of the ACC, several teams that have good talent, hustle, and are extremely well coached. though i stand by my early opinions about them peaking too early

soooooo, looks like john accidentally hopped on the ryan train this week "wooo woooooo" next stop sub-.500-ville. thank god the Colts came through or we'd both be a paltry 1-7.

John: 3-5 (36-28)
Ryan: 3-5 (25-39)
Combo Platter: 1-4 (16-22) and things were looking so good


today, since there is no more school, i'll also provide a short look into how it went down. we agreed on 5 of the 7 games (including $$). our Panthers optimism obviously cost us, as well as misplaced faith in the Jags and Raiders defense. in the past, John has picked the Panthers with his brain (vs g-men and 'boys) whereas i've used my heart, or rather hope. in my picks, the two i noted doubting as i posted ended up being dead wrong, maybe i should trust my secondary gut feeling more often. the Colts saved the day, artificially inflating our week's results to near .500 status. the games we differed on we split, John opting with the Bills and myself taking the Broncos. let it also be noted that i correctly predicted Champ Bailey's ownership of a certain SoCal pretty boy.

look for some college bball input from me later in the week, as soon as christmas shopping is done and Katelyn is in Chicago i'll be spending my free time in KenPom land (hopefully John can email me a map). its either there or with my new plethora of SNES Roms, who needs a PS3 to stain the carpet when you can play the orginal Mario Cart...

Ok, just in the nick of time, oh, not picking Cowboys Falcons eh? alright then, just in the nick of time by 18 hours...

MIN > NYJ - I was gonna revive bizarro Ryan picks, then i saw this game, hehehehe, Vikes in a WALK, the Jets just don't frighten me that much, and of course, every team the Panthers need to lose will obviously win

MIA > BUF - Ummmmmmm, reason #2 I didn't revive the bizarro picks, Dolphins should take this one pretty easily (sidenote: i checked the DVOA rankings and these teams, reasons #1 and #2, are rediculously close, i may indeed ignore instinct and go back to bizarro, anyways, this is going to be a stream of consciousness post, if you couldn't tell already)

CAR > PIT - gotta go with my home team, as if there was any doubt, no Samoan Wonder = no INTs = Panthers' W, um, yeah, thats it

JAX > TEN - the titans have been just squeaking by against worse teams than the jags*, also, the jags* just ran all over the colts. then again, the jags** did lose to the texans, the redskins, and lets not forget, the texans. i'm (most likely foolishly) banking on the jags* to show up and not the jags**
(sidenote: jags*=good jags, jags**=bad jags, if you needed to read this sidenote, perhaps you should read our blog more often)

DEN > ARZ - ummmm, yes john, they have fallen a long way, but not THAT far, Champ Bailey shows pretty boy what the NFL is all about, the cards offense won't be able to do much, and the Broncos get to jump start their playoff run, (ps: post game the cardinals will wonder why they picked lienart over this other stud Cutler)

OAK > STL - wow, wow, wow, i can't even make a snap judgement here, maybe thats a good thing , ok, got that over with, um, defense wins championships? when in doubt go with the home team? yeah, i'm actually gonna pick the raiders here, gag me

$$: IND > CIN - i haven't picked the colts right in a while, but i don't feel like the Bengals will beat the Colts the right way (running the ball) Carson will get giddy and try to prove he's a top teir QB too, yeah, smart move Carson, smart move, Colts snap back into it and get a convincing Monday Night W. (furthermore, i'm going to predict that john picks the bengals here, if i get that right, and the game wrong, can i get at least 1 point?, thanks) yes, i've officially been resigned to begging and pleading

btw: ATL > DAL, oh yeah, i'm calling this one, and now introducing RB Michael Vick (whom i like much better than QB Michael Vick), if they don't, they're screwed

As of 3:00 on Saturday, the line for Falcons/Cowboys has gone to 4 1/2. We'll stick with Jaguars/Titans and Bengals/Colts.

My Week 15 Picks:

Minnesota over New York. The Vikings' defense, surprisingly, is ranked fourth. The Jets just don't seem to like sweets, because they've turned their noses up at their cupcake schedule, causing their playoff hopes to be somewhat less of a lock with a loss to Buffalo.

Buffalo over Miami. Going with a Bills upset here because of their home-field advantage and their special teams play (ranked second). No other reason, really.

