Just thought I'd take down some thoughts as I watch a very interesting Saturday in college basketball. A several pairs of highly KenPom-rated teams are going at it today:
(5)G'town @ (1)Duke: Duke won a game that was somewhat closer than the score indicated. With Monroe saddled with 3 fouls the Blue Devils took an 11-0 run to lead 40-29 at the half. Similarly in the second, the Hoyas were within 4 when Monroe picked up #4 (a technical from the bench), without Monroe (the Hoyas main rebounding threat) in the the game, the Blue Devils pulled away, knocking down shots in their 5 guard spread offense. Singler started slowly and shot poorly (7-18, 1-6), but was able to contribute in other ways, mainly with 5 offensive and 13 total rebounds, Henderson was able to pick up the Blue Devils' offense with 23 pts (10-15, 3-6).
Bottom Line: The Hoyas are a good all around team, with a gimmick offense that can catch some teams flat-footed and a true star in Greg Monroe, but the Devils staunch defense and small lineup did a good job defending the "Georgetown" (read: modified Princeton) offense, and without offensive trickery and their star, the Hoyas were somewhat easily vanquished. As always, when the Devils are hustling on defense, they easily outwork their size disadvantage. Similarly on the offensive end, when the shots are dropping for any of their main weapons (Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson)*, the Devils are hard to beat.
(8)Wake @ (17)Clemson: Early, Clemson had seemed to suck Wake in to a helter-skelter, poorly organized, style of play, during which the Tigers were hanging tough and seeming to avoid the Deacons half court defense. Since then Wake has seemed to take control, executing by making open jumpers, running the break well, and keeping Clemson off the offensive glass which helped their defense shine through. Opening the second, the Deacons do their best Tar Heel impression, running out to a 12 point lead on a made three and easy (I mean EASY) transition baskets, including a ferocious dunk by Aminu. The most impressive thing about Wake, aside from their defense, is their laundry list of big bodies to both rebound and play defense. A bonus is that none of them are good enough to be missed when in foul, except perhaps Aminu. Wake Forest's matchup with Duke next week should be interesting, their offensive styles are in stark contrast while they both play excellent defense (#4 and #2 respectively). Needless to say, I am quite jealous of the Demon Deacon defense. They are using a very Tar Heel-esque blueprint of speed and offensive rebounding on offensive, but their zone defense seems to be working better for them than intense switching man-to-man has for the boys in powder blue (come on, Marcus...).
Bottom Line: This is a very familiar Clemson team, who relies on outside shooting runs and full court pressure, that works against 80% of the country, but won't against the top three teams in the ACC. Wake has taken a large step forward, with the addition of a few extra big bodies, and a talented freshman (think Marvin Williams) in Aminu. They will challenge for the ACC and the 3 game lead the Heels have given them will be a tall mountain to climb. The more I watch this game, the better and better I feel about the Heels 3 point loss in Winston-Salem.
(9)Ariz St @ (10)UCLA: Wow, Arizona St's road unis are classy. I'm a sucker for simple, clean, classic designs. I'll also have to confess that I had NO idea Herb Sendek was in the Pitino coaching tree. It will be interesting to watch a Sendek team flow through one player as much as the Sun Devils do, James Harden (if you haven't heard of him, look him up) uses 34% of possessions while playing 83% of the team's minutes. Early, Harden's offensive prowess is drawing the attention of literally every Bruin at that end of the court. The Bruins have no individual defensive stopper with the size and speed to match up with Harden, while his teammates have been able to hit the open shots they've been the beneficiaries of. Arizona St's zone had seemed to perplex UCLA into poor outside shots, and to more than make up for the Sun Devils lack of size (only one player 6-9 on the starting lineup, 201st in effective height). The Bruins have been able to have some jumpers fall and score when the zone isn't fully set (on fast breaks and offensive rebounds) to bring the game to a tie late in the first. The Bruins march continues into the second. They're double-teaming Harden on one end and getting into the fast break and hitting shots opened up by their excellent passing to beat the once perplexing ASU zone.
Bottom Line: UCLA has the offense of past years, while their defense has slipped, Arizona State is in the Georgetown mold, with a go to guy that they are too reliant on, not that I can blame Herb Sendek, because James Harden is a special player now, and will be in the NBA (think Brandon Roy).
I won't be watching (14)L'ville host (4)Pittsburgh, but I will be interested to see how Pitt handles only its second real challenge of the season. The AP #1 Panthers have only played one other team in the KenPom top 50, a win at Georgetown early in the Big East schedule
*I'm intentionally leaving out Smith, who's main contribution is sound ball handing (a 23.5 TORate is an improvement over Paulus who averaged a 30 TORate the last 2 years). His assist and steal rates are respectively 2nd and 3rd on the team, among starters. As a side note, Mile Plumlee has a 45.4 TORate, he's a forward, right? Its no wonder Coach K doesn't run a standard offense.
As a bonus, I'll go ahead and throw together an underrated/overrated list with KenPom and the AP. I'll use the AP rankings out to about 42 (43-47 all only received 1 25th place vote, but I will mention AP #44 Mizzou)
Overrated (AP/KP)
Texas (11/30)
Minnesota (18/40)
Syracuse (8/32)
Michigan (25/51)
Florida St. (31/58)
Notre Dame (12/43)
St. Mary's (30/62)
George Mason (41/77)
Boston College (37/81)
Arkansas (27/90)
Most of the teams are mysterious, I don't know why half of them are on anyone's top 25 ballot, while some are more obvious (BC). Florida St., Syracuse, and Notre Dame are benefiting from playing in strong conferences. I didn't realized George Mason was still riding the publicity bump from 3 years ago. Oh, and who the hell voted for Arkansas?
Underrated (AP/KP) NV=No Votes (appeared on 0 ballots)
Missouri (44/11)
West Virginia (36/7)
Washington (NV/25)
Gonzaga (26/2)
Kansas St. (NV/26)
Utah (NV/27)
Brigham Young (34/13)
Kansas (38/19)
Memphis (29/12)
Illinois (28/16)
USC and Kentucky would be on this list, but KP has taken into account their recent upsets (ASU and Tenn) while the AP hasn't, I'll bet they show up on a ballot or two this week. Some good teams are getting no attention at all (UK, but that will change) Washington, K-State, and Utah are no where to be found, on any ballot. Then there are those that the national media know about but apparently don't respect enough: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Memphis and Mizzou. Obviously due to the absurd nature of polls, teams with 4 losses (Zags, WVU) can't be ranked high nationally, no matter how respectable the losses may be.
Saturday, January 17
Tuesday, January 13
Championship round
That's what they call it, right?
Ravens @ Steelers
Eagles @ Cardinals
Birds abound! Allocate 10 points between the two games any way you please.
Ravens @ Steelers
Eagles @ Cardinals
Birds abound! Allocate 10 points between the two games any way you please.
Wednesday, January 7
Divisional Round
Ravens @ Titans
Birds @ Cats
Eagles @ Giants
Bolts @ Steelers
Updated standings:
1. Ryan 6 (6-2)
T1. John 6 (5-3)
3. Lucy -12 (2-6)
"My support seems to be the kiss of death."
Birds @ Cats
Eagles @ Giants
Bolts @ Steelers
Updated standings:
1. Ryan 6 (6-2)
T1. John 6 (5-3)
3. Lucy -12 (2-6)
"My support seems to be the kiss of death."
Monday, January 5
Follow up to Anatomy of an Upset
Ryan's excellent post gave a number of good reasons why we lost. The Ken Pomeroy stats reveal our porous defense combined with poor free throw shooting and rebounding equals a loss. By looking at different games, Ryan shows how we're underperforming.
I wanted to poing out some of the x's and o's reasons we lost. Strategically, BC held us out of the break in the first half and most of the second by sending as many guys as possible for offensive rebounds. By pulling down lots of first half offensive rebounds (I believe we were outrebounded but I'll have to verify) and battling for rebounds every other time, we couldn't get into our secondary break. Previously, we saw that sending a safety or two back on defense was the best way to slow our break as Kansas and Valparaiso have shown. This time, we were undone by poor defensive rebounding, leading to few opportunities for run-outs.
Next, BC's flex set offense flummoxed our defense. A basic flex set employs lots of screens, movement and passing to lose defenders or create mismatches. This is used almost exclusively against man-to-man defenses and often means medium-to-long possessions on offense. Other characteristics of the flex set are: it's easy to learn, everyone knows that they should do next, and you don't need to create your own shot to be successful (although nobody told Tyrese Rice).
If you recall BC's offensive sets, they would line up 4 men parallel to the backboard, in between the FT line and 3 pt line. Rice is the odd man out, bringing the ball up the right side of the floor. The flex set would then spring to life as O2 and O4 would set screens for each other and O3 or O5 would stay in the lane while the other drifted closer to the basket. In short, this means a lot of action taking place around the free throw line, where a player can pass off to a 3 pt shooter with relative ease or look for a man posting up down low. Mid-range shots can also open up easily as a player whose defender is tired or confused can be lost in the myriad of screens and end up taking the wrong man.
I've certainly complained about our guards' abilities to communicate and get around screens quicker. Last night, there were missed assignments galore as Rice and Sanders got good mid and long range looks through the flex set. Also, Rice hit some extremely difficult shots that were close to indefensible. Credit him for having the soft touch to hit some step back jumpers and circus shots.
My next bone to pick is with our half court trap. I may never understand why Roy didn't put his foot down at halftime (or sooner) and tell everyone to quit trapping. It felt like the BC-UNC football game, where BC curiously decided to leave Hakim Nicks in single coverage. I wondered why they would risk getting burned over and over and over and over again. Well, Roy returned the favor by allowing us to keep gambling on the half court trap. We got burned over and over and over and over again.
BC got lots of open shots because Al Skinner and Tyrese Rice did their homework. Rice knew where the help would be each time. As a consequence, our defense had to shift and recover, leaving Reggie Jackson open. Since we're known to trap after timeouts, some FTs or out of bounds plays, BC had a fair idea of when the trap was coming. We continued to gamble after halftime to much the same result.
On defense, Boston College did a good job of pulling 4 or 5 men into the lane to force bad shots and turnovers. We shot 9-25 for 2 pt FGs in the 2nd half, a testament to the strong BC defense. The Eagles were physical. Hansbrough was well covered, being forced off the block or doubled to prevent a good entry pass. Although Hansbrough made his shots, Deon Thompson and Danny Green struggled.
If you watched Deon's body language when he shot FT's, it was clear he was winded. Pushing and being pushed often tends to leave one's arms tired. His 1-6 shooting hurt our comeback chances.
Since we were behind for most of the game and didn't have our inside shots falling, we started hoisting 3's with about 7 minutes left. Wayne's 3 pt shot is still MIA. Ty, Danny and Will Graves shot 33% individually and as a whole. Roy may or may not have addressed the eagarness of our 3 pt shooting, but the Heels kept shooting away.
