Wednesday, January 31

1/31 Daily And-1

1) Harangody Breakout!!! - As I was scanning the scoreboard of last night's action, one thing jumped out at me "Players of the Game ND - L. Harangody". Miracle of miracles, looks like someone finally emailed Mike Brey a link. "Cool Hand Luke" got 30 minutes and rewarded the coach with 21 pts 13 rbs (though it took him 19 shots to get there, i'll give him a break in his first outing). Harangody helped the Irish hang 61 pts on Cuse in the first half in an NBA style 103 91 win.

2) ACC Parity - FSU upended Maryland at home 96-79, this wasn't a huge upset, but this Maryland team has fallen a long way from their early season form. Also, Wake Forest beat GT at home in a much larger upset. This gives Wake its 2nd in conference win and slides GT closer to the "work left to do" category of bubble watch.

And-1) Aggie Report - OK, here it is, the end-all be-all analysis of the Texas A&M Aggies with a Kansas game prediction. Their schedule is somewhat vague in terms of telling you how they're actually doing. They've lost three acceptable games LSU, UCLA, TTech, (two by 3 pts or less), but outside of these games their wins are fairly weak, @Auburn, OK St, OU, and Winthrop all at home. Its hard to judge a team with close games against big teams and little else, therefore much will likely be made of their Kansas game this weekend, this is also the reason their Cons is weak (311). Also, they have a strong defensive rating (4th) but against offensively bad offensive competition (209th). However, on offense they pass the ball as well as anyone (3rd A/FGM) and get most of their points inside the arch (54.8%). They don't go very deep, with their minutes being fairly top heavy (rotation looks to go 6.5 deep with man #7 getting 26% PT). However, 4 of their 5 starters contribute offensively and they have Josh Carter at 133 ORtg. Now here's the prediction. I'll give the edge to Kansas, which I'd even predict at a neutral site, but the Phog Allen crowd will only help matters. The Jayhawks are deeper and play solid enough defense to win the game and get a leg up in the Big 12, though don't judge this Aggie team by a sole loss. They may not have the heart to pull this one out, but they'll be a dangerous team come tournament time if their defense meshes just a little more. Since they don't get a true home and home series, they'll have to hunt for revenge in the Big 12 Tourney.

Illinois 57 Mich St. 50 - Old fashioned Big 10 barn-burner. Why is it that on the CBS website its "Big Ten" but "Big 12"?

Miami @ UNC
Knicks @ Bobcats

OSU @ Purdue
Wisconsin @ Indiana - interesting road test, chance for Hoosiers to make some noise
Mizzou @ KState
Texas @ TTech - both teams with "work left to do", could be interesting
UConn @ Depaul - can the Huskies stop the bleeding or is it too late?
Gonzaga @ Stanford - hmmm, tastier than a chinese buffet

Tuesday, January 30

The Secret Conference, Revisited

Okay Byron, Ryan and I want to see how many MVC teams you can name right now. Right now!

"I can't name any of them! Damn it! I don't care!"

1/30 Daily And-1

1) Barbaro to the Glue Factory - Yeah, yeah, lame lead off for a lame sports day. In a tragedy of tragedies, the great horse will not soon be matched. Oh wait, whats that? No Triple Crown? You mean, Barbaro didn't do something no other horse has done since Secretariat? Oh, I'm sorry, because based on the media coverage you'd have thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. Anyways, I'm sad a horse died, but happy we'll never have to hear about him again.

2) Hoops Action - Pittsburgh went to underrated 'Nova and won last night, could they be lining up for a #2 if they win the Big East? I think they might slip into one, with either a #1 finish or a Big East Tourney win. Its close, but i don't think Texas A&M will get the props for a #2 but we'll see (I promise, the analysis is coming, sometime before Saturday's showdown with Kansas). Also, what happened to the Big East since 2003 their RPI has been 4, 3, 2, 2, but this year they're 7th (same trend in KP ratings but not as drastic 4, 3, 2, 2, but they're 4th now). Their best team is Pitt at 8-1, after that there is a logjam at 2 losses with G-town, Marquette, L'ville. Imagine if they hadn't become a super-mega conference no Marquette or L'ville. It just seems like an odd down year for a conference with 16 teams.

And-1) Baseball Hot Stove - (Why the hell is it called that? John? Anyone?) Bonds passed a physical (probably sans drug test) and will complete his deal with the Giants. Speaking of 'roiders Sosa completed his deal with the Rangers, and the Rockies have broken off trade talks with the Red Sox who want Todd Helton, damn right Rockies you better clean 'em out if they want Helton.

