Wednesday, November 13

UVA vs VCU Super Tuesday

  The top teams in the country were playing in Chicago, but the undercard for the top ten battles was No.14 VCU at No 25 UVA.  Here are my observations from the game:
  • UVA Offensive Rebounding - In games against UNC last year, UVA abandoned any chance of offensive rebounds by retreating into their defense after a shot was missed.   That was not the case tonight, as UVA bigs, especially subs, crashed the boards.  There could be several reasons for this, but UVA had 12 offensive rebounds.  VCU only had 20 defensive boards.
  • Fouls - We know the NCAA wants hand checks called more tightly, and boy, were there lots of whistles.  There were 48 fouls called in this game.  Both teams were in the double bonus with five minutes left in the first half.  Unfortunately, neither team could take advantage.  UVA shot 19/33 (there were a great many bailout calls) for 57.6 % and VCU was even worse, 6/15 or 40 %. 
  • VCU Ball Movement - VCU didn't take many three point shots, but instead moved the ball around and into the post.  Terrance Shannon for VCU was the only post player who knew what to do with the ball once he got it.  Treveon Graham got plenty of looks running off picks going towards the basket.  VCU hit two late 3's to close the gap and eventually beat UVA. 
  • HAVOC - VCU's defense doesn't just get turnovers in the areas you expect, they also force them close to the opponent's basket.  Once teams hurriedly get the ball across the timeline, you'll see VCU double up on the guy who catches the ball, leading to a bad pass or jump ball tie-up around the top of the key.
  • UVA vs VCU rivalry - The Battle for the Commonwealth will hopefully be a recurring feature.  Very different schools, fan bases and styles of basketball.  Great game, great fans, both sides got good and rowdy.  Can't wait for the return feature in Richmond next season.
  • Kicks - Can you tell who's a scrub based on the footwear you see below?

Still, scrubs at a lot of other schools don't get sweet kicks like these.  Good on you, UVA. 

Thursday, March 7

Maryland Stats


$`Four Factors`
       OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 Maryland     Total 1.16   0.55   0.31 0.44   0.18
2 Maryland oppTotals 1.00   0.45   0.34 0.24   0.21

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock       9 2.11 0.14   0.75   0.75     0.67   0.07   0.29  0.97 0.50   1.00  0.09   0.11
McAdoo       14 0.71 0.25   0.80   0.27      NaN   0.04   0.03  0.38 0.45   0.27  0.05   0.14
Hubert        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Strickland    5 1.60 0.12   1.00   0.50      NaN   0.05   0.04  0.69 1.00   0.50  0.38   0.00
Paige        15 0.60 0.27    NaN   0.43     0.43   0.00   0.10  0.64 0.00   0.64  0.15   0.53
James        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Hairston     17 1.29 0.32   0.67   0.47     0.29   0.12   0.17  0.58 0.60   0.53  0.05   0.06
Johnson       2 2.00 0.17   1.00   0.33      NaN   0.33   0.14  0.52 0.67   0.33  0.00   0.00
McDonald      6 1.17 0.16    NaN   0.43     0.25   0.06   0.05  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00   0.00
Tokoto        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons      NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Total        68 1.16 1.00   0.79   0.45     0.42   0.31   0.61  0.60 0.44   0.55  0.52   0.18
oppTotals    68 1.00 1.00   0.73   0.43     0.13   0.34   0.66  0.49 0.24   0.45  0.33   0.21

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  298 1.40 0.19   0.75   0.49     0.45   0.07   0.15  0.64 0.21   0.62  0.13   0.11
2      McAdoo  469 0.93 0.29   0.57   0.45     0.00   0.09   0.18  0.48 0.39   0.45  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   29 1.21 0.05   0.21   0.53      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.48 0.47   0.53  0.01   0.45
4  Strickland  260 0.92 0.18   0.66   0.44     0.19   0.02   0.08  0.50 0.44   0.45  0.21   0.14
5       Paige  310 0.73 0.21   0.85   0.33     0.33   0.01   0.10  0.46 0.20   0.41  0.22   0.23
6       James   59 1.07 0.12   0.56   0.50      NaN   0.09   0.17  0.52 0.30   0.50  0.03   0.34
7    Hairston  317 1.20 0.29   0.77   0.42     0.38   0.08   0.12  0.58 0.30   0.54  0.09   0.10
8     Johnson  159 1.19 0.25   0.62   0.53      NaN   0.09   0.23  0.54 0.15   0.53  0.04   0.10
9    McDonald  180 1.01 0.23   0.75   0.38     0.38   0.04   0.08  0.52 0.17   0.49  0.11   0.11
10     Tokoto   89 1.00 0.18   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.35   0.53  0.12   0.30
11      Davis   10 0.80 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.41   0.70
12    Simmons   21 2.67 0.06   0.80   0.67      NaN   0.13   0.12  0.69 0.28   0.67  0.05   0.29
13      Total 2180 1.07 1.00   0.66   0.45     0.38   0.36   0.68  0.53 0.28   0.50  0.61   0.17
14   oppTotal 2180 0.94 1.00   0.69   0.42     0.34   0.30   0.65  0.50 0.25   0.47  0.49   0.22





Wednesday, March 6

Florida St Stats






$`Four Factors`
           OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 FloridaState     Total 1.22   0.63   0.26 0.18   0.17
2 FloridaState oppTotals 0.89   0.40   0.31 0.13   0.23

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      12 1.67 0.21   0.00   0.73     0.57   0.04   0.26  0.87 0.09   0.91  0.18   0.17
McAdoo       16 1.31 0.33   1.00   0.67      NaN   0.10   0.07  0.68 0.07   0.67  0.00   0.19
Hubert        1 2.00 0.21    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.50   0.33  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.00   1.00
Strickland    6 0.83 0.13   0.50   0.40      NaN   0.00   0.04  0.43 0.40   0.40  0.18   0.00
Paige         9 0.67 0.16   0.50   0.40     1.00   0.00   0.09  0.51 0.40   0.50  0.34   0.33
James         1 2.00 0.15    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.00   0.00  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.00   0.00
Hairston      9 1.78 0.19    NaN   0.55     0.67   0.10   0.07  0.73 0.00   0.73  0.04   0.00
Johnson       2 1.00 0.15    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.00   0.12  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00   0.00
McDonald      7 0.43 0.22   0.75   0.00     0.00   0.00   0.15  0.32 1.33   0.00  0.00   0.29
Tokoto       NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Davis         0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Simmons       0  NaN 0.00    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.25   0.17  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.22    NaN
Total        65 1.22 1.00   0.60   0.55     0.60   0.26   0.62  0.65 0.18   0.63  0.65   0.17
oppTotals    65 0.89 1.00   1.00   0.37     0.22   0.31   0.70  0.44 0.13   0.40  0.43   0.23