Finally, we didn't try to foul like a team that's trailing should. No one other than Rice was a remarkable free throw shooter, why did we not try fouling earlier? Why not send Larry Drew, Will Graves or Marcus Ginyard to foul the poorer shooters, let the crowd yell during FT attempts, and grab the rebounds? At 78-71, would it have killed us to start fouling to save time and make them earn their points? It's not like we would run out of bench players. This is my boldest assertion of this post, but I'm a bit perplexed as to why we wouldn't make them get their points 1 or 2 at a time instead of 2 or 3 at a time. With guards doing so much shooting, it's less likely to have continuation fouls where the shot counts and a FT is awarded.
In summation, BC's stratetic moves and our un-strategic moves fueled a significant defeat. I hope that our players and our coaches will realize the mistakes that were made. As a consqequence of this game, we'll see more teams following Boston College's formula for beating us. Hopefully we'll be better prepared to stop beating ourselves and resume beaing our opponents.
I wanted to poing out some of the x's and o's reasons we lost. Strategically, BC held us out of the break in the first half and most of the second by sending as many guys as possible for offensive rebounds. By pulling down lots of first half offensive rebounds (I believe we were outrebounded but I'll have to verify) and battling for rebounds every other time, we couldn't get into our secondary break. Previously, we saw that sending a safety or two back on defense was the best way to slow our break as Kansas and Valparaiso have shown. This time, we were undone by poor defensive rebounding, leading to few opportunities for run-outs.
Next, BC's flex set offense flummoxed our defense. A basic flex set employs lots of screens, movement and passing to lose defenders or create mismatches. This is used almost exclusively against man-to-man defenses and often means medium-to-long possessions on offense. Other characteristics of the flex set are: it's easy to learn, everyone knows that they should do next, and you don't need to create your own shot to be successful (although nobody told Tyrese Rice).
If you recall BC's offensive sets, they would line up 4 men parallel to the backboard, in between the FT line and 3 pt line. Rice is the odd man out, bringing the ball up the right side of the floor. The flex set would then spring to life as O2 and O4 would set screens for each other and O3 or O5 would stay in the lane while the other drifted closer to the basket. In short, this means a lot of action taking place around the free throw line, where a player can pass off to a 3 pt shooter with relative ease or look for a man posting up down low. Mid-range shots can also open up easily as a player whose defender is tired or confused can be lost in the myriad of screens and end up taking the wrong man.
I've certainly complained about our guards' abilities to communicate and get around screens quicker. Last night, there were missed assignments galore as Rice and Sanders got good mid and long range looks through the flex set. Also, Rice hit some extremely difficult shots that were close to indefensible. Credit him for having the soft touch to hit some step back jumpers and circus shots.
My next bone to pick is with our half court trap. I may never understand why Roy didn't put his foot down at halftime (or sooner) and tell everyone to quit trapping. It felt like the BC-UNC football game, where BC curiously decided to leave Hakim Nicks in single coverage. I wondered why they would risk getting burned over and over and over and over again. Well, Roy returned the favor by allowing us to keep gambling on the half court trap. We got burned over and over and over and over again.
BC got lots of open shots because Al Skinner and Tyrese Rice did their homework. Rice knew where the help would be each time. As a consequence, our defense had to shift and recover, leaving Reggie Jackson open. Since we're known to trap after timeouts, some FTs or out of bounds plays, BC had a fair idea of when the trap was coming. We continued to gamble after halftime to much the same result.
On defense, Boston College did a good job of pulling 4 or 5 men into the lane to force bad shots and turnovers. We shot 9-25 for 2 pt FGs in the 2nd half, a testament to the strong BC defense. The Eagles were physical. Hansbrough was well covered, being forced off the block or doubled to prevent a good entry pass. Although Hansbrough made his shots, Deon Thompson and Danny Green struggled.
If you watched Deon's body language when he shot FT's, it was clear he was winded. Pushing and being pushed often tends to leave one's arms tired. His 1-6 shooting hurt our comeback chances.
Since we were behind for most of the game and didn't have our inside shots falling, we started hoisting 3's with about 7 minutes left. Wayne's 3 pt shot is still MIA. Ty, Danny and Will Graves shot 33% individually and as a whole. Roy may or may not have addressed the eagarness of our 3 pt shooting, but the Heels kept shooting away.
Finally, we didn't try to foul like a team that's trailing should. No one other than Rice was a remarkable free throw shooter, why did we not try fouling earlier? Why not send Larry Drew, Will Graves or Marcus Ginyard to foul the poorer shooters, let the crowd yell during FT attempts, and grab the rebounds? At 78-71, would it have killed us to start fouling to save time and make them earn their points? It's not like we would run out of bench players. This is my boldest assertion of this post, but I'm a bit perplexed as to why we wouldn't make them get their points 1 or 2 at a time instead of 2 or 3 at a time. With guards doing so much shooting, it's less likely to have continuation fouls where the shot counts and a FT is awarded.
In summation, BC's stratetic moves and our un-strategic moves fueled a significant defeat. I hope that our players and our coaches will realize the mistakes that were made. As a consqequence of this game, we'll see more teams following Boston College's formula for beating us. Hopefully we'll be better prepared to stop beating ourselves and resume beaing our opponents.
The Anatomy of an Upset
(Ok, I apologize for the length of this post, if you want the short and sweet version, scroll down to the "Basically" I've bolded in the second to last paragraph, it is a happy synopsis)
So, remeber how, at the beginning of the season, I remarked that the Heels have won games with several of the 4 factors. Well, since the Oregon game, they haven't exactly won any games with FG defense. In fact, excluding the Nevada game, the Heels defense has allowed 50.9% eFG over the last 5 games. And not against stop notch competition either (ORU, Evansville, Valpo, Rutgers, & BC). This is quite disconcerting, however the Heels defense is built to stand on other factors averaging turnovers on 26% of their opponents possessions in those same games (that would average about 15th in the nation for the season UNC's season average is 23.9 good for 49th).
Now, your opponents can shoot the lights out of the gym if you can limit offensive boards and cause turnovers. For the uninitiated, imagine a team that allows the opponent to make every shot they take, but force a turnover on 75% of possessions, that's as good as forcing 25% shooting while forcing no turnovers. Now, imagine they go up against a team of all point guards, who never turn the ball over. In this matchup, allowing the opponent to sink every attempt causes a huge problem because you don't end the possesions before the shots occur.
Snap back to reality. This is pretty much what UNC did (or failed to do). They were relying on steals and defensive rebounding to cover up their inability to defend shots. Well, BC does a great job taking care of the ball (17.5 TO% 25th) and offensively rebounding (40.9 OR% 16th), countering UNC's defensive strengths.
Now, what was the icing on the cake? The Heels have played defense this poorly before (as you can see above, Notre Dame posted a 119 OE in Maui). However, in this example the Heels offense simultaneously failed them. Shooting 55% from the free throw line won't win you any games (in fact it will lose you many). Also, it was UNC's worst night from the field of the season. This was likely because the turnovers weren't available to lead to layups and fast breaks. Winning on turnovers and with a fast pace is a double-edged sword (much like winning on 3 pointers, yes I'm looking at you coach K), you limit the opponent's shots, but you also give yourself 10 to 12 "bunnies" per game, bouying even the poorest shooting team's field goal percentage. All this lead to UNC's poorest offensive efficiency number of the year, but only by a hair. As you can see in the table above, UNC posted a similarly poor 104 against Kentucky, its other sub 50% eFG game, but forced enough turnover and limited offensive rebounds to win the game (handily).
Basically, if you combine the porous defense against Notre Dame, with the weak offensive output against Kentucky, you get almost identical stats to the BC loss. The Heels have played like this at various times during the year, but the other end of the floor happened to pick them up to hide such ugly performances. UNC's strength is its depth and talent, the Heels can win games in a number of different ways. But take solace, UNC fans, in the fact that a loss like last night's occurs when all of those ways fail.
On another note, and I don't want to sound cocky here, but the looming top ten matchup between UNC and Wake Forest may be more of a dud than a stud, as Wake's turnover rate is something of a bugaboo (21.1 181st), though it should be one horse race of a dud projecting at around 85 possessions. Check back for more on that game and throughout the ACC season.
Friday, January 2
If anyone's interested...
Here are the matchups for the wild card round.
Dirty Birds @ Redbirds
Colts @ Bolts
'Vens @ Fins
Philly @ Minny
This will be separate from the regular season pick'em and will probably just be for bragging rights (since I know Ryan is anxious to display his playoff pick'em prowess). Interested parties (Lucy, this includes you) should pick all four games, weighted. Four points for your most certain pick; one point for your least certain. Incorrect picks will be penalized the amount of the weight, correct picks will be awarded that amount. The lines are all under a field goal anyway, and it's winner advances at this stage, so picking winners feels better.
1. Ryan 4 (3-1)
T1. John 4 (2-2)
3. Lucy -4 (1-3)
Dirty Birds @ Redbirds
Colts @ Bolts
'Vens @ Fins
Philly @ Minny
This will be separate from the regular season pick'em and will probably just be for bragging rights (since I know Ryan is anxious to display his playoff pick'em prowess). Interested parties (Lucy, this includes you) should pick all four games, weighted. Four points for your most certain pick; one point for your least certain. Incorrect picks will be penalized the amount of the weight, correct picks will be awarded that amount. The lines are all under a field goal anyway, and it's winner advances at this stage, so picking winners feels better.
1. Ryan 4 (3-1)
T1. John 4 (2-2)
3. Lucy -4 (1-3)
Monday, December 29
Final NFL Pick'em Standings, 2008 Edition
1) John 17-8-2 (1.5, 18)
2) Jason 15-11-1 (0, 15.5)
3) Ryan 14-14-2 (1, 15)
4) Kevin 14-15-1 (1, 14.5)
Consensus: 13-7
John continues his run as the pick'em king, and we saw that we might not do as well in Vegas as initially suspected, going 13-7 on the year in consensus games (but that record is likely skewed by certain parties picking games they might not have chosen initially in order to catch up in the standings, thus putting fewer W's in the books).
2) Jason 15-11-1 (0, 15.5)
3) Ryan 14-14-2 (1, 15)
4) Kevin 14-15-1 (1, 14.5)
Consensus: 13-7
John continues his run as the pick'em king, and we saw that we might not do as well in Vegas as initially suspected, going 13-7 on the year in consensus games (but that record is likely skewed by certain parties picking games they might not have chosen initially in order to catch up in the standings, thus putting fewer W's in the books).
Wednesday, December 24
Week 17 Spreads
First off, thanks to Cason for spot on analysis as always, if you're here for the Heels/College Basketball insight see below. Also, expect more college basketball coming up, as the player stats are up on Ken Pom, and each team begins to build a worthwhile statistical resume. There will be an extensive preview before the Tar Heels next first test, at Wake Forest Jan 11th. Onto ATS pick 'em.
This is it folks (unless John wants to give up his stranglehold and do a playoff version?)
The AFC is also giving a point in the Super Bowl, in case you were curious. It's Christmas, so let's say due by midnight Friday, along with your opinion of playoff pick 'em.
Happy Holidays everyone.
Edit: I'm assuming your "Cats" was of the Cardiac variety, Ryan?
This is it folks (unless John wants to give up his stranglehold and do a playoff version?)