Carolina over Pittsburgh. The Panthers absolutely HAVE to win now, so they will. In dominant fashion.

Jacksonville over Tennessee. While I would love to go with the Titans in this one, they've won four straight, so they'll probably come crashing down against the Jaguars.

Arizona over Denver. Going with the gutsy Cardinals call over a Broncos team in a total tailspin (they've lost their last four).

Oakland over St. Louis. Pick'em game, in my opinion. Why I'm going with the Raiders? Home-field advantage. That's it.

$$

Indianapolis over Cincinnati. I'm guessing we'll see fire in Peyton's eyes after the drubbing against the Jaguars. True, the Colts' rush defense is last in the league, but the Bengals actually don't have a very solid running game, clocking in at a resounding 0.0% DVOA.

Games for Week 15:

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (man, talk about the Broncos falling off the wagon)
St. Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders

$$:

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Note: Jaguars/Titans and Bengals/Colts are both 3 1/2 point spreads. There is one additional 3 1/2 spread game, which is Dallas at Atlanta. I thought Jaguars/Titans and Bengals/Colts would each be tougher to pick than Cowboys/Falcons.

In light of ESPN's Power 16, the latest installment of which includes Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, and Connecticut, I'm offering my list.

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. North Carolina
4. Ohio State

5. Florida
6. Villanova
7. Southern Illinois
8. Wichita State

9. Duke
10. Butler
11. Maryland
12. Michigan State

13. Gonzaga
14. Purdue
15. Kansas
16. LSU

I retract my earlier comment about UCLA not being a big deal. UCLA and Arizona should be considered the top two teams in the country right now. Ohio State, Villanova, Wichita State, and Southern Illinois are all looking extremely solid right now as well. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, still has yet to play anyone of note, but to their credit, they own the seventh-best offense in the country. Their next two games are at Wisconsin and at Oklahoma State (two other overrated teams), so they'll get a chance to show me something then.

Hey guys! It's John, taking a vacation from Kenpom land, finally taking my shift tallying the year-to-date pick'em results.

John: 7-1 (33-23) DAMN what a week.

Ryan: 3-5 (22-34) DAMN what a season. Next year, big guy, next year.

Combined: 3-1 (15-18) Bringing it back, just gotta get on board the John picks train, and the combined results will roll to victory.

Oh, and the Holiday Hawk continues to win; looks like a top seed in the playoffs this year.

Sorry for the delay; had some Blogger technical difficulties. I promise, these are pre-1:00 picks.

Kansas City over Baltimore. The Ravens are due for an upset today.
Atlanta over Tampa Bay. Sorry Bucs, you just look terrible right now.
Minnesota over Detroit. ...But the Lions look even worse. Not really sure how this game has a spread this low.
Tennessee over Houston. The Titans are the bomb diggety.
New York over Carolina. Panthers just have too many injuries to win today against the Giants.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis. Bizarro Jags show up and beat the Colts today.
Philadelphia over Washington. WAR EAGLE NOOOOOO

Edit: New York over Carolina is the money pick for the week.

KC over balt - just a guess, kansas city is rolling, so are the ravens, oh, i mean reeling
ATL over tb this seems to be a given, the bucs can't stop anyone this year, but i'll be pulling for them
MINNY over det - another apparent given
TENN over hou - yeah, the titans are FOR REAL, ok, maybe not, but the texans aren't for real
INDY over jax - almost went the other way, i mean, it seems obvious, but whenever i flip on the colts, they prove me wrong
WASH over philly - don't know why, probably b/c i want the panthers in the playoffs, but the redskins are playing well
HOLI over spr - the holiday hawk wins in a walk, over sprite and sublymonal crap

$$$ Game:
CAR over nyg - like i'd pick it any other way, besides, with the panthers backs to the wall they play the best, and they need to win this game

sorry for the shortened format but exams are calling, too bad we don't know last week's results, maybe if we could sneak them onto kenpom.com someone around here might stumble across them

OK OK, i caved, and technically we tied, so i can't stick john with the responsibility of posting, besides, i think he's lost in kenpom land, JOHN, CAN YOU HEAR ME? TURN LEFT AT Luck/Rnk, RIGHT AT Pyth, ANF FOLLOW THE BLOG HOME

anyways:

Ryan: 4-4 (19-29), ugh ugh ugh ugh

John: 4-4 WOAH (26-22), john is holding above .500, but with some cupcake games this week should be ok

combined: 3-4, (12-17) yeah, that killed the momentum, GONE

Games that won't be on TV but I'd like to watch more than some of the ones that are:

Missouri (9-0) at Purdue (7-1): Missouri remains unbeaten, and Purdue has a little-known star in Carl Landry. Missouri shoots the ball very well and forces turnovers, and Purdue does lots of things well both on offense and defense. Purdue's only loss has come against Georgia Tech while beating Oklahoma, DePaul, and Virginia.