Bobcats 105 George Karl's Nuggets 101

Mich St. @ Illinois
Maryland @ FSU
ND @ 'Cuse


Monday, January 29

The Secret Conference

Bracketbusters matchups have been announced!

(The Missouri Valley Conference is "The Secret Conference" because Byron doesn't know anything about it. Ask him to name five Valley teams! It's fun! Ask him to name three! Even more fun!)

Sunday, January 28

1/29 Daily And-1

1) College Basketball Upsets - There were several upsets (as usual) this week in the world of college hoops, here's a brief overview. UVA scored the last 15 points to edge Clemson by 1 at Littlejohn. Clemson 0-4 FG, 0-3 FT, 2 TOs in last 5:00, UVA 3-4 3FG, 3-4 2FG, 2 ORB, 0 possesions w/o points. Stanford shocked visiting UCLA with a strong outing from John's new favorite set of non-female twins the Lopez Brothers. Also, Baylor gave Texas a scare, OU fell flat on its face as usual (336th Cons). and Providence beat UConn to put their tournament hopes in even more jeopardy (Big East Tournament that is).

2) On Top of Their Game(s) - Federer and Woods both won this weekend, 10th Grand Slam and 7th consecutive win respectively, each writing yet another chapter in their all out dominance of an individual sport. Yeah, yeah, I know, I'm copping the worldwide leader's style. But it is a solid comparison, both are in their primes and looking like they could wear the "best ever" crown.

And-1) NFL Update - Just relaying a couple of stories. The NFL fined Reggie Bush ($5,000) for taunting the Bears in the NFC Champ Game. The Cowboys look to be leaning towards hiring Norv Turner (WTF, are you KIDDING ME, can you say MISTAKE!?!?!). Oh, yeah, and there is this whole Super Bowl thing or something, Peyton Manning, blah blah blah. And finally, my man at the Rock Hill Herald gets on the ball and writes about Jeff Davidson.

Warriors Too Much, Bobcats Too Little - looks like that new chemistry is working in GS, well, at least against the league's worst.

UNC 92, Arizona 64 - in case you were under a rock this weekend, Brandan Wright and Marcus Ginyard took the weekend off, Marcus Williams got hurt, and the Heels Team A v 2.0 walloped the Wildcats. Several good articles: Observer, Andy Katz. John and I disagree, but with UCLA's loss I feel that we will slip up to #2 in at least one poll.
(if you don't like the random newspaper articles, check out

Lady Heels 84, Lady Terps 71 - up big early, the Lady Heels made a case for #1 in the nation by beating Maryland at home, building up to the coming Duke game 2/8 (both are still undefeated and have played nearly identical schedules, Tenn, UConn, Maryland, half of the ACC)

Bobcats @ Nuggets

From the comedy section, Shaq is at it again, putting his Miami Dade reserve policemen status to work. Maybe he should show up on an episode of CSI: Miami.

Go Cardinal

I retract my earlier statement; Stanford beats UCLA tonight in a thrilling upset! Have I told you how much I love Pac-10 hoops on FSN? Have I told you how much I love the Stanford Cardinal? Have I told you how much I love Brook Lopez?

Those Other Rankings:

1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
3. North Carolina

Those other rankings

Byron: "Think we'll improve our spot in the polls after our drubbing of Arizona?"


Go Braves

Just relaying a post I gave to the numb-nuts members of a Braves facebook group I belong to.

"We had one of the best offenses in the Major Leagues last season, good for sixth. SIXTH. The Yankees, Indians, Phillies, Mets, and Blue Jays were the only teams with better offenses (three AL teams, and two NL East teams). In my mind, trading away a part of that offense with someone (Thorman) waiting in the wings to have a decent chance at replacing it is fine with me, given our bullpen situation. I'm quite glad to have Gonzalez coming over (he would have easily been the most valuable of our relievers were he with our organization last year, so too would Soriano), and receiving Lillibridge only sweetens the deal.

From Baseball America:
"Gonzalez, a 28-year-old lefthander, helps shore up an Atlanta bullpen that was a weakness last year but already was bolstered this offseason by the acquistion of Rafael Soriano. Gonzalez has better stuff that most southpaws, starting with a plus fastball and slider. He went 3-4, 2.17 with 24 saves in 54 games last year. He had a 64-31 K-BB ratio in 54 innings while limiting opponents to a .213 average and one homer. Gonzalez avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $2.35 million contract in January."