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Tampa Bay | -12.5 | Oakland | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Green Bay | -9.5 | Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Philadelphia (JA) | -1.5 | Dallas (RC) | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Minnesota (KS) | -6.5 | NY Giants | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Houston | -2.5 | Chicago (JA) | Sun | 1:00 |
| Carolina (RC) | -3 | @New Orleans | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Atlanta | -14 | St. Louis | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Cincinnati | -3 | Kansas City | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Baltimore | -12 | Jacksonville | Sun | 4:15 |
| Tennessee | -3 | @Indianapolis | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Pittsburgh | -10.5 | Cleveland | Sun | 1:00 |
| @NY Jets | -3 | Miami (KS) | Sun | 4:15 |
| New England (RC) | -6.5 | @Buffalo | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Arizona | -6 | Seattle | Sun | 4:15 |
| @San Francisco | -3 | Washington (JA) | Sun | 4:15 |
| @San Diego | -8 | Denver (KS) | Sun | 8:15 |
The AFC is also giving a point in the Super Bowl, in case you were curious. It's Christmas, so let's say due by midnight Friday, along with your opinion of playoff pick 'em.
Happy Holidays everyone.
Edit: I'm assuming your "Cats" was of the Cardiac variety, Ryan?
Monday, December 22
Valparaiso Game Review
Yours truly attended the UNC-Valparaiso game in the United Center on Saturday. Since this was one of my few chances to see the Heels, I went with 3 co-workers who graduated in '08 and '06.
Going to the United Center as a Heels fan is, I would imagine, like going to UNC if you are a big MJ fan. It's seeing someone you've followed so closely for a successful period in their lives in a totally different environment, with different fans, teammates, coaches, high tops, etc. We happened to sit right under the retired Jordan jersey in the rafters of the United Center, and within easy view of all six World Championship banners. It really makes you appreciate both the Bulls' hard work and that they won 3 titles with 2 Tar Heels and 2 Hawkeyes on their team.
The game itself was uneventful as our games go. Bobby Frasor did not start, which took all of us by surprise. Also, Valpo was the home team and took it quite seriously as they brought their band and students with them behind one of the baskets. They also had quite a few fans, even though Carolina fans outnumbered them about 3-2. Valpo also watched a lot of tape and frustrated us with their box and 1 defense. We had a very difficult time getting the ball inside via Ty, Wayne, Danny, Deon or Tyler. We settled for jumpers or turned the ball over.
On the flip side, Valpo had an effective flex set offense. Their center-forward managed to get the basket over and over because of our confusion on defense. They also hit their 3's and were winning for about the first 8 minutes. Their guards and forwards also managed to lose Wayne, Danny and Deon easily for backdoor cuts. I wasn't seriously concerned, since we made them force shots and commit turnovers, but it made me think what a team with better players could do with that defense.
At this point, I ought to mention that I have never liked Valpo for what they did to Ole Miss in 1998. Ole Miss was a 4 seed ten years ago in the NCAA tournament and the coach's son (of all the people who could hit a game winning shot, it was the coach's son!!!) hit the winning 3 pointer as time expired. Until 2005, this was the main reason my dad had such a hard time watching the NCAA tournament.
As the game wore on, we were reminded why zone defenses tend to lose their effectiveness against our team. We kept getting easy rebounds and put backs. As the fouls mounted, their big men couldn't really guard anyone for fear of fouling out.
A couple of notes:
Urule Igbavboa, Valparaiso Center, threw down a dunk on Tyler in the first half when we employed the Red Sea defense. You could tell he was still thinking about it when he kept looking up at the big screens in the first half. I could tell he was still thinking about it in the second half when he smiled after being fouled and airballed the FT.
Wayne Ellington's jump shot is still MIA.
Valpo used a safety or two on offense so we had very few fast break opportunities. They did a good job of always having at least 2 guys in the paint when we brought the ball to half court.
The force was not with Danny Green on Saturday.
All the scrubs who played got on the stat sheet one way or another.
Deon continues to be efficient, going 3-4 on FG and 6-8 on FT.
Hey, we still forced 25 To's.
The Jordan statue in front of the United Center is awesome, you need to get your picture taken there.
Going to the United Center as a Heels fan is, I would imagine, like going to UNC if you are a big MJ fan. It's seeing someone you've followed so closely for a successful period in their lives in a totally different environment, with different fans, teammates, coaches, high tops, etc. We happened to sit right under the retired Jordan jersey in the rafters of the United Center, and within easy view of all six World Championship banners. It really makes you appreciate both the Bulls' hard work and that they won 3 titles with 2 Tar Heels and 2 Hawkeyes on their team.
The game itself was uneventful as our games go. Bobby Frasor did not start, which took all of us by surprise. Also, Valpo was the home team and took it quite seriously as they brought their band and students with them behind one of the baskets. They also had quite a few fans, even though Carolina fans outnumbered them about 3-2. Valpo also watched a lot of tape and frustrated us with their box and 1 defense. We had a very difficult time getting the ball inside via Ty, Wayne, Danny, Deon or Tyler. We settled for jumpers or turned the ball over.
On the flip side, Valpo had an effective flex set offense. Their center-forward managed to get the basket over and over because of our confusion on defense. They also hit their 3's and were winning for about the first 8 minutes. Their guards and forwards also managed to lose Wayne, Danny and Deon easily for backdoor cuts. I wasn't seriously concerned, since we made them force shots and commit turnovers, but it made me think what a team with better players could do with that defense.
At this point, I ought to mention that I have never liked Valpo for what they did to Ole Miss in 1998. Ole Miss was a 4 seed ten years ago in the NCAA tournament and the coach's son (of all the people who could hit a game winning shot, it was the coach's son!!!) hit the winning 3 pointer as time expired. Until 2005, this was the main reason my dad had such a hard time watching the NCAA tournament.
As the game wore on, we were reminded why zone defenses tend to lose their effectiveness against our team. We kept getting easy rebounds and put backs. As the fouls mounted, their big men couldn't really guard anyone for fear of fouling out.
A couple of notes:
Urule Igbavboa, Valparaiso Center, threw down a dunk on Tyler in the first half when we employed the Red Sea defense. You could tell he was still thinking about it when he kept looking up at the big screens in the first half. I could tell he was still thinking about it in the second half when he smiled after being fouled and airballed the FT.
Wayne Ellington's jump shot is still MIA.
Valpo used a safety or two on offense so we had very few fast break opportunities. They did a good job of always having at least 2 guys in the paint when we brought the ball to half court.
The force was not with Danny Green on Saturday.
All the scrubs who played got on the stat sheet one way or another.
Deon continues to be efficient, going 3-4 on FG and 6-8 on FT.
Hey, we still forced 25 To's.
The Jordan statue in front of the United Center is awesome, you need to get your picture taken there.
Standings after Week 16
1) John 16-7-1 (3, 16.5)
2) Jason 15-11-1 (1, 15.5)
3) Ryan 13-12-2 (1, 14)
4) Kevin 13-13-1 (2, 13.5)
Consensus: 13-7
Nice week for John, as he goes a perfect 3-0 to take an outright lead despite coming in after Week 1. Baltimore (win) and Pittsburgh (loss) were the consensus picks this week.
Are we picking Week 17 games? The way I see it, it actually shouldn't matter much because only two teams have clinched home field advantage - the Giants and the Titans. Those are the only two teams who can afford to rest their starters this week. Everyone else should be vying for better playoff seeding (if they're in or in the hunt for the playoffs) or playing spoiler if they've been eliminated from playoff consideration already. Games between two non-playoff teams (WAS/SF, CIN/KC, GB/DET) should still be fine as everyone's padding their stats, still, right? (Not to mention the fact that the Lions are trying to avoid going winless, and the Packers are trying to avoid being the only team to lose to the 2008 Lions.) Thoughts?
2) Jason 15-11-1 (1, 15.5)
3) Ryan 13-12-2 (1, 14)
4) Kevin 13-13-1 (2, 13.5)
Consensus: 13-7
Nice week for John, as he goes a perfect 3-0 to take an outright lead despite coming in after Week 1. Baltimore (win) and Pittsburgh (loss) were the consensus picks this week.
Are we picking Week 17 games? The way I see it, it actually shouldn't matter much because only two teams have clinched home field advantage - the Giants and the Titans. Those are the only two teams who can afford to rest their starters this week. Everyone else should be vying for better playoff seeding (if they're in or in the hunt for the playoffs) or playing spoiler if they've been eliminated from playoff consideration already. Games between two non-playoff teams (WAS/SF, CIN/KC, GB/DET) should still be fine as everyone's padding their stats, still, right? (Not to mention the fact that the Lions are trying to avoid going winless, and the Packers are trying to avoid being the only team to lose to the 2008 Lions.) Thoughts?
Wednesday, December 17
Week 16 Spreads
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis (KS) | -6.5 | @Jacksonville | Thurs | 8:15 |
| @Dallas | -4.5 | Baltimore (JA, RC) | Sat | 8:15 |
| Pittsburgh (RC, JS) | -1.5 | @Tennessee | Sun | 1:00 |
| Miami (JS) | -4 | @Kansas City | Sun | 1:00 |
| @New England | -8 | Arizona | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Cleveland | -3 | Cincinnati | Sun | 1:00 |
| San Francisco | -5.5 | @St. Louis | Sun | 1:00 |
| New Orleans (JA) | -7 | @Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Tampa Bay (RC) | -3.5 | San Diego | Sun | 1:00 |
| NY Jets | -5 | @Seattle | Sun | 4:05 |
| Houston (JS) | -7 | @Oakland | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Denver | -7 | Buffalo | Sun | 4:05 |
| Philadelphia | -5 | @Washington | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Minnesota (KS) | -3.5 | Atlanta (JA) | Sun | 4:15 |
| @NY Giants (KS) | -3 | Carolina | Sun | 8:15 |
| @Chicago | -4.5 | Green Bay | Mon | 8:35 |
Thursday game should be called by 5 today if possible, everything else by 5 Friday.
Sunday, December 14
Standings after Week 15
1) Jason 14-9-1 (0, 14.5)
2) John 13-7-1 (0.5, 13.5)
3) Ryan 12-10-2 (0.5, 13)
4) Kevin 11-12-1 (3, 11.5)
Consensus: 12-6
Nice week for Kevin as he went 3-0, tough week for Jason as he went 0-3. Ryan and John both limped in with a push each. Tennessee losing outright to Houston hurt all of us this week.
2) John 13-7-1 (0.5, 13.5)
3) Ryan 12-10-2 (0.5, 13)
4) Kevin 11-12-1 (3, 11.5)
Consensus: 12-6
Nice week for Kevin as he went 3-0, tough week for Jason as he went 0-3. Ryan and John both limped in with a push each. Tennessee losing outright to Houston hurt all of us this week.
Wednesday, December 10
Week 15 Spreads
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Chicago | -3 | New Orleans (JA) | Thurs | 8:15 |
| Green Bay | -2 | @Jacksonville | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Indianapolis | -17 | Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| Washington (RC) | -7 | @Cincinnati | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Atlanta (RC) | -3 | Tampa Bay | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Miami | -6.5 | San Francisco | Sun | 1:00 |
| Seattle | -3 | @St. Louis | Sun | 1:00 |
| @NY Jets | -7 | Buffalo | Sun | 1:00 |
| Tennessee (JA/JS/RC) | -3 | @Houston | Sun | 1:00 |
| San Diego (JS) | -5 | @Kansas City | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Arizona (JS) | -3 | Minnesota (KS) | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Baltimore | -2 | Pittsburgh | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Carolina (KS) | -7.5 | Denver | Sun | 4:15 |
| New England | -7 | @Oakland | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Dallas (KS) | -3 | NY Giants (JA) | Sun | 8:15 |
| @Philadelphia | -14 | Cleveland | Mon | 8:35 |
Picks for the Thursday game are due by 5p today; picks for everything else due by 5 on Friday.