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  289 1.38 0.19   0.75   0.49     0.44   0.07   0.14  0.63 0.20   0.61  0.13   0.11
2      McAdoo  454 0.94 0.29   0.56   0.45     0.00   0.09   0.19  0.48 0.38   0.45  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   29 1.21 0.05   0.21   0.53      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.48 0.47   0.53  0.01   0.45
4  Strickland  255 0.90 0.18   0.64   0.44     0.19   0.02   0.08  0.50 0.43   0.45  0.20   0.14
5       Paige  295 0.73 0.20   0.85   0.33     0.32   0.01   0.10  0.45 0.21   0.41  0.22   0.21
6       James   59 1.07 0.12   0.56   0.50      NaN   0.09   0.17  0.52 0.30   0.50  0.03   0.34
7    Hairston  300 1.20 0.28   0.78   0.42     0.39   0.08   0.11  0.58 0.29   0.54  0.09   0.11
8     Johnson  157 1.18 0.25   0.59   0.54      NaN   0.09   0.24  0.55 0.14   0.54  0.04   0.10
9    McDonald  174 1.01 0.23   0.75   0.38     0.39   0.04   0.08  0.52 0.18   0.49  0.11   0.11
10     Tokoto   89 1.00 0.18   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.35   0.53  0.13   0.30
11      Davis   10 0.80 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.41   0.70
12    Simmons   21 2.67 0.06   0.80   0.67      NaN   0.13   0.12  0.69 0.28   0.67  0.05   0.29
13      Total 2112 1.07 1.00   0.65   0.45     0.37   0.36   0.69  0.53 0.28   0.50  0.61   0.17
14   oppTotal 2112 0.94 1.00   0.69   0.42     0.35   0.30   0.65  0.51 0.25   0.47  0.50   0.22

Tuesday, February 26

Heels Attack NC State's Slow Defense



Here's a breakdown of a play the Heels ran to start their run against NC State on Saturday.  This series shows how the Heels attacked the Wolfpack and used a simple curl play that could have ended up as an easy layup, but ended up as an even better three pointer for Reggie Bullock.


Marcus Paige, the blur in white running towards the baseline, goes to set a pick for Bullock.  Lorenzo Brown(?), previously guarding Paige, calls down to Reggie Bullock’s (35 in white) man (Warren or Purvis?) to tell him a pick is coming.  


Reggie Bullock, starts running towards the top of the 3 point line, away from his man.  Paige is ready to set a pick, but is more than an arm’s length away from Bullock’s defender.  Lorenzo Brown remains at the right hand side of the free throw line, watching the ball but orienting his body towards Paige and Bullock.  At this point, there are 4 black jerseys around the FT line guarding 3 white jerseys. 

Bullock’s man is still in contact with Bullock.  If Paige were to sprint towards the opposite block and demand the ball (see green arrow below), no one would be guarding him.  It’s the kind of quick realization that it’s not fair to expect of a freshman, especially a point guard.  It’s likely that Paige is just focusing on running the play for Bullock, which is appropriate.   Breaking plays for easy layups is something that guys in the NBA don’t always do, so it’s not fair to expect the same of an 18 year old freshman.  Still, it speaks to State’s luck that the Heels didn’t recognize this opportunity for an easy layup, regardless of the outcome of this play.




Lorenzo Brown sees Bullock running towards the top of the 3 point line, but remains with a foot in the paint.  James Michael McAdoo waits at the top of the key to screen whoever comes out to guard Bullock.  Marcus Paige is hugged by Bullock’s former defender.



Brown tries to step out to challenge Bullock on the curl.    He meets McAdoo squarely in the chest.  McAdoo’s defender, Richard Howell, standing at the foot of the “A” in the paint, is not hedging.  Since Howell is the best rebounder on either team, he was likely told to stay around the paint.  This leaves Lorenzo Brown the task of getting around McAdoo quickly to challenge the pass and shot.


As Bullock squares up and begins his shooting motion, Brown is still 6 feet away, with McAdoo still in contact.  McAdoo’s man, Richard Howell, stays at the top of the paint to be in prime rebounding position.


The result is an open three for a 44% shooter.  The shot goes in, and this is the start of the 13-4 the Heels put together from 8:22 to the NC State timeout at 4:58. That run broke the game open for the Heels and was pivotal for the Carolina victory.

Monday, February 25

GT Stats





$`Four Factors`
     OPP     NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 GaTech    Total 0.97   0.42   0.26 0.26   0.12
2 GaTech OppTotal 0.81   0.47   0.32 0.19   0.26















$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock       9 1.00 0.17    NaN   0.44     0.25   0.00   0.25  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00   0.00
McAdoo       20 1.10 0.32   0.67   0.47      NaN   0.11   0.21  0.51 0.32   0.47  0.09   0.10
Hubert        1 0.00 0.14    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00   1.00
Strickland    7 0.57 0.13    NaN   0.22      NaN   0.06   0.14  0.22 0.00   0.22  0.37   0.00
Paige        10 0.80 0.19   1.00   0.00     0.00   0.00   0.04  0.53 2.00   0.00  0.27   0.20
James        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Hairston     11 0.91 0.20   1.00   0.27     0.14   0.12   0.03  0.32 0.07   0.30  0.10   0.00
Johnson       2 1.00 0.16    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.00   0.29  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.23   0.00
McDonald     11 1.36 0.36   0.50   0.62     0.67   0.00   0.12  0.84 0.25   0.88  0.19   0.18
Tokoto        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.11   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.14   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Total        72 0.97 1.00   0.82   0.38     0.30   0.26   0.71  0.48 0.26   0.42  0.76   0.12
OppTotal     72 0.81 1.00   0.36   0.40     0.38   0.32   0.74  0.46 0.19   0.47  0.48   0.26

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  259 1.33 0.19   0.80   0.47     0.44   0.07   0.13  0.62 0.20   0.59  0.13   0.12
2      McAdoo  401 0.95 0.28   0.57   0.45     0.00   0.09   0.20  0.48 0.42   0.45  0.06   0.17
3      Hubert   27 1.22 0.05   0.21   0.52      NaN   0.07   0.10  0.47 0.48   0.52  0.01   0.41
4  Strickland  231 0.87 0.18   0.64   0.42     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.48 0.46   0.43  0.20   0.15
5       Paige  266 0.70 0.21   0.87   0.31     0.30   0.01   0.10  0.43 0.20   0.39  0.21   0.22
6       James   57 1.07 0.12   0.56   0.49      NaN   0.09   0.18  0.51 0.30   0.49  0.03   0.33
7    Hairston  269 1.19 0.30   0.79   0.42     0.38   0.09   0.11  0.58 0.30   0.53  0.10   0.12
8     Johnson  148 1.20 0.25   0.61   0.55      NaN   0.09   0.25  0.55 0.12   0.55  0.04   0.11
9    McDonald  157 1.04 0.24   0.73   0.40     0.40   0.04   0.07  0.53 0.15   0.51  0.12   0.11
10     Tokoto   89 1.00 0.18   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.35   0.53  0.13   0.29
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.43   0.67
12    Simmons   21 2.67 0.06   0.80   0.69      NaN   0.13   0.12  0.71 0.29   0.69  0.05   0.29
13      Total 1912 1.06 1.00   0.66   0.44     0.37   0.37   0.69  0.52 0.28   0.50  0.60   0.18
14   oppTotal 1912 0.95 1.00   0.69   0.42     0.36   0.29   0.64  0.51 0.26   0.48  0.49   0.21