"Lillibridge, 23, was one of Pittsburgh's top prospects. A fourth-round pick out of Washington in 2005, he hit a combined .305/.419/.480 with 13 homers, 71 RBIs and 53 steals in 128 games between two Class A stops last year. Lillibridge has the tools to bat at the top of a lineup with a solid bat, gap power, improving plate discipline and plus speed. He has good range and a solid arm at shortstop, and could surface quickly in Atlanta."

Also, McCann was our most valuable hitter this year. Chipper was a close second, even with the missed playing time; in fact, he only had 15 fewer plate appearances than McCann. Renteria was fourth, LaRoche was fifth, and Francoeur wasn't even close. Among all players with 200+ plate appearances, he was easily the worst. I'm still willing to give him a chance, though; hopefully he'll have learned patience by the 2007 season."

Saturday, January 27

1/27 Daily And-1

1) "Timing Error" - I guess this means Clemson is really for real real. In case you haven't heard, someone "slipped up" and didn't start the clock as Clemson tied the game, but started it after that. Then a home court ruling added about twice the number of seconds to the clock as should have been allowing Duke to tie the game.

2) Aussie Results - Serena ran over Maria last night, 6-1, 6-2 to take the Australian Open. Yeah, yeah, she's unseeded, but that just means she hasn't played in a while. But based on the results they might as well have Greco-Roman wrestled for the title.

And-1) Shootout in the Desert - The Heels take on the 'Cats today in Tuscon, lets see if I can hit the cliche nail on the head "first team to 100 wins". Ok, yeah, that was fun, now some real analysis: Arizona doesn't force enough TO's (17.7 OppTO%, 328th) or defend shots well enough (50.4% effFGA 183rd) to slow down the Heel's offense. The 'Cats offense, despite being high powered doesn't respond well to pace (r=-.29) and their defense suffers when their opposistion rebound offensively (r=+.46). On the flip side, the Heels defense thrives off TOs (r=-.62*) while Arizona takes care of the ball (19.1 TO%, 44th). And lets not forget about home court advantage, the Heels have only lost at away or neutral sites. Edit: Arizona has a 29 game non-conference home winning streak.

Bobcats 106, Lakers 97 (OT) - wins are nice, sweeping the Lakers is nice, but are we getting a little too far away from Oden/Durant? I mean, I'd swap wins for that 3rd or 4th lottery spot, besides, we're due for a lottery W, we've never won it. Getting Greg Oden in Charlotte would do so much for ticket sales, etc.

Heels @ 'Cats
Bobcats @ GS Warriors
Lady Heels @ Terps (Sunday)

(the following at all top 50 matchups)
Illinois @ Purdue
Michigan @ Indiana
Mich St @ Ohio St
OU @ T A&M
'Cuse @ L'Ville
'Nova @ ND
Bradley @ Mizz St (52, its close enough)
Oregon @ Wazzu
Arkansas @ 'Bama
Florida @ Auburn (yeah, yeah, they're only 80th)
BC @ Duke
Depaul @ WVU
Tenn @ UK

Wow, what a slate of games, enjoy 'em folks. The Daily And-1 will be off tomorrow as I'm mucking around Falls Lake looking for birds.

Friday, January 26

1/26 Daily And-1

1) For Real Real - I'm not sure if this means Clemson is as good as advertised, Duke is worse than advertised, or my theory (Clemson's ball pressure gets at Duke's weak spot) is correct.
Its most likely a combination of all three, but the Tigers played the Devils close in Cameron, something that's easier said than done. Also, props to getting it done when it counts 10-11 at the FT line, WOW, thats 30% above their season average. Though I hope the whistle blows a bit more in 2 weeks when the Heels visit Cameron, team fouls 15 to 10, yes for the entire game.

2) NFL bans EPOs - I'm not a PED expert, so most of the wisdom is in the article, but basically this equates to MLB banning andro a while back, and as the article says, if a league cares enough to ban something, it must be being used by players.

And-1) "84 or 85" - Today from the comedy section, we have Gilbert Arenas' attempt to predict his point total were he to play Duke and Coach K. This is likely an extrapolation of his 50+ point game against the other Team USA coach (Mike D'Antoni, Pheonix Suns). Lets just put it this way, I would pay a large sum of money to see John Scheyer and/or Greg Paulus attempting to guard Gilbert Arenas.