Edit: I added the picks to the table, this should make for easier reference, and points out a couple of opposing picks for the week, and our only consolidated pick (Tennessee)
Tuesday, December 9
Standings after Week 14
1) Jason 14-6-1 (2, 14.5)
2) John 13-5-0 (2, 13)
3) Ryan 12-8-1 (2, 12.5)
4) Kevin 8-12-1 (1, 8.5)
Consensus: 12-5
Baltimore and Pittsburgh came out on top for us in the consensus picks, raising our total to 12-5 in games we agree on.
It will depend on how playoff scenarios shape up, but I suggest we sit out Week 17, as that week is notorious for playoff teams sitting their starters.
Also: I hope everyone saw the Antonio Bryant catch near the end of the game last night. If you haven't, do yourself a favor and look at a highlight reel somewhere. Easily one of the top plays of the NFL season.
2) John 13-5-0 (2, 13)
3) Ryan 12-8-1 (2, 12.5)
4) Kevin 8-12-1 (1, 8.5)
Consensus: 12-5
Baltimore and Pittsburgh came out on top for us in the consensus picks, raising our total to 12-5 in games we agree on.
It will depend on how playoff scenarios shape up, but I suggest we sit out Week 17, as that week is notorious for playoff teams sitting their starters.
Also: I hope everyone saw the Antonio Bryant catch near the end of the game last night. If you haven't, do yourself a favor and look at a highlight reel somewhere. Easily one of the top plays of the NFL season.
Monday, December 8
New look UNC defense
This is a bit late, but here's a great post from X's and O's of Basketball about UNC's interior defense in the Michigan State game. It has a couple of clips that highlight our collapsing defense and how we used it to force 21 turnovers against a strong Michigan State team.
Link: http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com/2008/12/uncs-interior-defense-keys-their-fast.html
The site also breaks down a myriad of NBA, Euro, College and WNBA (yes, it still exists) games for bits of strategy and coaching. If only people other than Jay Bilas or Len Elmore read this site, we might get better commentary for our games. I regularly check it to learn what analysts mean when they say 'flex' or 'swing' offense, fundamentally sound screen hedges and all those other terms that they love to drop but never explain.
Link: http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com/2008/12/uncs-interior-defense-keys-their-fast.html
The site also breaks down a myriad of NBA, Euro, College and WNBA (yes, it still exists) games for bits of strategy and coaching. If only people other than Jay Bilas or Len Elmore read this site, we might get better commentary for our games. I regularly check it to learn what analysts mean when they say 'flex' or 'swing' offense, fundamentally sound screen hedges and all those other terms that they love to drop but never explain.
Friday, December 5
Week 14 Spreads
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Indianapolis | -13.5 | Cincinnati | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Chicago | -6.5 | Jacksonville | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Green Bay | -6 | Houston | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Tennessee | -14 | Cleveland | Sun | 1:00 |
| Minnesota | -9.5 | @Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| @NY Giants | -7 | Philadelphia | Sun | 1:00 |
| @New Orleans | -3 | Atlanta | Sun | 1:00 |
| NY Jets | -4 | @San Francisco | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Buffalo | -1 | Miami | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Denver | -9 | Kansas City | Sun | 4:05 |
| New England | -4.5 | @Seattle | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Arizona | -14 | St. Louis | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Pittsburgh | -3 | Dallas | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Baltimore | -5 | Washington | Sun | 8:15 |
| @Carolina | -3 | Tampa Bay | Mon | 8:35 |
Picks are due by Saturday at midnight. I took over table duties from Ryan this week; please let me know if something looks off.
Edit: Ryan has requested an extra hour to make his picks. If you want to wait until 1 or so to make yours, Jason, you're welcome to do so.
Monday, December 1
Week 13 Standings
1) Jason 12-5-1 (2, 12.5)
2) Ryan 10-7-1 (2, 10.5)
3) John 11-4-0 (3, 11)
4) Kevin 7-10-1 (2, 7.5)
Concensus: 10-4
A good week on the whole, especially after the Arizona loss for Kevin and Jason on Turkey Day. After that the only loss was Indianapolis failing (by a half point) to cover against Cleveland.
The weeks posts will be up eventually, probably later than last week. There is only one Thursday game and the Chargers are giving 9.5 or 10 points at home, to the Raiders.
2) Ryan 10-7-1 (2, 10.5)
3) John 11-4-0 (3, 11)
4) Kevin 7-10-1 (2, 7.5)
Concensus: 10-4
A good week on the whole, especially after the Arizona loss for Kevin and Jason on Turkey Day. After that the only loss was Indianapolis failing (by a half point) to cover against Cleveland.
The weeks posts will be up eventually, probably later than last week. There is only one Thursday game and the Chargers are giving 9.5 or 10 points at home, to the Raiders.
Sunday, November 30
Heroic Heels
Ok, maybe my alliterative title is a bit of a reach, and many of you have likely already read the story, but in case you haven't here are my two favorite versions: Tar Heel Blue Version & Watered Down Blog Post Version.
Anyways, some closing Maui thoughts:
-Really showed why UNC misses Marcus Ginyard against Notre Dame, no one can put out a hot shooter like the Heels' best defensive stopper and Kyle McAlarney was just that, 8 3's in the second half, 10 total. The Heels hadn't faced a team with such a singular scoring threat until then
-The Heels seem to be taking the form of last year's team, which is to say no form at all. They've now won games with several different factors*: forcing turnovers (UK), offensive rebounding (ND), defensive rebounding (Oregon), and free throws (UCSB)
Don't have much else to add, John? Cason? thoughts?
Just to remind everyone, KenPom is up and running again, and with only 5 or 6 games played, its fun to check out the rankings to see who is off to a hot start and what makes a team rise to the top of the KenPom ratings.
Also, I'll be posting the phenomenal Hakeem Nicks, Tar Heel Play of the Year, catch as soon as I can find it on YouTube.
Week's Games:
UNC-A, Chapel Hill, 6:30 pm Sunday, Fox Sports
Michigan State, Ford Field (Detroit, MI), 9:15 pm Wednesday, ESPN
*factors as in Dean Oliver's Four Factors: Shooting, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers, and Free Throw Attempts. Basically what any and every basketball game ever played has boiled down to.
Anyways, some closing Maui thoughts:
-Really showed why UNC misses Marcus Ginyard against Notre Dame, no one can put out a hot shooter like the Heels' best defensive stopper and Kyle McAlarney was just that, 8 3's in the second half, 10 total. The Heels hadn't faced a team with such a singular scoring threat until then
-The Heels seem to be taking the form of last year's team, which is to say no form at all. They've now won games with several different factors*: forcing turnovers (UK), offensive rebounding (ND), defensive rebounding (Oregon), and free throws (UCSB)
Don't have much else to add, John? Cason? thoughts?
Just to remind everyone, KenPom is up and running again, and with only 5 or 6 games played, its fun to check out the rankings to see who is off to a hot start and what makes a team rise to the top of the KenPom ratings.
Also, I'll be posting the phenomenal Hakeem Nicks, Tar Heel Play of the Year, catch as soon as I can find it on YouTube.
Week's Games:
UNC-A, Chapel Hill, 6:30 pm Sunday, Fox Sports
Michigan State, Ford Field (Detroit, MI), 9:15 pm Wednesday, ESPN
*factors as in Dean Oliver's Four Factors: Shooting, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers, and Free Throw Attempts. Basically what any and every basketball game ever played has boiled down to.
Tuesday, November 25
Week 13 Spreads
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | -11 | @Detroit | Thurs | 12:30 |
| @Dallas | -13 | Seattle | Thurs | 4:15 |
| @Philadelphia | -3 | Arizona | Thurs | 8:15 |
| @NY Jets | -7.5 | Denver | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Buffalo | -7 | San Francisco | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Tampa Bay | -3.5 | New Orleans | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Green Bay | -3 | Carolina | Sun | 1:00 |
| NY Giants | -3.5 | @Washington | Sun | 1:00 |
| Miami | -8 | @St. Louis | Sun | 1:00 |
| Baltimore | -7 | @Cincinnati | Sun | 1:00 |
| Indianapolis | -4.5 | @Cleveland | Sun | 1:00 |
| @San Diego | -5.5 | Atlanta | Sun | 4:05 |
| @New England | -1 | Pittsburgh | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Oakland | -3 | Kansas City | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Minnesota | -3.5 | Chicago | Sun | 8:15 |
| @Houston | -3 | Jacksonville | Mon | 8:35 |
These are up soon enough that anyone wishing to call one (or all three) of these games will have to do so by 5pm on Wednesday. This will eliminate confusion created by three different start times, and any advantage to waiting closer to kickoff to get injury news.
Edit: Sorry, wrote the paragraph for the Turkey Day games only, all Sunday games due at the usual time
Week 12 Results
1) Jason 10-4-1 (1, 10.5)
2) Ryan 8-6-1 (1, 8.5)
3) John 8-4-0 (1, 8)
4) Kevin 5-9-1 (1, 5.5)
Everyone went 1-2 on the week as our picks did foretell a big Saints win last night. One point on the week for everyone and the overall standings don't change the points listing is (Current Week, Total).
Look for the Week 13 games early, since there are multiple Thursday games.
Meanwhile, that 'fro dude on Chaminade (Update: Joel Smith) learned you don't gesture to the crowd lest you piss off Danny Green to the tune of 26 points (7 rbs, 3 asts, 2 blks in 22 mins).
2) Ryan 8-6-1 (1, 8.5)
3) John 8-4-0 (1, 8)
4) Kevin 5-9-1 (1, 5.5)
Everyone went 1-2 on the week as our picks did foretell a big Saints win last night. One point on the week for everyone and the overall standings don't change the points listing is (Current Week, Total).
Look for the Week 13 games early, since there are multiple Thursday games.
Meanwhile, that 'fro dude on Chaminade (Update: Joel Smith) learned you don't gesture to the crowd lest you piss off Danny Green to the tune of 26 points (7 rbs, 3 asts, 2 blks in 22 mins).
Monday, November 24
Jimmy Connors shows more emotion at basketball game than tennis match
An interesting item for all tennis fans who read the blog (a.k.a. everybody): Jimmy Connors was arrested for noncompliance at the beginning of the UCSB game on Friday. He was involved in confrontation outside the arena and upon refusing to leave the spot, was arrested, booked and released.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/tennis/23sportsbriefs-CONNORSISARR_BRF.html
Since I'm sure it crossed your mind, John McEnroe views this as a challenge and will try to get arrested at the next random event he attends.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/tennis/23sportsbriefs-CONNORSISARR_BRF.html
Since I'm sure it crossed your mind, John McEnroe views this as a challenge and will try to get arrested at the next random event he attends.