Nebraska (5-1) at Oregon (6-0): Oregon plays killer defense, boasting the best three-point defense in the country. Nebraska, on the other hand, shoots the three-ball the best of anyone in the country. Should be a great matchup.

Wichita State (6-0) at Wyoming (7-1): Love Wichita State; it shoots well and doesn't turn the ball over. They'll get the chance to keep their season perfect against a Wyoming team that does a lot of things well offensively, but has a terrible defense.

UNLV (6-2) at Nevada (7-0): This game will showcase two very capable big men, pitting UNLV's Wendell White versus Nevada's Nick Fazekas, who should be considered a candidate for Player of the Year if his production continues as it has so far.

Washington (7-0) at Gonzaga (8-2): This will be an opportunity for Gonzaga to show the nation that Washington is way overrated. The only thing Washington has done well so far is rebound, but they've done it against far inferior competition (strength of schedule ranked #308). Gonzaga, on the other hand, does everything well. Manhandling will occur.

By the way, everything on TV looks like it will be at least a decent matchup, with the notable exception of Toledo at Kansas. Toledo? At Kansas? Give me a break. All right, it's a hawk, but there's nothing jay about it.

All seven of our Week 14 games at or under 3 are at 1:00 on Sunday...weird. I'm holding off on making picks because I'm sure I'll have plenty of dead time before exams begin to do research, but here are the matchups:

Baltimore at Kansas City
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Minnesota at Detroit
Tennessee at Houston (!)
New York at Carolina
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Washington

A number of money-game options; which do we want to go with? Ravens/Chiefs (3)? Giants/Panthers (3)? Or Colts/Jaguars (1.5)?

I wanted to make a quick note about a high-visibility team that no one seems to be paying attention to nationally - Michigan State. Their record is 8-2, with their two losses coming against strong Maryland and Boston College teams. Their strength of schedule isn't remarkable, at 81st in the nation, but two quality wins have been against Texas (won a nail-biter by two) and Bradley, whom they blew out by 29 points. Most remarkable has been their margin of victory; they've beaten teams by an average of 25 points, including the two-point win over Texas. Once conference play begins, we'll get a chance to see how strong the team really is, or if these lopsided victories are solely the result of a cupcake schedule.

The Braves have traded Horacio Ramirez to the Mariners for Rafael Soriano. For those who don't know that much about Soriano (Ryan), he was second on the team in VORP, behind fellow reliever J.J. Putz. He threw 60 innings this year in relief, with 6.60 hits/9 innings, 3.15 walks/9, 9.75 strikeouts/9, and 0.90 home runs/9. He finished with a 2.25 ERA. His 25.3 VORP would have led Braves relievers (for reference, our best reliever, Oscar Villarreal, had a VORP of 20.7). Notable relievers just ahead of Soriano in VORP include Billy Wagner, Dan Wheeler (26.0 VORP each), and Trevor Hoffman (25.7).

It's hard to tell now which team will end up on the upside of this trade in the long run, given each pitchers' injury history, in addition to the fact that it's usually better to trade a reliever for a starter rather than the other way around, but for now, the Mariners needed a solid starter, and the Braves needed a bullpen ace. The Braves will still make a few more moves this winter, likely adding another bullpen arm and possibly a new left fielder and/or second baseman, but our first trade of the winter looks like a good one.

I'll provide a link to Baseball America's analysis of the trade when one goes up.

Speaking of teams being overrated, why do they even have college basketball rankings this early in the season? Either teams should be ranked based on how good voters think they'll end up being, or they should be ranked based on how the field looks right now. Either keep the rankings schedules as they are now, and just rank teams based on the current season's performance to date, or start ranking teams after non-conference play, so everyone has a much clearer picture of how things are shaping up.

I believe that Butler will enter then NCAA tournament with 2 or more losses and a seed of third or lower

(we'll put this on the short list to be checked back on in March)

In other news, if Butler wins out on the season (their best in-conference opponent is Loyola Chicago), they'll be deserving of a #1 seed in the tournament. Also, Tanyon Sturtze signed with the Braves yesterday.