Last Night's Wrap-Up:
Clemson = for real real
UW rolls back towards the happy side of the bubble, "knocking off" overrated Oregon
via John: props to Brook Lopez, a triple double the hard way (16 pts 11 rbs 12 BLOCKS), though its his (twin?) brother Robin Lopez who is 38th in the nation with a 9.4 Blk%.

no top-100 RPI/KP games
edit: Bobcats @ Lakers, 10:30 (and free NBA League Pass!)

Ok, ok, I had this all written, and then a rant came up, in this article Clark Kellogg in his infinite wisdom has deemed Billy Donovan worthy of Coach of the Year, but has left Roy Williams off the list. I'm not saying either deserve it, I'm of the mind that the coach that does the most with the least should win. That said, on a list of ~15 candidates, how can Donovon's name come before Roy Williams. Team record: practically equal, Team schedule: UNC's much harder, plus Roy has had to coach and play freshmen mixed in with an established group, not the exact same team that WON A TITLE LAST YEAR. It seems silly to mention one and not the other. Also, not that I follow these teams, but Oregon? Cal? WTF? Someone obviously loves the Pac-10 more than John.

Thursday, January 25

Go Pack

Were he in the minor leagues, North Carolina State righty Andrew Brackman would rank as the 26th-best pitching prospect, according to Baseball America editor Jim Callis.
You have GOT to be kidding me.

1/25 Power 16

My table will be a bit different this time; hopefully the formatting won't screw up.

Team NameKenpomAPESPN Power 16Average
1. Florida2111.3
2. North Carolina1443
3. UCLA5323.3
4. Wisconsin7234
5. Ohio State6555.3
6. Texas A&M3696
7. Kansas8877.7
8. Duke410139
9. Pittsburgh12989.7
10. Memphis9111010
11. Oregon247612.3
12. Butler18141114.3
13. Arizona13171816
13. Air Force17161516
15. Marquette29151218.7
16. Washington State31201421.7

A Love Affair Finally Ends

I've found FJM to have fallen off the wagon recently, but I enjoyed this gem re: The Man Who Caused Johnny Estrada to Appear in Just 56 Games in 2005 After June 6.

Wednesday, January 24

1/25 Daily And-1

Ok, so this is the last header paragraph for a Daily And-1, you should all know the drill by now, and I'm going to start dating them.

1) College Parity - Upsets galore last night as Vandy, Texas Tech, and Georgia took down higher ranked opponents. The Aggies and Wildcats are something of paper tigers, and Kentucky had been streaky of late and lost to a solid Bulldog squad, so this wasn't an unheard of night, just more conference games where anything can happen. Worth noting that Florida must have some heart after gutting out a 3 point win on the road.

2) Lovie's getting the love - The Bears are doing the right thing and stepping to the plate to extend and increase Lovie Smith's lowest in the NFL contract. This will give him the raise he's earned and make the Cowboys opening a non-story over the next two weeks.

And-1) Aussie Tennis Update - Unseeded Serena is on to the finals where she awaits Clijsters/Sharaova (ha, that might average out to a moderatley attractive person). And on the men's side, tomorrow is the Roddick/Federer matchup in the semi-finals. Edit: Federer swept Roddick today in straight sets (still hasn't dropped one this tourney) and the women's final is Serena/Maria

In the future I may lean towards "missing the free throw" here, and skipping out if its as slow as the news has been lately. That or saving one of the college games for some more in depth analysis down here (Texas A&M: Contender/Pretender, perhaps). That way the 2 stories are key, and then the extra And-1 is more of my spin on things, just a thought. I do think rambling out the several smaller stories is not the way to go, sorta makes it silly to call it the "And-1"

Pistons 103 Bobcats 92
Heels 88 Deacs 60

Clemson @ Duke - are the Tigers for real real?
Oregon @ UW - can the Huskies get back on track?

1/24 Daily And-1

So, an overwhelming majority of you (~83%) voted to stick with the And-1 for now, so this being a democratically run outfit, we'll try the name out. Onto today's news:

1) Panther's Hire Coordinator - Jeff Davidson out of the Belicheck coaching tree via the Cleveland Browns, he was their OC for the last 10 games of the season, and was a part of New England's Super Bowl wins, hopefully we'll get to see more effective use of TE's and better lanes for RB's

2) Upset Specials - Two fairly large upsets last night in college ball, Auburn over Alabama (that's sort of like Duke beating UNC at football), and St. John's over Notre Dame. Both of these were home games, so no huge shock, and both of the upset teams had losses to other crappy teams, ok, not ND, but 'Bama was shaky (check out John's jubilations below for more Auburn praise)

And-1) Ok, it was a pretty weak sports day, Parcells is still quitting, the Deacs are probably going to be overmatched tonight hosting the Heels, and Tank Johnson can go to the Super Bowl (says the judge with the Bears jersey under his robe). But my official And-1 is going to be mentioning BC's possible second to last ACC win, they held off FSU at home and their only other definite winnable game is Miami, sure gonna miss that Sean Williams, maybe he can go to OK St., they need a big man, right?