Friday, November 21
UCSB Thoughts
-We've missed Hansbrough, but since the early first half the Heels have seemed to have trouble finding him and making him the focal point of the offense (or finding the open man off the double teams he creates)
-Ellington continues to get beaten when playing man-to-man defense, and this is only UCSB
-This is the most poorly officiated game of the year thus far, simply erratic from the officials (in both directions pretty equally), I feel really bad for the Big West if these are their officials
-Ed Davis has one or two good moves, but leaves the ball open to steals too often
-When the Gauchos went on their runs in the first half, you could see a direct correlation (deftly pointed out by the announcers) to UNC's offensive rebounding
-Bobby wasted 3 consecutive possessions with forced 3's or running floaters, very uncharacteristic of him
-Ty must be winded, or just having an off night, he's 5-9 from the line (83.5% last year, meaning the odds of a 5-9 stretch are around 3.8%)
-West coast games and 10 pm tip-offs are lame
Edit: Looks like we won't be playing Arizona anymore, sadly its just another sign of their declining program (H/T Fanhouse)
-Ellington continues to get beaten when playing man-to-man defense, and this is only UCSB
-This is the most poorly officiated game of the year thus far, simply erratic from the officials (in both directions pretty equally), I feel really bad for the Big West if these are their officials
-Ed Davis has one or two good moves, but leaves the ball open to steals too often
-When the Gauchos went on their runs in the first half, you could see a direct correlation (deftly pointed out by the announcers) to UNC's offensive rebounding
-Bobby wasted 3 consecutive possessions with forced 3's or running floaters, very uncharacteristic of him
-Ty must be winded, or just having an off night, he's 5-9 from the line (83.5% last year, meaning the odds of a 5-9 stretch are around 3.8%)
-West coast games and 10 pm tip-offs are lame
Edit: Looks like we won't be playing Arizona anymore, sadly its just another sign of their declining program (H/T Fanhouse)
Thursday, November 20
The Lowdown on the ACC Coastal Mess...
...or How I learned to stop hoping and realize UNC isn't going to the ACC Championship game.
So, there are several games to be played, but as of now, it looks like there are 5 teams all with 3 losses in the ACC Coastal (assuming GT holds on to its34-10 41-16 lead over Miami). Two of these teams play each other (UVA-VT), so the season will end with a maximum of 4 teams tied with 3 losses. Also, Georgia Tech is in the "clubhouse" as it were, playing the final week out of the ACC (@ Georgia). From the ACC's website here are the rules on deciding who plays in the ACC Championship game:
Three-Team Tie (or More):
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used.)
1. Combined head-to-head record among teams.
This one gives VA Tech/UVA winner the inside track, among the 4 teams with only 3 losses UNC and the VT/UVA winner are 2-1, GT and Miami are 1-2, also both VT and UVA beat UNC head to head (see #1 in Two-Team Tie below) sending either to the ACC Championship game
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competiton sic versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best
overall Conference (divisional and non divisional record) and
proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams
based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by draw.
Two-Team Tie:
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
I've deleted rules 2-8 because not only are they repeats of the above 2-8, but they also are moot, since all of the teams in consideration have played and none have played to a tie.
What it all means
Basically, only Virginia and Virginia Tech control their own destinies. If they both win this weekend, they play next weekend (in Blacksburg) for the Coastal Division and a ticket to the ACC Championship Game. If either team lose either game, UNC is in the driver's seat, assuming they can win out. So pull hard for the Blue Devils in Blacksburg this weekend.
Update: I found a situation that I overlooked. If VT wins the VT/UVA game, and UNC has lost a game to NC State or Duke, there would be 3 teams with 3 losses VT, Miami, GA Tech. Using tiebreak #1 these three teams are all 1-1 against themselves (VT beat GA Tech beat Miami beat VT...). Then you would move to tiebreak #2, and using that rule, since VT would have more Coastal Division wins than the other two teams (they beat UNC while both GA Tech and Miami lost to UNC) they would still move on.
So, there are several games to be played, but as of now, it looks like there are 5 teams all with 3 losses in the ACC Coastal (assuming GT holds on to its
Three-Team Tie (or More):
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used.)
1. Combined head-to-head record among teams.
This one gives VA Tech/UVA winner the inside track, among the 4 teams with only 3 losses UNC and the VT/UVA winner are 2-1, GT and Miami are 1-2, also both VT and UVA beat UNC head to head (see #1 in Two-Team Tie below) sending either to the ACC Championship game
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competiton sic versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best
overall Conference (divisional and non divisional record) and
proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams
based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by draw.
Two-Team Tie:
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
I've deleted rules 2-8 because not only are they repeats of the above 2-8, but they also are moot, since all of the teams in consideration have played and none have played to a tie.
What it all means
Basically, only Virginia and Virginia Tech control their own destinies. If they both win this weekend, they play next weekend (in Blacksburg) for the Coastal Division and a ticket to the ACC Championship Game. If either team lose either game, UNC is in the driver's seat, assuming they can win out. So pull hard for the Blue Devils in Blacksburg this weekend.
Update: I found a situation that I overlooked. If VT wins the VT/UVA game, and UNC has lost a game to NC State or Duke, there would be 3 teams with 3 losses VT, Miami, GA Tech. Using tiebreak #1 these three teams are all 1-1 against themselves (VT beat GA Tech beat Miami beat VT...). Then you would move to tiebreak #2, and using that rule, since VT would have more Coastal Division wins than the other two teams (they beat UNC while both GA Tech and Miami lost to UNC) they would still move on.
Wednesday, November 19
Week 12 Lines
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Pittsburgh | -10.5 | Cincinnati | Thurs | 8:15 |
| @Cleveland | -3 | Houston | Sun | 1:00 |
| Buffalo | -3 | @Kansas City | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Tennessee | -5.5 | NY Jets | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Miami | -1.5 | New England | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Dallas | -10 | San Francisco | Sun | 1:00 |
| Tampa Bay | -8 | @Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Baltimore | -1 | Philadelphia | Sun | 1:00 |
| Chicago | -8 | @St. Louis | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Jacksonville | -2 | Minnesota | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Denver | -9.5 | Oakland | Sun | 4:05 |
| @Atlanta | -1 | Carolina | Sun | 4:15 |
| Washington | -3.5 | @Seattle | Sun | 4:15 |
| NY Giants | -3 | @Arizona | Sun | 4:15 |
| @San Diego | -3 | Indianapolis | Sun | 8:15 |
| @New Orleans | -2.5 | Green Bay | Mon | 8:35 |
As usual calling that game will need to be done by kickoff of 5:00 pm Friday, whichever comes first
Ouch
North Carolina forward Zeller out for the season
This is just my opinion, but I don't think the Kentucky player who fouled Zeller should be held at fault for the wrist. Byron and I both agreed that it was questionable whether Zeller was actually fouled in the first place, and it didn't appear from watching the replays that the Kentucky player caused him to land funny on his wrist. Zeller was going at top speed down the floor, drew enough contact for him to miss the dunk (but certainly not enough to be an intentional foul), and thus was coming down too quickly to be able to brace his fall properly. Again, just my thoughts.
Update: From SI "Zeller had surgery Wednesday to repair fractures in two places, a recovery that normally would take 12 to 16 weeks." Also, thanks for the info from Byron, looks he is opting for surgery and that it is a pretty severe break. Just an FYI: 16 weeks is March 11th but the Heels may take the medical red-shirt route.
This is just my opinion, but I don't think the Kentucky player who fouled Zeller should be held at fault for the wrist. Byron and I both agreed that it was questionable whether Zeller was actually fouled in the first place, and it didn't appear from watching the replays that the Kentucky player caused him to land funny on his wrist. Zeller was going at top speed down the floor, drew enough contact for him to miss the dunk (but certainly not enough to be an intentional foul), and thus was coming down too quickly to be able to brace his fall properly. Again, just my thoughts.
Update: From SI "Zeller had surgery Wednesday to repair fractures in two places, a recovery that normally would take 12 to 16 weeks." Also, thanks for the info from Byron, looks he is opting for surgery and that it is a pretty severe break. Just an FYI: 16 weeks is March 11th but the Heels may take the medical red-shirt route.
Monday, November 17
Week 11 Standings
Briefly, a standings update:
1) Jason 9-2-1 (3, 9.5)
2) Ryan 7-4-1 (2, 7.5)
3) John 7-2-0 (1, 7)
4) Kevin 4-7-1 (0, 4.5)
Sorry, Kevin
Collective: 7-1-0
1) Jason 9-2-1 (3, 9.5)
2) Ryan 7-4-1 (2, 7.5)
3) John 7-2-0 (1, 7)
4) Kevin 4-7-1 (0, 4.5)
Sorry, Kevin
Collective: 7-1-0
Sunday, November 16
UNC-Penn Musings
Primarily, I just want to emphasize the volume of possessions that is currently missing from UNC's offense. I feel comfortable using last season's stats, because the Heels starting five is unchanged from last season.
Hansbrough 81% minutes 27% possessions = 22% of total off possessions
Ginyard 70% minutes 14% possessions = 10% of total off possessions
That's nearly one third of the offense, not just when the starting five were on the floor, but for the entire game. Now taking that into consideration, am I terribly concerned we settled for jump shots all game? No.
All things considered the freshmen looked good. They made some silly mistakes that should be eliminated by mid-December, such as Zeller missing a cut Lawson expected him to make and Ed Davis throwing away fast break outlet pass. On the plus side, Ed Davis is a monster on the glass (see below), Zeller has some slick range on his jumper, and I really like Larry Drew's defensive intensity against dribble penetration (were you watching Wayne?). Some things to look out for in both the short and long term, does Zeller's start Saturday mean he'll be the first big man off the bench (behind Danny of course)? I was under the assumption that Ed Davis would fill that role, but it could have been that Coach Williams thinks that Zeller's strengths (jumper with range, average rebounding) compliment Thompson better than Davis' do. Also, watch Larry Drew's progression. He is in a position similar to that of Quentin Thomas, a freshman (QT/Drew) with an established starter ahead of him (Felton/Lawson) and a star recruit nipping at his heels (Lawson/Dexter Strickland). Will Drew be a contributor this season and a starter in the future, or will he simply warm the seat through next December when Strickland assumes the mantle of the next "faster with the ball" Roy Williams point guard?
Negatives
Ok, we'll go with the negatives first. Penn shot the ball way too well, nearly 50% eFG is too high for a team that needs to up the defense to win more games. Hopefully Marcus Ginyard can help out in this department, along with better teamwork as the year progresses. Also, way way way way too many threes. The team took an average of 22% of its field goals from behind the arc last year, against Penn that number ballooned to 36%. Hopefully the return of Hansbrough will help to refocus the offense inside the paint, where it belongs.
