Friday, December 29

some new KenPom thoughts:

he's added a "predicted pace" for each game now, UNC has no game paced under 70 but none over 80. i'm not sure how he got this specific value, but i think it has something to do with weighting the team by their respective rankings, with the dominant team taking over. so, if we had a "predicted" possessions for the FAU game, it'd likely be over 80.

the highest i can find: VMI v. UNC-A (97)
and lowest: Princeton v. generic Ivy opponent (49)

also, Texas A&M SKYROCKETED into the #2 spot by drubbing Grambling 101-27. this is evidence of one of the basic tenets of KenPom, its ALL the games matter, every minute of every game. i'm pretty sure he doesn't have a margin of victory cap on, which is why this win carries so much weight. the same win probably hurt the Aggies' RPI because of a weaker schedule. this brings in some new questions, what happens to teams that don't run up the score? i can't think of any off the top of my head, but what if a (theoretical) team was incredibly moralistic and benched their A team with 10 minutes to go and a 20 point lead? yeah, yeah, its unlikely, but such a team would be hiding in the upper double digit rankings but would probably look better under an RPI microscope, i'll check into this...

also, apparently we have Bob Knight to thank for the breakneck pace of the Big 10 nowadays, before he got their they were apparently a normal league.

NFL Lines:
NYG @ WAS(+3)
JAX(+3) @ KC
STL @ MIN(+3)
CAR @ NO(+3) (waaah?!?)
SEA (+3.5) @ TB (waaaaaaah???!!?)
NE (+3) @ TEN (waaaaaaaaaaaah?!?!?)
GB(+3) @ CHI (ah, thats better)

sooo, money game? i have no clue, but make the NYG/WAS pick before tomorrow


John said...

John and Byron (in unison): "What is this, the Big Ten?"

John said...

Wait, hang on, am I reading this correctly? The Panthers, the Buccaneers, and the Titans are ALL FAVORED TO WIN?!?!? Yes, yes, I am reading that correctly. Wow. Vegas, you're losing it.

John said...

Oh, and no, Kenpom doesn't have a victory cap on.