Pistons @ Bobcats
Heels @ Deacs

Go Pack

Top Five ACC Scorers, by Offensive Rating (as of January 21):

1. Jared Dudley (Byron's faaaaavorite player, and really, person in general)
2. K.C. Rivers
3. Sean Singletary
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Ben McCauley (Go Pack)

Now, tell me, how many of you (yes, all 2.5 of you) would have picked McCauley to have a higher ORtg than Brandan Wright (he's sixth)? Byron, were we aware that McCauley was NCSU's best player? An NCSU player? An ACC player? A basketball player? Just say when.

Oh, by the way, Nick Fazekas would rank second on this list, behind the all-powerful Jared Dudley. For those of you who know who Nick Fazekas is. (Byron does now.)

Yes, Virginia, There is an NCAA Tournament

Who wants to venture a guess as to whether Virginia will earn an at-large bid in the tournament this year? I can't figure them out. They've beaten Arizona, Maryland, and Gonzaga (did you see the Gonzaga game?), but they've also lost to Utah (111) and Happy Appy (119). Blech. Right now, they stand at 11-6, 3-2 in ACC play. Not bad for the 61st-ranked team. Their schedule from here on out, however, seems to be double-or-nothing. Highlights: NCSU, Miami 2x, Wake, and...Longwood. Lowlights: Clemson, Duke, Maryland again, VaTech 2x, Florida State, and Georgia Tech. One could very easily give them just five more wins with that schedule. But then again...did you see the Gonzaga game? (By the way, Kenpom gives them six more wins, throwing them a bone against Florida State at home.) I think they'll get seven more wins (I'll take them over VaTech at home), finishing at 18-11, and earning a low seed in the tournament.


Wow, and I said Alabama was for real. What a crappy game for them. They dropped from 31st to 53rd on the loss, while Auburn jumped from 95th to 79th. 'Atta way to give the home crowd a show, War Eagle. While Free Throw Rate is not a big part of Alabama's game plan, 15.0 will not get you anywhere when your offense doesn't show up (23-60 from the field) and Auburn hits everything they throw up (34-59).

Tuesday, January 23

Daily ?????

Ok, so I've got some name ideas, how about the "And-1" or more colloquially the "Tyler" or "Hansbrough". Anyways, I'm also going to defacto include any results of the teams this blog affiliates itself with a list including UNC Basketball (M & W), Carolina Panthers, Charlotte Bobcats, and Atlanta Braves. If you have any additions (and no hockey so don't ask) just leave them in the comments.

1) OK St v. OU - OK St holds off a fiesty OU team for a KP upset (though it was in Stillwater) the Cowboys haven't beaten anyone spectacular (Losses to KU & Tex A&M) but the do beat the even competition.

2) Melo & AI - combined for 51 point in a route of the Grizzlies, though it was the Grizzlies.

And 1) Top DT Commits - the fresh UNC coaching staff has reigned in the top non-committed player (94th overall, 3rd DT), pulling the 6'3" 290 lb. Tydreke Powell away from VT and Penn St.

Scores: Raptors 105 Bobcats 84 pretty ugly

oh yeah, and another Bengal got arrested (9 in 9 months)

Monday, January 22

The First Ever Daily Dish

Now introducing, Ryan's Daily Dish. In an attempt to gain a larger readership (we're at 2.5 and counting) I've decided to use consistent and appropriate capitalization and to deliver to you the top 3 sports stories from the past 24 hours. The number of 24 hour periods missed will be reflected by the number of stories, though there may be "a & b". Today's entry starts with yesterday's and a bit about today. Also, I promise that there will be at least one entry related to college basketball (well, until April).

1) Championship Results
a) Colts over Patriots - Peyton finally gets the demons off his back, or whatever, Golden Boy Brady throws a pick on the seal the game for the Colts, oops, at least the Vinatieri signing didn't backfire.
b) Bears over Saints - The dream ride comes to an end for the Gulf Coast, but the Saints still had an amazing season, they should be able to keep it up with some defensive minded drafting.