Positives
Without Tyler, the offensive rebounding did not suffer. The Heels rebounded 37% of their own misses a notch below the 42% average. Tyler returning should improve that number, both in talent level, and ideally in taking more inside shots and shooting a better percentage from the field. Helping in the cause was Ed Davis, with 4 offensive rebounds (out of 14 total boards) in only 22 minutes, a monstrous 25 OR%. Also, though jump shots and threes were the preferred method of scoring, they did come as a result of good ball movement (or friendly score keeping). 78% of the made field goals were assisted, up from only 50% last year. Lastly, Danny Green has picked up right where he left off filling the stat sheet from corner to corner: 5-7 FG, 2-4 3FG, 12 Pts, 4 Asts, 3 Stls, 4 Rbs (1 OR), and 0 TO's. Don't worry Danny, the blocks will come.
Next Up: UK, @Chapel Hill, Tues Nov 18, 9:00 pm, ESPN
Liveblog Cason?
Despite John's being logged in to my computer during the Panthers game, Ryan was the author of this post, sheesh
Hansbrough 81% minutes 27% possessions = 22% of total off possessions
Ginyard 70% minutes 14% possessions = 10% of total off possessions
That's nearly one third of the offense, not just when the starting five were on the floor, but for the entire game. Now taking that into consideration, am I terribly concerned we settled for jump shots all game? No.
All things considered the freshmen looked good. They made some silly mistakes that should be eliminated by mid-December, such as Zeller missing a cut Lawson expected him to make and Ed Davis throwing away fast break outlet pass. On the plus side, Ed Davis is a monster on the glass (see below), Zeller has some slick range on his jumper, and I really like Larry Drew's defensive intensity against dribble penetration (were you watching Wayne?). Some things to look out for in both the short and long term, does Zeller's start Saturday mean he'll be the first big man off the bench (behind Danny of course)? I was under the assumption that Ed Davis would fill that role, but it could have been that Coach Williams thinks that Zeller's strengths (jumper with range, average rebounding) compliment Thompson better than Davis' do. Also, watch Larry Drew's progression. He is in a position similar to that of Quentin Thomas, a freshman (QT/Drew) with an established starter ahead of him (Felton/Lawson) and a star recruit nipping at his heels (Lawson/Dexter Strickland). Will Drew be a contributor this season and a starter in the future, or will he simply warm the seat through next December when Strickland assumes the mantle of the next "faster with the ball" Roy Williams point guard?
Negatives
Ok, we'll go with the negatives first. Penn shot the ball way too well, nearly 50% eFG is too high for a team that needs to up the defense to win more games. Hopefully Marcus Ginyard can help out in this department, along with better teamwork as the year progresses. Also, way way way way too many threes. The team took an average of 22% of its field goals from behind the arc last year, against Penn that number ballooned to 36%. Hopefully the return of Hansbrough will help to refocus the offense inside the paint, where it belongs.
Positives
Without Tyler, the offensive rebounding did not suffer. The Heels rebounded 37% of their own misses a notch below the 42% average. Tyler returning should improve that number, both in talent level, and ideally in taking more inside shots and shooting a better percentage from the field. Helping in the cause was Ed Davis, with 4 offensive rebounds (out of 14 total boards) in only 22 minutes, a monstrous 25 OR%. Also, though jump shots and threes were the preferred method of scoring, they did come as a result of good ball movement (or friendly score keeping). 78% of the made field goals were assisted, up from only 50% last year. Lastly, Danny Green has picked up right where he left off filling the stat sheet from corner to corner: 5-7 FG, 2-4 3FG, 12 Pts, 4 Asts, 3 Stls, 4 Rbs (1 OR), and 0 TO's. Don't worry Danny, the blocks will come.
Next Up: UK, @Chapel Hill, Tues Nov 18, 9:00 pm, ESPN
Liveblog Cason?
Despite John's being logged in to my computer during the Panthers game, Ryan was the author of this post, sheesh
Wednesday, November 12
Week 11 Spreads
Week 11 means, No More Bye Weeks!!!! We've got a full slate of 16 games to choose from this week, and a Thursday game to boot. As usual, a Thursday pick should be in by game time, the rest can wait until 5:00 Friday:
Ooooooh, a Table!!!! (You better appreciate it...)
After the4 pm 8 pm Sunday games:
Jason 3-0
Ryan 2-1
John 1-2
Kevin 0-3
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Day | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @New England | -3.5 | NY Jets | Thurs | 8:15 |
| @Atlanta | -6 | Denver | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Miami | -10.5 | Oakland | Sun | 1:00 |
| @NY Giants | -6.5 | Baltimore | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Indianapolis | -8 | Houston | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Green Bay | -4 | Chicago | Sun | 1:00 |
| Philadelphia | -9 | @Cincinnati | Sun | 1:00 |
| New Orleans | -5.5 | @Kansas City | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Carolina | -14.5 | Detroit | Sun | 1:00 |
| @Tampa Bay | -3.5 | Minnesota | Sun | 1:00 |
| @San Francisco | -6 | St. Louis | Sun | 4:05 |
| Arizona | -3 | @Seattle | Sun | 4:05 |
| Tennessee | -3 | @Jacksonville | Sun | 4:15 |
| @Pittsburgh | -4 | San Diego | Sun | 4:15 |
| Dallas | -1.5 | @Washington | Sun | 8:15 |
| @Buffalo | -5.5 | Cleveland | Mon | 8:35 |
Ooooooh, a Table!!!! (You better appreciate it...)
After the
Jason 3-0
Ryan 2-1
John 1-2
Kevin 0-3
Sunday, November 9
Sunday Pick Update
Here are the standings after Sunday's games, Kevin is still waiting on the results of tomorrow's Arizona/SanFran contest (he picked Arizona giving 9.5 points). Carolina made us sweat out its 17-6 victory, while the Ravens coasted to an easy victory for everyone (hey Vegas, get it together, the Ravens are a good football team). The Titans were also a winner, while the Falcons more than held up to their 1 point line.
1) Jason 6-2-1 (3, 6.5)
2) John 6-0-0 (3, 6)
3) Ryan 5-3-1 (3, 5.5)
4) Kevin 4-4-1 (1, 4.5)
I'll adjust Kevin's totals tomorrow, a correct pick would bring him into a tie for 3rd. The Cardinals got the win, but failed to cover the 9.5 point spread (29-24). Next week's lines should be up some time on Wednesday.
Edit: Just an FYI, but as a group we're 5-1-0 on picks more than one of us agree on (with none of us dissenting), of that Baltimore has been a big boost, 2-0-0 in 3 weeks.
1) Jason 6-2-1 (3, 6.5)
2) John 6-0-0 (3, 6)
3) Ryan 5-3-1 (3, 5.5)
4) Kevin 4-4-1 (1, 4.5)
Edit: Just an FYI, but as a group we're 5-1-0 on picks more than one of us agree on (with none of us dissenting), of that Baltimore has been a big boost, 2-0-0 in 3 weeks.
Lee Pace is the man
As I noted in my last post, I intended to email the Extra Points mailbag to find out the last time we wore navy jerseys at home. I emailed him at 12:57 with my question, and he just answered my question at 2:15. Awesome turnaround time. I have no idea if my question will make it onto the Mailbag article he writes weekly, but that's still beyond excellent response time. I've spent thousands at Marriotts and never gotten feedback to my questions this quickly, even when I email the manager.
Lee Pace, consider this your shoutout. You earned it. I would also encourage anyone to email Mr Pace if you have any obscure questions about our football program.
PS - Here's the contents of my email:
Lee,
When was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina Blue jerseys at home like on Saturday? Have we worn navy or white at home for some special reason before?
Cason Dwyer, ‘07
Madison, WI
Response:
We haven't worn navy jerseys home or away since the final game of the 1959 season.
LP
It looks like we broke out the navy jerseys for the first time in almost 50 years. Good call, Butch.
Lee Pace, consider this your shoutout. You earned it. I would also encourage anyone to email Mr Pace if you have any obscure questions about our football program.
PS - Here's the contents of my email:
Lee,
When was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina Blue jerseys at home like on Saturday? Have we worn navy or white at home for some special reason before?
Cason Dwyer, ‘07
Madison, WI
Response:
We haven't worn navy jerseys home or away since the final game of the 1959 season.
LP
It looks like we broke out the navy jerseys for the first time in almost 50 years. Good call, Butch.
Saturday, November 8
Ramblin Wreck Wrap
Strong win for the Heels today over Ga Tech, 28-7. Once again, we were outgained yet won comfortably because our opponents insist upon turning the ball over. My brother from a different mother, Jonathan Dwyer, rushed for 157 yards. However, over half of the yards came from an 85 yd touchdown run late in the 4th quarter.
Cam Sexton continues to do everything he can to retain his job as game manager by throwing for a piddly 100 yds and a not-so-piddly 2 TDs. I'm sure that Ga Tech put about 5 guys on Hakeem Nicks after seeing what happened against BC so I will let it slide.
Also, for our readers who are on the Thorpe or Bednarik award selection committees, Trimane Goddard has 5 interceptions so far this season.
One question I have is why were we wearing our road unis at home today. Tech wore white, so what gives with the navy jerseys?
Edit: Trimane Goddard has 6 interceptions this season. Bednarik and Thorpe voters, please take note. I also submitting a mailbag question for Adam Lucas: when was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina blue jerseys at home?
Cam Sexton continues to do everything he can to retain his job as game manager by throwing for a piddly 100 yds and a not-so-piddly 2 TDs. I'm sure that Ga Tech put about 5 guys on Hakeem Nicks after seeing what happened against BC so I will let it slide.
Also, for our readers who are on the Thorpe or Bednarik award selection committees, Trimane Goddard has 5 interceptions so far this season.
One question I have is why were we wearing our road unis at home today. Tech wore white, so what gives with the navy jerseys?
Edit: Trimane Goddard has 6 interceptions this season. Bednarik and Thorpe voters, please take note. I also submitting a mailbag question for Adam Lucas: when was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina blue jerseys at home?
Wednesday, November 5
Week 10 Lines
(sans Indy-Pitt)
Favorite Line Underdog
Jacksonville -6.5 @Detroit
Tennessee -3 @Chicago
@New England -4 Buffalo
@Atlanta -1 New Orleans
@NY Jets -8 St. Louis
@Miami -9 Seattle
@Minnesota -2.5 Green Bay
Carolina -9 @Oakland
@San Diego -15 Kansas City
@Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
Baltimore PK @Houston
@Arizona -9.5 San Francisco
Like I said, I'll post Indy-Pitt when at least 3 casinos set their line for the game, but for estimation I'd guess -3 or -4 Pittsburgh
Favorite Line Underdog
Jacksonville -6.5 @Detroit
Tennessee -3 @Chicago
@New England -4 Buffalo
@Atlanta -1 New Orleans
@NY Jets -8 St. Louis
@Miami -9 Seattle
@Minnesota -2.5 Green Bay
Carolina -9 @Oakland
@San Diego -15 Kansas City
@Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
Baltimore PK @Houston
@Arizona -9.5 San Francisco
Like I said, I'll post Indy-Pitt when at least 3 casinos set their line for the game, but for estimation I'd guess -3 or -4 Pittsburgh
Thursday Game!
Just to let everyone know, there is a Thursday game this week, here is the line:
@Cleveland -3 Denver
Most of the lines are up, I'll post them soon, but I'd like to wait to see what Indy-Pittsburgh looks like (none of the casinos are opening it for betting until Big Ben's status is known). I'd venture a guess that if Big Ben goes, the Steelers (at home) will be favored by 4.