Sunday, February 17

UVA Stats


$`Four Factors`
  OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 UVA     Total 1.35    0.6   0.32 0.51    0.1
2 UVA oppTotals 1.17    0.7   0.12 0.21    0.2

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock       9 1.22 0.14   0.50   0.38     0.43   0.06   0.05  0.56 0.50   0.56  0.15   0.11
McAdoo       13 0.69 0.25   0.25   0.40      NaN   0.08   0.44  0.38 0.40   0.40  0.05   0.23
Hubert        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Strickland   10 1.20 0.19   0.75   0.60      NaN   0.00   0.06  0.70 1.60   0.60  0.28   0.10
Paige        13 1.31 0.25   1.00   0.44     0.60   0.04   0.17  0.73 0.67   0.61  0.14   0.15
James        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Hairston     16 1.81 0.32   0.88   0.57     0.50   0.08   0.29  0.83 0.57   0.79  0.00   0.00
Johnson       3 2.00 0.16    NaN   0.75      NaN   0.11   0.43  0.75 0.00   0.75  0.00   0.00
McDonald      6 1.17 0.19    NaN   0.43     0.25   0.07   0.00  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.15   0.00
Tokoto        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.46    NaN
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.20   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Total        69 1.35 1.00   0.73   0.49     0.46   0.32   0.92  0.64 0.51   0.60  0.62   0.10
oppTotals    69 1.17 1.00   0.64   0.58     0.57   0.12   0.62  0.70 0.21   0.70  0.39   0.20

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  250 1.34 0.19   0.80   0.47     0.45   0.07   0.12  0.62 0.20   0.60  0.13   0.12
2      McAdoo  381 0.94 0.28   0.56   0.45     0.00   0.09   0.20  0.48 0.43   0.45  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   26 1.27 0.05   0.21   0.52      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.47 0.48   0.52  0.01   0.38
4  Strickland  224 0.88 0.18   0.64   0.43     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.49 0.49   0.45  0.20   0.15
5       Paige  256 0.70 0.21   0.84   0.32     0.31   0.01   0.10  0.43 0.16   0.39  0.21   0.22
6       James   57 1.07 0.12   0.56   0.49      NaN   0.09   0.18  0.51 0.30   0.49  0.03   0.33
7    Hairston  257 1.21 0.30   0.79   0.43     0.39   0.08   0.12  0.59 0.31   0.55  0.10   0.12
8     Johnson  146 1.20 0.26   0.61   0.55      NaN   0.09   0.24  0.55 0.12   0.55  0.04   0.11
9    McDonald  146 1.02 0.23   0.75   0.38     0.38   0.04   0.07  0.51 0.15   0.49  0.12   0.11
10     Tokoto   89 1.00 0.19   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.35   0.53  0.13   0.29
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.67
12    Simmons   21 2.67 0.06   0.80   0.69      NaN   0.14   0.12  0.71 0.29   0.69  0.05   0.29
13      Total 1840 1.07 1.00   0.65   0.44     0.37   0.37   0.69  0.53 0.29   0.50  0.60   0.18
14   oppTotal 1840 0.95 1.00   0.70   0.42     0.36   0.29   0.63  0.51 0.27   0.48  0.49   0.21




Duke Numbers



$`Four Factors`
   OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 Duke     Total 0.97   0.42   0.43 0.35   0.19
2 Duke oppTotals 1.04   0.50   0.38 0.36   0.24



$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      11 1.36 0.17   0.25   0.50     0.57   0.07   0.17  0.64 0.40   0.70  0.04   0.18
McAdoo       12 0.75 0.20   0.20   0.33      NaN   0.10   0.15  0.32 0.42   0.33  0.05   0.17
Hubert        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Strickland   12 1.17 0.20   1.00   0.62      NaN   0.00   0.07  0.72 0.50   0.62  0.00   0.17
Paige         8 0.50 0.15    NaN   0.22     0.00   0.06   0.12  0.22 0.00   0.22  0.05   0.12
James        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Hairston     18 1.28 0.30   0.75   0.44     0.14   0.18   0.04  0.53 0.44   0.47  0.14   0.17
Johnson       3 0.00 0.43    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.00   0.33  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.00   0.33
McDonald      5 0.40 0.14    NaN   0.17     0.00   0.09   0.12  0.17 0.00   0.17  0.08   0.20
Tokoto        3 0.33 0.57   0.50   0.00      NaN   0.00   0.00  0.27 2.00   0.00  0.53   0.33
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Total        70 0.97 1.00   0.57   0.38     0.28   0.43   0.56  0.45 0.35   0.42  0.32   0.19
oppTotals    70 1.04 1.00   0.85   0.45     0.38   0.38   0.59  0.56 0.36   0.50  0.36   0.24

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  241 1.34 0.19   0.83   0.48     0.45   0.07   0.13  0.62 0.19   0.60  0.13   0.12
2      McAdoo  368 0.95 0.28   0.57   0.45     0.00   0.09   0.19  0.48 0.43   0.45  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   26 1.27 0.05   0.21   0.52      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.47 0.48   0.52  0.01   0.38
4  Strickland  214 0.86 0.18   0.62   0.43     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.49 0.45   0.44  0.19   0.15
5       Paige  243 0.66 0.21   0.80   0.32     0.29   0.01   0.10  0.41 0.14   0.38  0.21   0.22
6       James   57 1.07 0.12   0.56   0.49      NaN   0.09   0.17  0.51 0.30   0.49  0.03   0.33
7    Hairston  241 1.17 0.30   0.78   0.42     0.38   0.08   0.11  0.57 0.29   0.53  0.11   0.13
8     Johnson  143 1.18 0.26   0.61   0.54      NaN   0.09   0.24  0.55 0.12   0.54  0.04   0.11
9    McDonald  140 1.01 0.23   0.75   0.38     0.39   0.04   0.07  0.52 0.16   0.49  0.11   0.11
10     Tokoto   89 1.00 0.19   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.35   0.53  0.13   0.29
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.67
12    Simmons   21 2.67 0.07   0.80   0.69      NaN   0.15   0.12  0.71 0.29   0.69  0.06   0.29
13      Total 1771 1.06 1.00   0.64   0.44     0.36   0.37   0.69  0.52 0.28   0.50  0.60   0.18
14   oppTotal 1771 0.94 1.00   0.70   0.41     0.35   0.30   0.63  0.50 0.27   0.47  0.50   0.21