2) Parcells Steps Down - Bill Parcells retires as coach of the Cowboys, hopefully the best candidates haven't already been picked over by Cardinals (Wisenhunt) and Steelers (Tomlin), at least he left the franchise in better shape than the Giants or Jets.

3) Marquette v. Pitt - The Golden Eagles pulled off the upset at Pitt last night in OT, this adds to their inconsistency (losses to Providence & ND State wins against Duke, UConn & Pitt.

Sunday, January 21


ok, here's a new look, i think its an improvement, a little cleaner. John and i will collaborate on the links to the right, and to try and find common ground on the set up. Anyways, any further posts will have titles for easy reference to the right side of the page

Championship Weekend Results

to quote John's entry from last week "Wow, what a game", and even though my mom IMed me the touchdown before it happened its still a happy ending. in summary, on the week Ryan +10 (2-0) and John -2 (1-1) bringing the cumulative playoff numbers to Ryan +22 (9-1) John +10 (7-3). i guess you could call John the Colts, always looking good regular season but lagging in the playoffs, and myself the Patriots, full of heart and coming through in the clutch, or maybe we need a better metaphor. luckily for John I talked him out of picking the Patriots, or else he'd be doomed, ok, maybe that's not the total case, but anyways, i suppose the Super Bowl will be worth 10 points.

in related news, the Heels are back on top of KenPom, with our defense (#2) passing our offense (#5) (probably thanks to the two most recent sloppy games, the DE against Clemson was 69.6). also the strength of schedule is looking sharp at 23rd, and just wait til game at 'Zona gets thrown in.

Saturday, January 20

Championship Game Picks

ok, i hate to post in a hurry (almost as much as i hate to pick in a hurry). I'm giving 6 points to the Colts, b/c i have a man crush on Peyton (well, more like a loathing of Captian Perfect, but who's counting). And 4 points to the Bears, so that i can actually pull for the Saints, but I don't think its gonna happen folks, no Nawleans dream season. It would just be too perfect for both the Colts and Saints to be in the Super Bowl, so i'm balking on picking the Aints, though i think they have a good shot. Alright, now its off to Boone for more crashing through fences.
Well, I've made my picks after hearing that Rodney Harrison will not play in Sunday's game. (Plus, I just can't go against Football Outsiders AND Ron Jaworski.) Backpedaling ahoy, Ryan! I'm assigning four points to a Colts victory and six points to a Saints victory. Here's to the Super Bowl everyone wants.

Thursday, January 18

So, uh...I've re-checked my HTML code, and can't figure out what the hell is up with the table being halfway down the page or why Oregon decided to F up. Maybe a new post on top of the table will help with the spacing issues?

Edit: Nope. Damn it.

Power 16 for January 18
TeamKenpomAPPower 16Average
1. Florida2111.3
2. North Carolina1443.0
2. UCLA4323.0
4. Wisconsin6233.7
5. Texas A&M3876.0
5. Kansas8556.0
7. Ohio State5786.7
8. Pittsburgh12668.0
9. Duke7141612.3
10. Arizona17111012.7
11. Memphis10171413.7
12. Oregon
13. Butler18181216.0
14. Air Force22131516.7
15. Kentucky14252120.0
16. Indiana932Not Rated20.5
16. Georgia Tech1130Not Rated20.5

So here's the deal; for the Power 16 from now on we're taking the average of Kenpom rating, AP rank, and ESPN's Power 16 rank. All teams in any of the top 16s were considered; those that were in one or more top 16 but did not make the list are (in order of average score):West Virginia, Connecticut, Louisiana State, Georgetown, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Nevada.

Also, I can't figure out how to get it to show gridlines on Blogger; this format'll have to do.

Sunday, January 14

Wow, what a game. Both Ryan and I finished out the week with two points, giving us both 12 points overall, even though we have different records (John 6-2, Ryan 7-1). All thanks to the greatest quarterback ever, Tom Brady.

Saturday, January 13

Ok, brief post, I gotta run to work

Baltimore (4)
Chicago (3)
New Orleans (2)
New England (1)

And that's the brief version. I'll be back ~3 to 'splain

Thursday, January 11

Ryan's Computer Rankings (Pyth, Def, Cons, Luck, Pyth)
2Duke (yeah, i said Def)
3North Carolina

5West Virginia

9Ohio St.
11Texas A&M

13Missouri St.
16Virginia Tech

ok, i'll explain myself, defense wins championships and its harder to come by. if your team is defensively sound that will be there EVERY GAME offense can come and go, my word is final.
Power 16 for January 11:

2. UNC
3. West Virginia
4. Wisconsin

5. Kansas
6. Florida
7. Texas A&M
8. Duke

9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Arizona
12. Missouri State

13. Memphis
14. Georgia Tech
15. Georgetown
16. Pittsburgh

Wednesday, January 10

Thanks to not having class on Wednesday, my post-video-game-marathon evening was freed to keep Byron awake while I researched this week's playoff games. I think I may actually watch everything I'm in town for, and maybe the ones that I'm not in town for, thanks to Ryan's DVR. I'm basing these picks mostly on rushing DVOA and Weighted Overall DVOA.