If you want to call this game, post by kickoff, if you're curious about the rest of the lines, I usually average these.
@Cleveland -3 Denver
Most of the lines are up, I'll post them soon, but I'd like to wait to see what Indy-Pittsburgh looks like (none of the casinos are opening it for betting until Big Ben's status is known). I'd venture a guess that if Big Ben goes, the Steelers (at home) will be favored by 4.
If you want to call this game, post by kickoff, if you're curious about the rest of the lines, I usually average these.
Sunday, November 2
What a difference a week makes
With the added competition on board, everyone stepped up their game. 3 of us nailed our 3 team parlays for perfect 3-0 records, while I missed out on the GB/Tenn game (damn Titans, 7-0 ATS, WTF), leaving myself at 2-1 on the week:
1t) Jason 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
1t) Kevin 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
3) John 3-0-0 (3 pts)
4) Ryan 2-3-1 (2.5 pts)
Winning bets included Philly, Baltimore (u), Arizona, Miami (u), Minny, NY Jets (u), and Green Bay (u)
1t) Jason 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
1t) Kevin 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
3) John 3-0-0 (3 pts)
4) Ryan 2-3-1 (2.5 pts)
Winning bets included Philly, Baltimore (u), Arizona, Miami (u), Minny, NY Jets (u), and Green Bay (u)
Wednesday, October 29
Week 9 Lines
Via the comments from week 8, we all ended up at 0-2-1, losing bets were placed on Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and San Fran while we all pushed the New England/St Louis game (but with different bets).
Favorite Line Underdog
@Minnesota -4.5 Houston
Jacksonville -7.5 @Cincinnati
Tampa Bay -8 @Kansas City
@Cleveland -2 Baltimore
@Buffalo -5.5 NY Jets
Arizona -3 @St. Louis
@Chicago -13 Detroit
@Tennessee -5.5 Green Bay
@Denver -3 Miami
Atlanta -3 @Oakland
@NY Giants -8 Dallas
Philadelphia -7 @Seattle
@Indy -5.5 New England
@Washington -2 Pittsburgh
Favorite Line Underdog
@Minnesota -4.5 Houston
Jacksonville -7.5 @Cincinnati
Tampa Bay -8 @Kansas City
@Cleveland -2 Baltimore
@Buffalo -5.5 NY Jets
Arizona -3 @St. Louis
@Chicago -13 Detroit
@Tennessee -5.5 Green Bay
@Denver -3 Miami
Atlanta -3 @Oakland
@NY Giants -8 Dallas
Philadelphia -7 @Seattle
@Indy -5.5 New England
@Washington -2 Pittsburgh
Monday, October 27
In response to Ryan
There hasn't been much talk of the latest episode of 'As the Favre Turns.' There's been no mention of it around the water cooler here at work. I recall it was a topic on local sports talk radio, but the hosts didn't really get angry after they thought about it.
Remember, it's Favre talking THE LIONS about the Packers playbook, not the Bears or Vikings. The hosts felt that Brett was just trying to give the Lions a chance the next time around. The first time these two played, in Detroit, the Packers scored 3 TDs in like 2 seconds to put a game that was close out of reach. I'll bet Brett just felt sorry for the Lions.
People are talking about how they are relieved that the Badgers finally won a Big 10 game on Saturday. Things were starting to look ugly for Bucky before they got their act together against the Fightin' Zooks.
In other news, it snowed yesterday. The Farmer's Almanac predicts 140 in. of snow for us. I can't wait.
Remember, it's Favre talking THE LIONS about the Packers playbook, not the Bears or Vikings. The hosts felt that Brett was just trying to give the Lions a chance the next time around. The first time these two played, in Detroit, the Packers scored 3 TDs in like 2 seconds to put a game that was close out of reach. I'll bet Brett just felt sorry for the Lions.
People are talking about how they are relieved that the Badgers finally won a Big 10 game on Saturday. Things were starting to look ugly for Bucky before they got their act together against the Fightin' Zooks.
In other news, it snowed yesterday. The Farmer's Almanac predicts 140 in. of snow for us. I can't wait.
Friday, October 24
Week 8 Lines
Oakland
Baltimore -7
San Diego -3
New Orleans
Kansas City
New York Jets -13.5
Buffalo -1.5
Miami
Tampa
Dallas -2.5
Atlanta
Philadelphia -9
St Louis
NE -7
Arizona
Carolina -4
Washington -7.5
Detroit
Cleveland
Jacksonville -7
New York Giants
Pittsburgh -3
Seattle
SF -5
Cincy
Houston -9.5
Indy
Tennessee -4
Baltimore -7
San Diego -3
New Orleans
Kansas City
New York Jets -13.5
Buffalo -1.5
Miami
Tampa
Dallas -2.5
Atlanta
Philadelphia -9
St Louis
NE -7
Arizona
Carolina -4
Washington -7.5
Detroit
Cleveland
Jacksonville -7
New York Giants
Pittsburgh -3
Seattle
SF -5
Cincy
Houston -9.5
Indy
Tennessee -4
Wednesday, October 22
Taking the Temperature of Wisconsin
Not sure if you've read this yet. Basically it seems to be the wrapping up of a strange story decidedly not dominating the sports news cycle (thanks, ESPN), about Brett Favre talking to Lions staff about preparing for playing the Packers in week 2. Brett initially denied the story, ESPN refused to run it because they heard it was bogus (and they have a huge man-crush on Brett Farve, not to mention an interest in not seeing his image tarnished). My main question for Cason is what does it feel like in Packer-town? I don't know any huge Packer fans, but I can't think of a player more automatically linked to a team over the past 15+ years than Favre is to the Packers, so its hard for me to find an equivalent breech of sports ethics (if only for the magnitude of Favre/Packers) than this. Is everyone up in arms, or is it all quiet on the western front (of Lake Michigan)?
Wednesday, October 15
UNC-Texas?
Just saw this on Fanhouse and thought I'd pass it along. Apparently UNC officials are in talks with Jerry Jones' people to schedule a college basketball game for the 2009-2010 season in the new Cowboys stadium. While this does symbolize moving more and more towards stupid non-basketball arenas hosting college basketball games, placing money making ahead of fan experience, something I'm obviously not happy about, it also shows that we might be going to play Texas in a semi-away game next year, and a harder schedule is something I'm always excited about.
Edit: I have since read that a deal has been struck, UNC will go to the newTexas Stadium Jerry Jones Coliseum to play Texas, with Texas returning the favor for a semi-away game in Greensboro for 2010-2011.
Edit: I have since read that a deal has been struck, UNC will go to the new
Monday, October 13
NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Brandon Tate is out for the year with a torn ACL and MCL. Hopefully he will recover from this week's upcoming surgery in time for NFL draft evaluations. This is a bad break for the Heels now that we are finding ourselves on national TV more often.
I know Hakeem Nicks (Brad Nessler, please note that it's 'Nicks' and not 'Hicks') can pick up the slack, but Brooks Foster needs to be ready to hold onto the ball. You too, Cooter. I have not received any information about our TE, Zach Pinalto, who was injured Saturday.
Link: http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/101308aad.html
I know Hakeem Nicks (Brad Nessler, please note that it's 'Nicks' and not 'Hicks') can pick up the slack, but Brooks Foster needs to be ready to hold onto the ball. You too, Cooter. I have not received any information about our TE, Zach Pinalto, who was injured Saturday.
Link: http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/101308aad.html
Saturday, October 11
Friday, September 5
What do Rashad McCants and Reggie Bush have in common?
So, here it is, the days between the Thursday night opening game and the rest of the NFL's smorgasbord of Sunday games. Its sorta like the brief interlude of breakfast on Christmas morning, right after you've already gone through your stocking, but before you settle in to open your wrapped presents and visit the relatives. Anyways, I'm going to use this brief interlude to introduce our new NFL game here at tfsb. So, here are the rules (I think, at least, assuming Cason and John buy in).
Now, onto the actual title of the post, The Big Lead is reporting some news about our old friend Rashad McCants is appearing at public events with one of the Kardashian sisters (Khloe, in case you're keeping track). Maybe he should be focused on upholding the UNC legacy in the pros or working hard to make sure he gets the best of his first post-rookie FA deal. Nah, shouldn't be an issue, you can just come back here and hang out with Reyshawn (saw him at Target last weekend).
- Every week we'll each pick 1 RB, 1 WR, and 1 QB
- For each player that gain or throw for more than 100/300 yards, we'll earn a point
- The first 3 weeks we'll rotate the picking order
- From there we'll award the spots in inverse order of standings (Or maybe rotate through even turns with a sympathy "last place" week thrown in?)
- Each person can only pick any given player twice (thrice?) during the season
Now, onto the actual title of the post, The Big Lead is reporting some news about our old friend Rashad McCants is appearing at public events with one of the Kardashian sisters (Khloe, in case you're keeping track). Maybe he should be focused on upholding the UNC legacy in the pros or working hard to make sure he gets the best of his first post-rookie FA deal. Nah, shouldn't be an issue, you can just come back here and hang out with Reyshawn (saw him at Target last weekend).
Tuesday, August 26
Heels' 08-09 Schedule Announced
Looks like I'll be in the Windy City on Dec 20th. Unfortunately, Detroit is too far to drive for the MSU game, but hopefully we'll play two more games there this coming season....
2008-2009 Mens's Basketball Schedule:
http://northcarolina.scout.com/3/bbschedule.html
2008-2009 Mens's Basketball Schedule:
http://northcarolina.scout.com/3/bbschedule.html
Thursday, August 21
Hello? Is this thing on?
Wow, how loyal of google/blogspot to keep the blog up and running while John and I were slumbering through the dog days of August and the booooring second half of the baseball season. The sports scene is picking up again, and its time to put the blog back in its regular rotation. The return of NFL action and college basketball being just around the corner should have John and I posting at near '06 levels (ah, the blog honeymoon years). Keeping up the analogy, John and I have decided to add a new "partner" to the mix, we welcome one time guest poster and long time friend Cason Dwyer to the fold. Cason will help us nail down the inside scoop on how the Packers look without Brett Favre for the first time since Bush was in office I was in Kindergarten. We also need to make a decision about what NFL contest we'd like to pursue this year. Pick 'em is so 2 years ago, I'm thinking we'll mix it up with one of those "pick the 100 yd rusher/reciever" games like they play on the Sunday NFL pregame shows (but a good showing for Pick 'em in the comments would go a long way to granting it a stay of execution for the season).
Ok, enough blabbering, the real motive for my posting (other than to kickoff the blog season) is to link to the great AA piece:
NBC has decided to do just that, hoping to glean what ratings they can from the greatest Olympian of all time they've picked up several swimming world and US championships. Will these events be even half as popular as the Olympics? My money's on no, but only time will tell, you never know how many "Phelps Phans" there are out there.
On another note, if you enjoy long conversations about the arbitrary rules and negotiations that surround MLB's mid-June draft, be sure to read this interview with Nationals' GM Jim Bowden about the attempted signing of #9 overall pick Aaron Crow (SP Missouri).
Edit: As of today's date (August 21st) all Tar Heel early entrants to the NBA Draft have elected to return to school. The Heels only underclassman loss is Alex Stepheson who is transferring to USC to be closer to his family and ailing father. We regret the error and the lack of immediate updated coverage and hope none of our loyal readers were confused (or miffed).
