Sunday, November 13

Ryan's Favorite Numbers

Just wanted to try something out. Maybe not all of you heard, but KenPom is going all big time on us, and charging for a subscription. Personally, I plan on buying in, but I wanted to share some of the important stuff with y'all. So, after each UNC game I'll email out the Game Plan line (the 4 Factor Summary) to those parties interested, or at least my estimation of that list. The line is below, as a quick recap the numbers from left to right are Efficiency, effective Field Goal Percentage (where FGs are weighted by point value), Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebound Percentage and Free Throw Rate.

Anyways, each game I'm going to throw in a Favorite and Not Favorite Number. As the season progresses I might start to get a little fancier, for example a player's usage in a given game or something else homebrewed.

Favorite - 51.0% eFG, pretty decent shooting night, and I'd have to say I felt the shots weren't dropping. There seemed to be a lot of good shot selection that was unrewarded, but I'm not sure how to go about confirming this without some sort of game charting system. Anyways, we didn't lose any game in which we shot 51.0 or greater eFG last year, though we came close in the ACC tourney playing Miami (and turning the ball over on nearly 1/3 of our possessions)

Not Favorite - 45.9 OR% (against), pretty easy to guess this one, as I texted Cason seeing Watts really drove me crazy. He is a great energy guy who has his place, but this isn't last year and his place really can't be the 4 spot. We were playing the defensive boards pretty poorly with Zeller, and then we sent Watts in to try and box out Draymond Green, wtf Roy. Hopefully he realized he has 3 freshmen who can rebound better (well, maybe, we'll see about Simmons). It would be neat to break down the first half's runs (6-0 UNC, 15-2 MSU, rest of half ~24-5 UNC) with the number of rebounds.

Alright, in general I was pleased with UNC's play, but I really couldn't tell if it was solid defense or a Spartan team that just can't shoot. It will be nice to see as the season progresses, also worth noting that despite the OR%, the 79 Defensive Efficiency posted would have been good for 4th on the season last year, and we only held 2 BCS teams that low: Rutgers and BC.

Date Opponent Result Pace Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR | Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR
Fri Nov 11 34 Michigan St. W, 67-55 N 70 96 51 20.1 22.1 45 | 79 31.9 21.6 45.9 18
(really sorry KP, hope you don't find this and sue me)