4 points: Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks. This one's not even close. Despite what ESPN may try to push on you, this is the least likely of the upsets to occur this weekend. Seattle's run defense sucks; the Bears' doesn't. Chicago is a good team; the Seahawks aren't. End of story.

3 points: Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts. I really struggled to assign point values for the other matchups; I'm really not that sure on any of them. Baltimore's defense is absolutely killer, though, and should be more than capable of stopping both Manning and Addai, or at least slowing them down enough to where the offense can keep up. I'm sensing a low-scoring, close game here, but I feel more confident in Baltimore than I do about the other two teams.

2 points: New England Patriots over San Diego Chargers. While this is my least confident pick, I gave this game two points because of the numbers. Philadelphia and New Orleans are much more evenly matched than the Patriots and the Chargers, both in terms of rushing defense and overall DVOA. I think this will definitely be THE game of the playoffs. The Patriots do a lot of things very well, with rushing defense being one of them. The Chargers, with a respectable defense overall, just do not defend against the rush very well. Both teams have the ability to attack over ground and over air, but I think the Patriots will come out on top. Sorry, Jeff.

1 point: Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans Saints. These are two extremely evenly-matched teams. Their offenses, defenses, and overall DVOA are very similar, but Philadelphia does a bit better on defense. This may be offset by the extra week of rest New Orleans has received; I'm not sure. Whoever the winner is, they'll have trouble matching up against the Bears in the next round, though.

Monday, January 8


not only are we #1 in KP-land, but, he (as promised) has added the "Game Plan" section, with the specific game results for tempo and efficiency, boy i'm glad school doesn't start for another day.
Those worthy of enshrinement into the Hall:

Cal Ripken, Jr.
Tony Gwynn
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Harold Baines
Tommy John

Andre Dawson and Harold Baines each had Hall Standard scores of 43, equivalent to those of Willie Stargell and Lou Brock. To me, those are quality Hall of Fame guys. Jim Rice's and Mark McGwire's Hall Standard scores were just below that at 42, equivalent to such enshrined names as Ryne Sandberg, Bill Terry, Ernie Lombardi, Jim Bottomley, and active player Luis Gonzalez. Now, I've never heard of Terry, Lombardi, or Bottomley, but as we get to the bottom of the Hall Standard scores, the only reason folks get voted in is because they're big names, not because of their stats (Hack Wilson, 39; Kirby Puckett, 38; Jackie Robinson, 37). Rice and McGwire are toeing the line in regards to both their stats and their name recognition, and I don't think that someone on the fence should be elected.

In regards to pitchers, I based my cutoff at 41, because that's what John Smoltz' Hall Standard score is, and I think he should definitely be voted in. Both Blyleven and John had Standard scores above that (50 and 44, respectively). For reference, the Hall Standard scores of Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter, and Don Drysdale are 46, 42, and 42, respectively.

It should be interesting to see what percentages Dawson and Baines get; their scores are identical, but I think far fewer voters will check Baines than Dawson. Also, relievers should not be elected into the Hall of Fame, for reasons I don't think I need to get into.
alright, just a quick props to John and myself it was a 10 point perfect weekend for the both of us, all thanks to Tony Homo. UNC held serve at home tonight to defacto take the #1 spot with the UCLA loss. I'd personally give it to Florida combining the stats aspect to the quality win aspect (OSU) but we all know thats not how it really works. anyways, first appearance at #1 in the AP for the heels since 2000-01, suprising. (sorry, got a little link happy)

next weeks' NFL games, so put your thinking caps on...
Indy @ Baltimore
Philly @ N'awlins
Seattle @ Chicago
NE @ San Diego

and to leave everyone with a smile on their face (that's Greg Paulus on the bottom btw):

(yay! a PICTURE on the blog, and a good one at that)

Saturday, January 6

Sorry, I was away from the free world for the past two days moving furniture in Collettsville and forgot they played NFL games on Saturdays now (who knew?). So you'll have to trust me on this one when I say I picked all these games before this weekend. Since the Colts game has already ended by this point, I'll list them as my 1 game. I have not seen any of the Seahawks/Cowboys game yet; after I post I plan to go watch it.