Tuesday, February 5

Wake Write Up





$`Four Factors`
         OPP     NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 WakeForest    Total 1.10   0.59   0.26 0.40   0.18
2 WakeForest oppTotal 0.78   0.45   0.18 0.31   0.27


$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      13 1.77 0.25   1.00   0.70     0.80   0.00   0.10  0.94 0.50   0.90  0.14   0.08
McAdoo       16 1.25 0.34   0.55   0.58      NaN   0.10   0.15  0.59 0.92   0.58  0.10   0.06
Hubert        1 2.00 0.05    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.10   0.11  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.11   0.00
Strickland    6 0.33 0.13   0.00   0.25      NaN   0.00   0.21  0.20 0.50   0.25  0.27   0.17
Paige        10 0.70 0.20   0.00   0.50     0.33   0.00   0.29  0.54 0.17   0.58  0.20   0.40
James         4 0.50 0.14    NaN   0.33      NaN   0.08   0.33  0.33 0.00   0.33  0.00   0.50
Hairston      6 1.83 0.25   0.50   0.75     0.67   0.10   0.00  0.83 1.50   1.00  0.21   0.00
Johnson       6 1.00 0.22    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.00   0.33  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00   0.00
McDonald      6 1.00 0.20    NaN   0.33     0.50   0.00   0.08  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.17   0.00
Tokoto        6 0.33 0.28    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.00   0.00  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00   0.67
Davis         0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.50   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.42    NaN
Simmons       2 2.00 0.08    NaN   0.67      NaN   0.18   0.09  0.67 0.00   0.67  0.00   0.50
Total        79 1.10 1.00   0.56   0.52     0.60   0.26   0.88  0.60 0.40   0.59  0.62   0.18
oppTotal     79 0.78 1.00   0.71   0.44     0.11   0.18   0.77  0.50 0.31   0.45  0.58   0.27

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  223 1.32 0.20   0.89   0.47     0.44   0.07   0.12  0.62 0.17   0.59  0.14   0.12
2      McAdoo  341 0.99 0.28   0.59   0.46     0.00   0.10   0.19  0.50 0.45   0.46  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   26 1.19 0.05   0.21   0.50      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.45 0.50   0.50  0.02   0.38
4  Strickland  198 0.85 0.18   0.60   0.42     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.48 0.46   0.44  0.20   0.16
5       Paige  226 0.69 0.21   0.80   0.33     0.31   0.01   0.10  0.44 0.15   0.41  0.22   0.23
6       James   54 1.13 0.12   0.56   0.50      NaN   0.09   0.18  0.52 0.31   0.50  0.03   0.31
7    Hairston  211 1.17 0.30   0.79   0.42     0.39   0.08   0.12  0.58 0.30   0.54  0.11   0.12
8     Johnson  133 1.21 0.25   0.56   0.56      NaN   0.09   0.24  0.56 0.12   0.56  0.04   0.11
9    McDonald  126 1.03 0.24   0.75   0.38     0.40   0.04   0.07  0.53 0.17   0.50  0.12   0.11
10     Tokoto   85 1.01 0.19   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.09   0.12  0.52 0.33   0.53  0.13   0.29
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.04  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.43   0.67
12    Simmons   21 2.48 0.07   0.80   0.67      NaN   0.15   0.11  0.70 0.30   0.67  0.04   0.29
13      Total 1633 1.07 1.00   0.65   0.45     0.37   0.37   0.69  0.53 0.28   0.50  0.61   0.18
14   oppTotal 1633 0.92 1.00   0.69   0.40     0.34   0.29   0.63  0.49 0.27   0.46  0.50   0.21

Saturday, February 2

Marcus Paige saves the day (and the NCAA hopes)


I think the Heels are really lucky to have come out on top in this one (which is a given, it was an overtime game and important since a loss here would have pushed the Heels towards the bubble), that said I'm especially impressed with the win for a couple of reasons.

1) Personnel - The Heels' personnel options took a huge step back in this game, going from a hot Hairston to a less than impressive Leslie is a downgrade on both ends of the floor. Virginia Tech took advantage of this by throwing a zone look at UNC most of the game, something Reggie Bullock was unable to take advantage of (1-8 3pt FG). Fortunately Paige stepped up (see below) and McAdoo took advantage of the zone by catching the ball in the high post and either sinking a long jumper or successfully putting the ball on the floor (his .75 FTRate was his 2nd highest in the last 10 games). I'm actually surprised that VaTech went to a zone because early on their man to man kept UNC off the glass (http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=14590&bView=7&sInclude=dorebpct) which lead to the 12-2 start in which UNC got offensive rebound in the first 10 minutes of the game. Once Tech took to a zone the Heels were able to get second chances and rescue an otherwise pathetic offensive effort. If you inspect the pentagon below, you'll notice that UNC won despite shooting worse than the Virginia Tech. It took an advantage in all three of the other four factors to secure the win. It is nice to see the Heels win one the hard way, stepping up the other areas of the game to make up for poor field goal shooting.

2) Defense - As bad as the offense looked without Hairston, the defense looked very, very good. I'm not going to attribute this to Hairston's absence as much as Paige and Strickland doing an amazing job of keeping NCAA leading scorer Erick Green under wraps. I'll admit I was nervous heading into the waning minutes. Normally with a player of Green's caliber, you can expect him to find a way to score since his team will turn to him repeatedly in close situations. However, Green went 0-3 over the last 6 Tech possessions, thanks to solid defense by Strickland and Paige (and on the last play, Bullock). Erick Green entered the game with an offensive rating of 123 (125 in conference), which is one of the highest in the nation for players of his usage. Today UNC held him to 16 points on 19 possessions, a rating of 84. That was the difference in the game on the defensive end, period. On a similar note, I'm convinced that Roy trusts Simmons more on screens (and free throw shooting) which explains his presence in the lineup as regulation wound to a close. Simmons' ability to hedge appropriately on at least one of the screens Green received may have saved the game, so continue to place me in the "Roy knows what he's doing" camp. To get back to the main point Carolina held a pretty potent offensive team, and the league's best player, to one of their worst offensive games of the season.

3) Paige - On the offensive end: Reggie Bullock's shots weren't falling, James Michael McAdoo was having the kind of game every Tar Heel faithful expects him to have every night, and no one else was stepping in to fill the Bullock/Hairston void. Enter Marcus Paige. Remember that "shoot-first" point guard that Roy recruited? That was him out there on the floor today, 4-10 from 3 point range paired with 5 assists. Hopefully this will help his confidence and he can produce more games like this throughout the remainder of the season. On afternoons that Bullock and/or Hairston are knocking down outside shots, Paige should find himself with open shots and lanes. Whether or not Paige takes advantage of these opportunities will determine if the Tar Heels to continue to improve to the level of everyone's expectations or finish a so-so season with an NCAA whimper.