I'm not really sure what the big deal is with UCLA. Their quality wins? Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Come on, guys. UCLA will get a chance to impress me when they play Texas A&M on the 9th (whom, incidentally, is way overrated as well). Also, Pittsburgh? Their best win is Florida State! Neither of these teams have played a hard schedule so far, and don't deserve nearly as much credit as they've been getting, or that a team like Gonzaga or Air Force deserves.

JOHN NEVER USES THIS BOARD

HE SUCKS

I'M NOT POSTING THE PICK'EM RESULTS BECAUSE ITS HIS DUTY (hehe duty) TO DO SO

HE TALKS ABOUT NCAA BASKETBALL ALL THE TIME

BUTLER IS AMAZING AAAAAMMAAAAAAZZINNG JOHN SAYS

THEY DESERVE A NO. 1 john says

BUT WILL HE POST IT NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

"THERE'S BRAVES NEWS" whines john, yet he IMs me that sturtz signs with us

grrrrrrrrrrr

ok, here are the knowns:
1) i'm averaging 3-5 on the season (37.5% correct)
2) my logic works the same every week
3) i've only had one week above .500 ball

thus, if i use my logic, and guess all them games, THEN SWITCH THE PICKS, i have a good shot at ending up above .500. and that would make me pretty happy. so, here goes, "ryan's week of bizarro picks", oh yeah, my picks are bolded this week, instead in the right order, b/c i pasted them in and am too lazy to erase over and reorder them on each line

falcons at REDSKINS: just because the redskins run d showed up last week doesn't mean its here to stay, and of course the falcons have the ability to hang around and muck up the playoff log jam. besides, its another team galvanized by outsiders doubting them (no, i don't mean FO, but i guess they doubt them, too). sounds like the falcons look solid here (ps, i wrote this one last, so when i say "another" i'm referring to... well, just read on and you'll see)

jets at PACKERS: the packers are playing decent football of late, but so are the jets. well, lets apply the transitive property, jets 17 = ne 14 and ne 35 = gb 0. using subtraction (-38) or division (-42.5) it doesn't look good for the packers, besides, eric mangini is a GENIUS.

JAGS at dolphins: hmmm, one of these teams is erratic, one has won 4 in a row. now, normal ryan would be pissed off at the jags for being so wishy-washy. he'd probably take that anger out on them and pick against them because they screwed him over last week, well then, using that logic bizarro ryan will take the jaguars.

TEXANS at raiders: the raiders defense is really actually good, but they play in the AFC West, so it hasn't been that evident in the results column, also, andrew walter gets relieved of duty this week, so my gut says raiders

$$$ GAME
COWBOYS at giants: the g-men finally have their starting d-line back together, which has been part of the reason that the team has been losing so much. the cowboys' qb change didn't actually make the o-line any better, so i'm of the opinion the giants will be able to rattle romo. plus, all the "the giants suck" talk will motivate them, nothing like a little bulletin board material

PANTHERS at eagles: ok, bizarro world for almost all of them, the panthers really need this one; de(shaun & angelo) should have a good game, its almost like the panthers only win when their back is to the wall

besides, could i really enjoy that extra point if it came at the panthers' expense? nope, no way

PS good luck to the tar heel women's soccer team tomorrow in the nat'l championship game

Week 13 picks:

Washington over Atlanta. Go War Eagle!

Green Bay over New York. The Jets seem to be fading, even with their CUPCAKE schedule. The greatest quarterback ever shouldn't have a problem.

Jacksonville over Miami. Those inconsistent Jaguars should win a close, low-scoring game over the Dolphins.

Houston over Oakland. I <3 the Texans' wide receivers, even more than I <3 the Raiders' defense.

Dallas over New York. The Cowboys seem unstoppable right now, but if anyone can beat them, it's the Giants. There might be a tad too much internal strife right now for that to happen, though.

Carolina over Philadelphia. I'm really not sure how this game's line is +/- 3, but it is. Panthers win in dominant fashion.

I'm not really sure about the money game for the week...Cowboys/Giants or Jaguars/Dolphins seem to be the best options. If we want to put big-ticket money games on hiatus for a week, though, Packers/Jets actually seems to be the closest matchup. That's my vote.