Basically, they're all the home teams for this round; just couldn't see picking against any of them, even though I told Ryan I was picking one away team (I was on the fence about the Cowboys). I'm going: 4 points to the Patriots, 3 points to the Eagles, 2 to the Seahawks, and 1 to the Colts. Yes, that's 1 point that's guaranteed, but I think I earned at least that much with my overall record this season. Hopefully Ryan and I will differ somewhat in our picks for next week.

Friday, January 5

ok, its time for the games that count, PLAYOFF PICK'EM. i'm going to test out the new system of ranking games in order of confidence and see how it compares to the usual W-L method. i'm all for having a money game, but i dunno which it will be, so that will have to be added PS (or PP post post).

Games (in order of appearance)

Chiefs @ Colts: This goes against the recent article on FO, that defense correlates strongly to playoff success, specifically run defense, but i'll chalk the Colts up to being an anomaly. The Chiefs' pass defense is too leaky and the Colts should build up a healthy lead. Besides, LJ will blow out his ACL in the 2nd quarter, season carry number 436. I'll take the COLTS (3) in a shootout.

Cowboys @ Seahawks: I had my mind made up on this one a while ago, the cowboys couldn't beat several NCAA teams right now, Romo is hitting the rookie wall (ie, when the other team gets your game film) and their defense also can't contain the Seahawks offense. SEAHAWKS (2)

Jets @ Patriots: In an article I was reading there was a conspiracy theory presented saying the Pats threw the game against the Jets earlier so that the Broncos wouldn't make the playoffs, well it worked, and now the Pats get an easy win at home, much easier than against the Broncos. PATRIOTS (4)

Giants @ Eagles: This is the closest game, they split and know each other well. The Giants haven't shown the ability to win in the playoffs with this group of players (see 23-0 last season) and I have no reason to believe they'll turn it around now, other than the X Factor, Tiki busting out to stay on the field. Thats why this one is getting a "1" from me. EAGLES (1)

yeah, yeah, all home teams, but i figure if i guess wrong on the upset and there is one (likely) i'd be 2-2, if i don't guess i'm probably going to be 3-1. Besides, my intuition, stats, and FO predictions all line up, this seems like a solid week.

In other news, John?!?
yeah, a post before 4 would be ideal, i know that his picks are one different then mine, so i trust him if he posts tonight, i just don't know his point values. my guess is he didn't know the games were on saturday, oh well.

Thursday, January 4

Power 16 for January 4:

2. Arizona
3. Duke
4. UNC

5. West Virginia
6. Connecticut
7. Ohio State
8. Wisconsin

9. Texas A&M
10. Florida
11. Butler
12. Memphis

13. Maryland
14. Alabama
15. Kansas
16. Notre Dame

Monday, January 1


Ryan takes the cake in the last week of the season and proudly/promptly posts the season's results:

Week 17
Ryan: 6-2 (33-47)
John: 4-4 (44-36)
combo platter (mmm, general tso's AND lo mein): 2-1 (19-26)

good year, thanks to everyone involved, especially byron and his computer picks for giving us some excitement a few weeks ago. now: ONTO THE PLAYOFFS, that's right, all this was just a warmup for the serious picking. the matchups are set so get you thinking caps on:

edit: the Panther's 2007 opponents are out: NFC West (score!) and the AFC South (ouch), along with Green Bay on the road and Dallas at home.

Oh, and an impromptu bowl game pick'em if john reads this before 1 o'clock:
Outback: Penn St over Tenn
Cotton: Auburn over Nebraska
Capital One: Arkansas over Wisconsin
Gator: West Virginia over GT (by a LARGE margain)
Rose: Michigan over USC
Fiesta: Oklahoma over Boise St. (Peterson 245 yds 3 TDs, gets drafted #4 overall to Cleveland)
Orange: Louisville over Wake Forest
Sugar: LSU over ND (i mean, its a home game)
BCS: Ohio St over Florida (greg oden gets his revenge at tight end)
(sorry, no GMAC or Intl bowls)

KenPom watch:
UNC rose to #3 with a strong defensive outing against Dayton allowing 51 pts on 75 poss (67.42) and scoring 81 pts on 76 poss (105.81). this slid the Heels to 5th on offense but 9th on defense.