$`Four Factors`
     OPP     NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 VaTech    Total 1.03   0.41   0.43 0.42   0.17
2 VaTech oppTotal 0.86   0.42   0.26 0.16   0.20



$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      11 1.00 0.17   1.00   0.23     0.12   0.10   0.06  0.37 0.31   0.27  0.23   0.00
McAdoo       18 1.22 0.30   0.67   0.67      NaN   0.08   0.21  0.69 0.75   0.67  0.05   0.28
Hubert        0  Inf 0.00    NaN   0.50      NaN   0.14   0.08  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.00    NaN
Strickland    6 0.83 0.14   0.33   0.29      NaN   0.12   0.00  0.30 0.43   0.29  0.07   0.17
Paige        17 1.12 0.28   0.75   0.43     0.40   0.03   0.12  0.60 0.29   0.57  0.24   0.12
James         0  NaN 0.00    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.17   0.40  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.00    NaN
Hairston     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Johnson       3 1.67 0.18   1.00   0.40      NaN   0.18   0.40  0.46 0.20   0.40  0.17   0.00
McDonald     10 0.60 0.26   1.00   0.14     0.00   0.00   0.09  0.34 0.57   0.14  0.22   0.10
Tokoto        3 0.00 0.32    NaN   0.00     0.00   0.00   0.00  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.00   0.67
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       3 0.67 0.11   0.00   0.50      NaN   0.06   0.12  0.35 1.00   0.50  0.00   0.33
Total        70 1.03 1.00   0.70   0.38     0.21   0.43   0.72  0.47 0.42   0.41  0.67   0.17
oppTotal     70 0.86 1.00   0.80   0.39     0.31   0.26   0.55  0.45 0.16   0.42  0.42   0.20

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  210 1.30 0.19   0.88   0.46     0.43   0.07   0.13  0.60 0.16   0.58  0.14   0.12
2      McAdoo  325 0.97 0.28   0.59   0.46     0.00   0.10   0.19  0.49 0.42   0.46  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   25 1.16 0.05   0.21   0.50      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.45 0.54   0.50  0.01   0.40
4  Strickland  192 0.87 0.19   0.62   0.43     0.20   0.02   0.07  0.49 0.46   0.44  0.20   0.16
5       Paige  215 0.69 0.21   0.83   0.32     0.31   0.01   0.09  0.43 0.15   0.40  0.22   0.23
6       James   50 1.18 0.12   0.56   0.51      NaN   0.09   0.17  0.53 0.33   0.51  0.03   0.30
7    Hairston  205 1.15 0.30   0.82   0.41     0.38   0.08   0.12  0.57 0.27   0.53  0.11   0.13
8     Johnson  127 1.22 0.26   0.56   0.56      NaN   0.10   0.24  0.57 0.12   0.56  0.05   0.12
9    McDonald  120 1.03 0.24   0.75   0.39     0.40   0.04   0.07  0.53 0.18   0.50  0.12   0.12
10     Tokoto   79 1.06 0.18   0.38   0.53     0.09   0.10   0.13  0.52 0.34   0.54  0.13   0.27
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.43   0.67
12    Simmons   19 2.53 0.07   0.80   0.67      NaN   0.15   0.11  0.70 0.33   0.67  0.05   0.26
13      Total 1554 1.06 1.00   0.65   0.44     0.36   0.38   0.68  0.52 0.28   0.50  0.61   0.18
14   oppTotal 1554 0.93 1.00   0.69   0.40     0.35   0.30   0.63  0.49 0.26   0.46  0.50   0.21

Wednesday, January 30

BC Results





$`Four Factors`
  OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1  BC     Total 1.21   0.54   0.38 0.32   0.13
2  BC oppTotals 1.03   0.51   0.21 0.30   0.15

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      10 0.80 0.19    NaN   0.38     0.33   0.00   0.27  0.50 0.00   0.50  0.04   0.20
McAdoo       21 0.81 0.36   0.50   0.35      NaN   0.10   0.25  0.38 0.30   0.35  0.12   0.05
Hubert        1 4.00 0.05    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.09   0.09  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.00   0.00
Strickland   16 0.88 0.30   1.00   0.40      NaN   0.00   0.08  0.55 0.60   0.40  0.17   0.19
Paige         7 1.14 0.13   1.00   0.33     0.33   0.04   0.12  0.55 0.50   0.42  0.25   0.14
James         0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Hairston      6 2.33 0.29   0.67   0.80     1.00   0.00   0.00  1.11 0.60   1.20  0.33   0.00
Johnson       4 1.50 0.21    NaN   0.75      NaN   0.11   0.22  0.75 0.00   0.75  0.00   0.25
McDonald     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Tokoto        3 1.00 0.14   0.50   0.50      NaN   0.00   0.09  0.52 1.00   0.50  0.21   0.00
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       3 2.67 0.08    NaN   0.80      NaN   0.17   0.06  0.80 0.00   0.80  0.06   0.33
Total        68 1.21 1.00   0.75   0.48     0.54   0.38   0.73  0.58 0.32   0.54  0.67   0.13
oppTotals    68 1.03 1.00   0.76   0.45     0.35   0.21   0.56  0.55 0.30   0.51  0.48   0.15

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  199 1.31 0.20   0.86   0.47     0.45   0.07   0.13  0.62 0.15   0.60  0.13   0.13
2      McAdoo  306 0.96 0.28   0.58   0.45     0.00   0.10   0.19  0.48 0.41   0.45  0.06   0.18
3      Hubert   25 1.08 0.06   0.21   0.50      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.45 0.58   0.50  0.01   0.40
4  Strickland  186 0.87 0.19   0.63   0.43     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.49 0.46   0.45  0.21   0.16
5       Paige  198 0.65 0.21   0.85   0.32     0.30   0.01   0.09  0.42 0.14   0.38  0.22   0.24
6       James   50 1.18 0.12   0.56   0.52      NaN   0.09   0.16  0.54 0.33   0.52  0.03   0.30
7    Hairston  205 1.15 0.30   0.82   0.41     0.38   0.08   0.12  0.57 0.27   0.53  0.11   0.13
8     Johnson  123 1.22 0.26   0.53   0.57      NaN   0.09   0.23  0.57 0.12   0.57  0.04   0.12
9    McDonald  111 1.06 0.24   0.69   0.40     0.43   0.05   0.07  0.54 0.16   0.52  0.11   0.12
10     Tokoto   76 1.11 0.18   0.38   0.54     0.10   0.10   0.13  0.53 0.35   0.54  0.13   0.25
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.67
12    Simmons   16 2.88 0.07   1.00   0.68      NaN   0.16   0.11  0.73 0.29   0.68  0.05   0.25
13      Total 1484 1.07 1.00   0.65   0.45     0.37   0.38   0.68  0.53 0.27   0.50  0.61   0.18
14   oppTotal 1484 0.93 1.00   0.68   0.40     0.35   0.30   0.63  0.50 0.27   0.46  0.50   0.21

NC State Results


Not a surprise but the Heels are going to have to do 2 things better on the return trip, rebounding and maybe earn a few more trips to the line. Or they could throw all of that out and play like they did in the second half. That is probably what was simultaneously the more annoying and the least troubling about the game. UNC played a clean game (few TO's, decent decision making), but given all the bad defense NC State's offensive rating was exactly where KP's numbers predicted it. The Heels just missed too many shots, and the absence of McAdoo in the 1st half was probably not helping much.

So, coming out of that game, we know exactly what we knew going in. UNC is an inexperienced team prone to lapses on defense but with some spotty offensive firepower. The Heels scored 50 points in the last 13 minutes of the game, 50! A lot of that was thanks to PJ Hairston as you can see from the bottom graph. On the same graph you can witness how poorly Reggie and Marcus played. Hopefully those are one game trends, but only time will tell.




$`Four Factors`
      OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 NCState     Total 1.02   0.52   0.24 0.14   0.17
2 NCState oppTotals 1.12   0.55   0.35 0.35   0.20

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      13 0.77 0.19    NaN   0.36     0.33   0.00   0.14  0.45 0.00   0.45  0.18   0.15
McAdoo       11 1.18 0.22   0.75   0.50      NaN   0.08   0.43  0.55 0.40   0.50  0.00   0.09
Hubert        0  NaN 0.00    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00    NaN
Strickland    8 0.75 0.15   1.00   0.29     0.00   0.00   0.05  0.38 0.29   0.29  0.28   0.00
Paige        15 0.47 0.26   1.00   0.18     0.20   0.00   0.08  0.29 0.18   0.23  0.17   0.20
James         4 1.50 0.16    NaN   0.75      NaN   0.00   0.10  0.75 0.00   0.75  0.00   0.00
Hairston     14 1.36 0.41   1.00   0.60     0.62   0.00   0.07  0.87 0.20   0.85  0.07   0.21
Johnson       5 1.20 0.25    NaN   0.38      NaN   0.30   0.12  0.38 0.00   0.38  0.00   0.00
McDonald     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Tokoto        8 1.25 0.23    NaN   0.71     0.00   0.06   0.07  0.71 0.00   0.71  0.21   0.25
Davis         3 0.00 0.25    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.40   1.00
Simmons       1 6.00 0.03    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.14   0.08  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.00   0.00
Total        81 1.02 1.00   0.90   0.46     0.36   0.24   0.68  0.55 0.14   0.52  0.64   0.17
oppTotals    81 1.12 1.00   0.87   0.49     0.54   0.35   0.79  0.61 0.35   0.55  0.69   0.20

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  189 1.34 0.20   0.86   0.48     0.46   0.07   0.12  0.62 0.15   0.60  0.14   0.12
2      McAdoo  286 0.97 0.28   0.59   0.46     0.00   0.10   0.19  0.49 0.42   0.46  0.06   0.19
3      Hubert   24 0.96 0.06   0.21   0.45      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.41 0.64   0.45  0.01   0.42
4  Strickland  170 0.87 0.18   0.60   0.44     0.20   0.02   0.08  0.49 0.45   0.45  0.21   0.15
5       Paige  191 0.63 0.21   0.82   0.31     0.30   0.01   0.09  0.41 0.12   0.38  0.22   0.24
6       James   50 1.18 0.12   0.56   0.52      NaN   0.09   0.16  0.54 0.33   0.52  0.04   0.30
7    Hairston  198 1.12 0.29   0.83   0.40     0.36   0.08   0.12  0.56 0.26   0.51  0.10   0.13
8     Johnson  119 1.21 0.26   0.53   0.56      NaN   0.09   0.23  0.56 0.12   0.56  0.04   0.12
9    McDonald  111 1.06 0.24   0.69   0.40     0.43   0.05   0.07  0.54 0.16   0.52  0.11   0.12
10     Tokoto   73 1.11 0.18   0.36   0.54     0.10   0.11   0.13  0.53 0.33   0.54  0.13   0.26
11      Davis    9 0.89 0.07   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.67
12    Simmons   13 2.92 0.07   1.00   0.65      NaN   0.16   0.13  0.72 0.35   0.65  0.05   0.23
13      Total 1417 1.06 1.00   0.64   0.45     0.37   0.38   0.68  0.52 0.27   0.50  0.61   0.19
14   oppTotal 1417 0.93 1.00   0.68   0.40     0.35   0.30   0.64  0.49 0.27   0.46  0.51   0.21

Thursday, January 24

GT Wrap & NC State odds






$`Four Factors`
          OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 GeorgiaTech     Total 0.98   0.47   0.30 0.31   0.17
2 GeorgiaTech oppTotals 0.78   0.39   0.35 0.08   0.23

$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      10 1.70 0.16   1.00   0.58     0.29   0.09   0.08  0.68 0.08   0.67  0.00   0.10
McAdoo       15 0.93 0.28   0.40   0.38     0.00   0.14   0.16  0.40 0.77   0.38  0.05   0.07
Hubert        2 0.00 0.04   0.00   0.00      NaN   0.04   0.19  0.00 0.33   0.00  0.00   0.00
Strickland    9 0.67 0.19   0.50   0.40      NaN   0.00   0.14  0.44 0.80   0.40  0.33   0.22
Paige         9 0.33 0.16    NaN   0.17     0.50   0.00   0.12  0.25 0.00   0.25  0.30   0.33
James         2 2.00 0.10    NaN   0.67      NaN   0.09   0.00  0.67 0.00   0.67  0.13   0.00
Hairston     14 1.07 0.41   1.00   0.45     0.50   0.00   0.10  0.63 0.18   0.59  0.08   0.14
Johnson       6 0.67 0.23   1.00   0.20      NaN   0.00   0.31  0.34 0.40   0.20  0.21   0.00
McDonald     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Tokoto       11 0.73 0.30    NaN   0.44     0.00   0.10   0.09  0.44 0.00   0.44  0.15   0.36
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       2 3.00 0.12   1.00   1.00      NaN   0.11   0.00  1.04 1.00   1.00  0.00   0.00
Total        81 0.98 1.00   0.59   0.43     0.35   0.30   0.67  0.50 0.31   0.47  0.63   0.17
oppTotals    81 0.78 1.00   0.83   0.36     0.27   0.35   0.75  0.41 0.08   0.39  0.30   0.23

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  176 1.38 0.20   0.86   0.49     0.46   0.08   0.12  0.63 0.16   0.61  0.14   0.12
2      McAdoo  275 0.96 0.28   0.58   0.45     0.00   0.10   0.18  0.49 0.42   0.45  0.06   0.19
3      Hubert   24 0.96 0.06   0.21   0.45      NaN   0.07   0.11  0.41 0.64   0.45  0.01   0.42
4  Strickland  162 0.88 0.18   0.58   0.45     0.21   0.02   0.08  0.50 0.46   0.46  0.20   0.16
5       Paige  176 0.65 0.21   0.80   0.33     0.31   0.01   0.09  0.42 0.12   0.40  0.22   0.24
6       James   46 1.15 0.12   0.56   0.50      NaN   0.10   0.17  0.52 0.36   0.50  0.04   0.33
7    Hairston  184 1.10 0.29   0.82   0.39     0.34   0.08   0.12  0.54 0.27   0.49  0.10   0.12
8     Johnson  114 1.21 0.26   0.53   0.58      NaN   0.08   0.23  0.58 0.13   0.58  0.05   0.12
9    McDonald  111 1.06 0.24   0.69   0.40     0.43   0.05   0.07  0.54 0.16   0.52  0.11   0.12
10     Tokoto   65 1.09 0.18   0.36   0.52     0.12   0.11   0.14  0.51 0.37   0.52  0.12   0.26
11      Davis    6 1.33 0.05   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.50
12    Simmons   12 2.67 0.07   1.00   0.60      NaN   0.17   0.13  0.68 0.40   0.60  0.06   0.25
13      Total 1336 1.06 1.00   0.63   0.45     0.37   0.38   0.68  0.52 0.28   0.50  0.61   0.19
14   oppTotal 1336 0.92 1.00   0.66   0.40     0.34   0.30   0.63  0.49 0.26   0.46  0.49   0.21

> prediction(117.2,98.9,68.8,107.3,91.6,73.7)
$HomePts (NC State)
[1] 84.41233

$AwayPts
[1] 78.89632

$Pace
[1] 75.34264

$HomeWinP
[1] 0.6850672

(Late) Maryland Wrap


$`Four Factors`
       OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 Maryland     Total 0.87   0.39   0.33 0.28   0.17
2 Maryland oppTotals 0.73   0.41   0.29 0.26   0.30



$`Last Game`
           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock      17 1.41 0.29   0.86   0.47     0.57   0.05   0.11  0.66 0.47   0.60  0.00   0.06
McAdoo       18 1.06 0.30   0.43   0.50     0.00   0.13   0.21  0.50 0.44   0.50  0.05   0.22
Hubert        0  NaN 0.00    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.06   0.08  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.00    NaN
Strickland    9 0.67 0.19   0.50   0.33      NaN   0.03   0.09  0.39 0.67   0.33  0.13   0.22
Paige         7 0.29 0.12    NaN   0.14     0.00   0.00   0.11  0.14 0.00   0.14  0.33   0.00
James         4 1.00 0.20    NaN   0.40      NaN   0.08   0.00  0.40 0.00   0.40  0.00   0.00
Hairston      9 0.33 0.20    NaN   0.12     0.20   0.07   0.10  0.19 0.00   0.19  0.21   0.33
Johnson       5 0.40 0.35    NaN   0.17      NaN   0.11   0.14  0.17 0.00   0.17  0.00   0.00
McDonald     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Tokoto        1 2.00 0.06    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.10   0.12  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.39   1.00
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       1 0.00 0.08    NaN    NaN      NaN   0.00   0.00   NaN  NaN    NaN  0.00   1.00
Total        71 0.87 1.00   0.61   0.35     0.29   0.33   0.71  0.43 0.28   0.39  0.61   0.17
oppTotals    71 0.73 1.00   0.64   0.40     0.08   0.29   0.69  0.44 0.26   0.41  0.24   0.30

$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  165 1.37 0.20   0.86   0.48     0.48   0.08   0.13  0.63 0.17   0.60  0.14   0.12
2      McAdoo  260 0.96 0.28   0.60   0.46     0.00   0.09   0.18  0.49 0.40   0.46  0.06   0.20
3      Hubert   21 1.10 0.06   0.23   0.53      NaN   0.07   0.10  0.47 0.68   0.53  0.01   0.48
4  Strickland  153 0.89 0.18   0.59   0.45     0.21   0.02   0.08  0.50 0.45   0.46  0.20   0.16
5       Paige  167 0.66 0.21   0.80   0.33     0.30   0.01   0.08  0.43 0.12   0.40  0.22   0.24
6       James   44 1.11 0.12   0.56   0.49      NaN   0.10   0.18  0.51 0.39   0.49  0.03   0.34
7    Hairston  170 1.11 0.28   0.81   0.39     0.33   0.09   0.13  0.53 0.27   0.48  0.10   0.12
8     Johnson  108 1.24 0.26   0.46   0.59      NaN   0.09   0.23  0.59 0.12   0.59  0.04   0.13
9    McDonald  111 1.06 0.24   0.69   0.40     0.43   0.05   0.07  0.54 0.16   0.52  0.11   0.12
10     Tokoto   54 1.17 0.16   0.36   0.53     0.14   0.11   0.14  0.52 0.43   0.54  0.12   0.24
11      Davis    6 1.33 0.05   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.50
12    Simmons   10 2.60 0.07   1.00   0.56      NaN   0.18   0.15  0.63 0.33   0.56  0.07   0.30
13      Total 1255 1.07 1.00   0.64   0.45     0.37   0.39   0.68  0.52 0.27   0.50  0.60   0.19
14   oppTotal 1255 0.93 1.00   0.66   0.40     0.35   0.30   0.62  0.49 0.28   0.46  0.50   0.21

Sunday, January 13

FSU Wrap-up

    There is really only one main takeaway from Saturday's game in terms of team advanced stats. Let me reiterate how the Four Factors work (in case they've slipped your mind). Dean Oliver decided that it would be best to distill any game into 4 measures of a team's production: Shooting, Rebounding, Free Throws and Turnovers. They carry importance in that order and are measured in a tempo-free way in the following graph I show all of you after each UNC game:
     Now, something should stick out about that graph. You may proceed to the raw numbers below to confirm, but you will find that yes, UNC lost three of the four factors including shooting, the most important. However, the Heels did such a phenomenal job on the glass that they won the game. The things that go into an offense can be widely varied, but the important thing to learn from Oliver's factors are that many things can alter the number of points a team gets. Even though UNC turned the ball over more, took fewer free throws, and missed a higher percentage of their shots, they got enough second (and third) chances and prevented FSU from doing the same which created 10 extra shots for UNC*. So, if you take one thing away from the beautiful pentagon graph above, note the giant edge in perORB and understand that is the reason UNC won Saturday.

           OPP      NAME ORTG perEFG perORB  FTR TORATE
1 FloridaState     Total 1.22   0.55   0.58 0.27   0.22
2 FloridaState oppTotals 1.14   0.59   0.21 0.34   0.16


    Now, to be honest I'm not great at spotting overall trends, but I've got to assume that two things went into that advantage, game planning and a renewed effort on the boards and I can only hope this trend continues. This iteration of North Carolina basketball doesn't have a formidable big man to create a rebounding edge, but does maintain a size advantage at positions 1-4 and should be able to rebound well. This is potentially vital going forward, as offensive rebound is one of the more simple remedies for poor shooting. Shooting will always win games, but if a team is regularly able to corral its own misses it has something of a security blanket against bad shooting nights.

    On to the individual offensive performances. Inconsistency continues to be the only rule here, as each player continues to find new directions on my game graph. Hairston ventures out to territory unseen since McNeese State, while McAdoo and Bullock took fewer shots and saw their efficiency improve. Brice Johnson had an uncharacteristically poor game, though two of his turnovers were on entry passes "over the top" of a defender that was fronting him in the post. That hasn't been a common avenue for delivering the basketball to him, hopefully he can improve his pass catching from that angle. Paige had a high usage game, but wasn't impressive and Dexter returned back from purgatory with a lackluster game. Desmond Hubert continues to improve, putting the ball in the basket when asked on one end while playing successful defense on the other.
    With so many ho-hum performances, how did the Heels nab victory from the jaws of defeat? The answer, in a few words, is Jackson Simmons. He's missing on the graph above, because he wrecks the curve. Below is the same graph with his inclusion, Simmons used 1 possession and scored 8 points. He took and made 3 shots and 2 free throws with 1 turnover and 4 offensive rebounds. While on the floor he rebounded 33% of UNC's missed shots. I'm not sure if his role will continue to be this large, but he certainly has played like the Brice Johnson-Joel James combo many have been yearning for. His offensive production was both timely and significant, while he was always in the right place on defense and seldom got beat for points. Florida State doesn't boast the most menacing front court in the league, but they're not small by any means.
    One last note, in Tallahassee last year the Seminoles took 27 three-point field goals and made 12, Saturday they took 22 and made only one fewer, 11. I'm not directly comparing the production, but given that the 'Noles were nearly as hot as the team that knocked off last year's #3 squad the fact that this year's Tar Heels were able to come away with a win is indicative of the moxie I hope these Heels continue to show. If they do we'll be in for a fun ACC season.

           POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock       7 1.71 0.13    NaN   0.45     0.33   0.18   0.12  0.55 0.00   0.55  0.16   0.14
McAdoo       13 1.08 0.24   0.57   0.45      NaN   0.10   0.21  0.50 0.64   0.45  0.08   0.15
Hubert        2 2.00 0.11    NaN   1.00      NaN   0.00   0.12  1.00 0.00   1.00  0.00   0.00
Strickland    5 0.80 0.13   0.67   0.33     0.00   0.00   0.17  0.46 1.00   0.33  0.11   0.20
Paige        15 0.53 0.34   1.00   0.22     0.50   0.00   0.15  0.40 0.22   0.33  0.20   0.33
James         1 0.00 0.16    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.00   0.33  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.00   0.00
Hairston     15 1.53 0.34   0.50   0.64     0.44   0.04   0.15  0.77 0.14   0.79  0.05   0.07
Johnson       7 0.57 0.40    NaN   0.40      NaN   0.00   0.12  0.40 0.00   0.40  0.00   0.29
McDonald     NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Tokoto        0  NaN 0.00    NaN   0.00      NaN   0.14   0.00  0.00 0.00   0.00  0.34    NaN
Davis        NA   NA   NA     NA     NA       NA     NA     NA    NA   NA     NA    NA     NA
Simmons       1 8.00 0.04   1.00   1.00      NaN   0.33   0.00  1.03 0.67   1.00  0.09   1.00
Total        63 1.22 1.00   0.69   0.48     0.40   0.58   0.79  0.57 0.27   0.55  0.55   0.22
oppTotals    63 1.14 1.00   0.76   0.48     0.50   0.21   0.39  0.63 0.34   0.59  0.71   0.16

    As promised, a few thoughts on the Tar Heel's performances to open the ACC season. My general feeling is that UNC has played two games well and one game poorly and unfortunately for them if you rearrange the performances in most other ways they'd be 2-1. That said, though the overall performances haven't been great (and certainly not at the team's ceiling) the players appear to be buying in more than they were earlier in the year. I can't quantify effort with any one stat, but I'm prepared to provide rebounding as a proxy. Below I've plotted UNC's rebounding performance against all of their KenPom top-100 opponents. As you can see, earlier in the year the Heels were getting out-rebounded by most of their top-flight competition. In recent games those numbers have improved. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, as a rebounding edge would certainly improve the defense and make the offense more robust.
$`Season Totals`
         NAME POSS ORTG  USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS  FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1     Bullock  148 1.36 0.19   0.86   0.48     0.47   0.08   0.13  0.63 0.14   0.61  0.15   0.13
2      McAdoo  242 0.95 0.28   0.62   0.46      NaN   0.09   0.18  0.49 0.40   0.46  0.06   0.19
3      Hubert   21 1.10 0.06   0.23   0.56      NaN   0.07   0.10  0.48 0.72   0.56  0.01   0.48
4  Strickland  144 0.90 0.18   0.60   0.45     0.21   0.02   0.07  0.51 0.44   0.47  0.20   0.15
5       Paige  160 0.68 0.22   0.80   0.34     0.32   0.01   0.08  0.44 0.13   0.42  0.21   0.25
6       James   40 1.12 0.11   0.56   0.50      NaN   0.10   0.18  0.52 0.44   0.50  0.03   0.38
7    Hairston  161 1.15 0.29   0.81   0.40     0.34   0.09   0.13  0.55 0.29   0.50  0.10   0.11
8     Johnson  103 1.28 0.26   0.46   0.62      NaN   0.09   0.23  0.61 0.13   0.62  0.04   0.14
9    McDonald  111 1.06 0.24   0.69   0.40     0.43   0.05   0.07  0.54 0.16   0.52  0.11   0.12
10     Tokoto   53 1.15 0.17   0.36   0.52     0.14   0.11   0.14  0.51 0.44   0.53  0.11   0.23
11      Davis    6 1.33 0.05   1.00   1.00     1.00   0.00   0.03  1.39 1.00   1.50  0.42   0.50
12    Simmons    9 2.89 0.07   1.00   0.56      NaN   0.19   0.16  0.63 0.33   0.56  0.07   0.22
13      Total 1184 1.08 1.00   0.64   0.45     0.37   0.39   0.68  0.53 0.27   0.51  0.60   0.19
14   oppTotal 1184 0.94 1.00   0.66   0.40     0.36   0.30   0.62  0.49 0.28   0.46  0.52   0.21


*An aside here, for those of you interested Dean Smith's book "Multiple Offense and Defense" explains his game charting methods. He would have counted these rebounds as extra possessions which they essentially are, but it throws off a lot of tempo-free stat counting if you do the accounting that way.