Ok, enough blabbering, the real motive for my posting (other than to kickoff the blog season) is to link to the great AA piece:
"grab onto those giant condor-likewingsarms and ride....RIDE....young Michael Phelps to ratings gold, NBC!"
NBC has decided to do just that, hoping to glean what ratings they can from the greatest Olympian of all time they've picked up several swimming world and US championships. Will these events be even half as popular as the Olympics? My money's on no, but only time will tell, you never know how many "Phelps Phans" there are out there.
On another note, if you enjoy long conversations about the arbitrary rules and negotiations that surround MLB's mid-June draft, be sure to read this interview with Nationals' GM Jim Bowden about the attempted signing of #9 overall pick Aaron Crow (SP Missouri).
Edit: As of today's date (August 21st) all Tar Heel early entrants to the NBA Draft have elected to return to school. The Heels only underclassman loss is Alex Stepheson who is transferring to USC to be closer to his family and ailing father. We regret the error and the lack of immediate updated coverage and hope none of our loyal readers were confused (or miffed).
Saturday, June 14
Reassessing the Heels
Alright, a lot has happened since we last spoke, and we mainly have Tywon Lawson to thank for that, though to be fair Danny Green hasn't operated completely within his character either. So, to take a look at the situations of the 3 draft declared Heels right at the cusp of the June 16th deadline.
Ty Lawson - Gone, see you later, it was nice knowing you, kiss him goodbye. Ty's stock, as always, was the highest of the three, and it looks as if he has the top 20 spot he said he'd stay in the draft for. On top of that, even if he slips, the teams rumored to be targeting him are New Orleans and San Antonio, which both make for a pretty good gig.
Wayne Ellington - Wayne's stock is, reportedly, borderline first round. However, he doesn't appear to be picked anywhere in the draft at either nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com. I have to assume they're thinking Wayne knows he isn't guaranteed a first round choice (thus a contract), and will be headed back to school. That is what I fully expect Wayne to do, especially given his financial situation.
Danny Green - Danny is the wild card of the bunch. He's got Wayne's draft stock (or worse) but seems to have Ty's mentality for getting out of school ASAP. This creates a problem, as if he stays in the draft he'll likely end up floating around the NBDL or Europe. Not that there is anything wrong with that, many productive college players end up in one of those two venues, however, given the shot he'd have at another Final Four run, I don't know why he'd pass that up, other than the financial need of his family. I really can't say here, I could see him staying in the draft, but it would seem to be better for all parties if he stayed all four years.
Now, lets take a moment to look at the 08-09 Heels:
PG Frasor
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson
Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis,F Alex Stepheson
Not quite the prohibitive title favorites everyone was crowning after the Final Four, but definitely a deep, talented, experienced squad who is well-poised to defend their ACC title. The interesting bit is, would potentially returning Danny Green see the starting lineup?
Ty Lawson - Gone, see you later, it was nice knowing you, kiss him goodbye. Ty's stock, as always, was the highest of the three, and it looks as if he has the top 20 spot he said he'd stay in the draft for. On top of that, even if he slips, the teams rumored to be targeting him are New Orleans and San Antonio, which both make for a pretty good gig.
Wayne Ellington - Wayne's stock is, reportedly, borderline first round. However, he doesn't appear to be picked anywhere in the draft at either nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com. I have to assume they're thinking Wayne knows he isn't guaranteed a first round choice (thus a contract), and will be headed back to school. That is what I fully expect Wayne to do, especially given his financial situation.
Danny Green - Danny is the wild card of the bunch. He's got Wayne's draft stock (or worse) but seems to have Ty's mentality for getting out of school ASAP. This creates a problem, as if he stays in the draft he'll likely end up floating around the NBDL or Europe. Not that there is anything wrong with that, many productive college players end up in one of those two venues, however, given the shot he'd have at another Final Four run, I don't know why he'd pass that up, other than the financial need of his family. I really can't say here, I could see him staying in the draft, but it would seem to be better for all parties if he stayed all four years.
Now, lets take a moment to look at the 08-09 Heels:
PG Frasor
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson
Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis,
Not quite the prohibitive title favorites everyone was crowning after the Final Four, but definitely a deep, talented, experienced squad who is well-poised to defend their ACC title. The interesting bit is, would potentially returning Danny Green see the starting lineup?
Friday, April 25
Wow
The seemingly least likely scenario has come true, Ellington and Lawson will test the waters, Tyler is here to stay.
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/749667.html
Projected UNC Lineup:
PG Frasor
SG Ginyard
SF Green
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson
Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Alex Stepheson, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis
Obviously Lawson/Ellington would resume their posts at the guard spots were they to return. Looks like Will Graves is going to have to step it up if not, as the Heels' backcourt depth is suddenly nonexistent.
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/749667.html
Projected UNC Lineup:
PG Frasor
SG Ginyard
SF Green
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson
Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Alex Stepheson, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis
Obviously Lawson/Ellington would resume their posts at the guard spots were they to return. Looks like Will Graves is going to have to step it up if not, as the Heels' backcourt depth is suddenly nonexistent.
Thursday, April 24
Rumor Mongering
I don't know how many people actually read the blog this time of year, what with the NFL off-season and NCAA quieting down, but this is from AOL Fanhouse:
Tyler Hansbrough to enter NBA Draft
He's apparently not going to hire an agent, so he could come back, but just wants to go to the camps and see if he can help his draft stock any. I'd say now (per DraftExpress and NBADraft.net) that he's in the mid-20's. I'd guess that if he plays his way into the lottery, he'd stay, but anything short of that he'll return as he could just go pro as a senior with the same results. This is easily the smart move, since you can "test the waters" once and come back, and he isn't testing the waters next year, its for real. Also, apparently Lawson is coming back as well. He's got a similar draft position to Tyler's, around 20, and has a myriad of PGs ahead of him. If he doesn't play any better next year he'll improve his stock just by the lack of PG's in the draft.
Projected UNC Lineup:
PG Lawson
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Stepheson (Hansbrough?)
C Thompson
Bench: G Bobby Frasor, G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis
Tyler Hansbrough to enter NBA Draft
He's apparently not going to hire an agent, so he could come back, but just wants to go to the camps and see if he can help his draft stock any. I'd say now (per DraftExpress and NBADraft.net) that he's in the mid-20's. I'd guess that if he plays his way into the lottery, he'd stay, but anything short of that he'll return as he could just go pro as a senior with the same results. This is easily the smart move, since you can "test the waters" once and come back, and he isn't testing the waters next year, its for real. Also, apparently Lawson is coming back as well. He's got a similar draft position to Tyler's, around 20, and has a myriad of PGs ahead of him. If he doesn't play any better next year he'll improve his stock just by the lack of PG's in the draft.
Projected UNC Lineup:
PG Lawson
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Stepheson (Hansbrough?)
C Thompson
Bench: G Bobby Frasor, G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis
Sunday, April 6
Reliving Georgetown...
..but this time in reverse. There are some eery similarities between the two games, namely scoring droughts. In the Kansas game, the UNC offense finished the first half on an awful scoring drought, whereas in the Georgetown game the drought took place to finish the game and carried into overtime. There were a number of reasons for the overall offensive inefficiency. The Jayhawks didn't miss many shots (at least outside of their 2nd half drought) and played excellent transition defense, eliminating the Heels #1 and #2 options, the primary and secondary breaks. Then there was the smothering Kansas defense in the halfcourt which forced 18 turnovers (23.1%) and recorded 9 blocks (another 20.9%). Finally the Heels only got 29.5% of their own misses, down for their average 42%, and which is made all the more important by the fact that a poor eFG% (39.5%) and thus about 6 or 8 extra OR opportunities. Speaking of Effective Field Goal Percentage, in the past two years, 77 games, the Heels have shot under 40% eFG twice, against Georgetown in 2007 and against Kansas in 2008. Not that the Kansas defense doesn't deserve all the praise in the world for giving the Heels tough looks, but the Heels missed both dumb contested shots and a few shots I've seen them make all season.
Friday, April 4
Pouring out the Deon Thompson Haterade
Alright, in light of the recent work of Ken Pomeroy, its time to revisit some of our past work here at TFSB. In this article, Ken points out how wrong he was doubting Deon Thompson. Now, earlier in the season I looked at the main two big men filling the pterodactyl-sized hole at the 4-spot in the Heels' lineup. Also, as many of you who have taken in a game with me know, I wasn't Deon's biggest fan then. But, as you will see below, Deon Thompson has really stepped it up this year, despite the claims of idiot columnists over at SI. Ok, well, idiot is a strong word, but if KenPom has put that same prior thought in with his top 5 blunders of the year perhaps is time we stopped lamenting the loss of Brandan Wright and begun celebrating a great 4-year big man who would be getting way more props if not for this kid.
Wow, what a difference a year makes. Let's get the main complaints out of the way first: yes, Deon doesn't shoot 65% eFG (well, essentially FG% since they're big men) and his offensive rating isn't 119, but honestly, whose is? The offense isn't the issue since Tyler, Ty and Wayne have improved drastically in that category (they're all +5, from 115/116/120 to 121/124/126). Deon's ORtg has improved in its own right, from 93 to 100, mostly thanks to dropping the TORate to near Wright-ian levels (the mid teens), almost doubling his free throw rate (14 to 25), and improving his FT% (20 to 58). That's right, Deon now shoots free throws better than even Brandan Wright!! Now for the impressive part: his rebounding numbers have stayed constant, even through tougher competition, his assist rate has slightly improved, and his block rate has shot up to Brandan Wright-like levels. Ladies and gentlemen, for all intents and purposes, the Heels have replaced Brandan Wright, and it only took Deon a year to catch on. To revisit the Alex situation, he has improved very similarly to Deon, raising his ORtg a similar 7 points, dropping the TORate about 5 as well. The only problem is he's now eerily similar to the December version of Deon Thompson, while Deon is a whole new player.
Wow, what a difference a year makes. Let's get the main complaints out of the way first: yes, Deon doesn't shoot 65% eFG (well, essentially FG% since they're big men) and his offensive rating isn't 119, but honestly, whose is? The offense isn't the issue since Tyler, Ty and Wayne have improved drastically in that category (they're all +5, from 115/116/120 to 121/124/126). Deon's ORtg has improved in its own right, from 93 to 100, mostly thanks to dropping the TORate to near Wright-ian levels (the mid teens), almost doubling his free throw rate (14 to 25), and improving his FT% (20 to 58). That's right, Deon now shoots free throws better than even Brandan Wright!! Now for the impressive part: his rebounding numbers have stayed constant, even through tougher competition, his assist rate has slightly improved, and his block rate has shot up to Brandan Wright-like levels. Ladies and gentlemen, for all intents and purposes, the Heels have replaced Brandan Wright, and it only took Deon a year to catch on. To revisit the Alex situation, he has improved very similarly to Deon, raising his ORtg a similar 7 points, dropping the TORate about 5 as well. The only problem is he's now eerily similar to the December version of Deon Thompson, while Deon is a whole new player.
Wednesday, March 12
Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble
San Diego, George Mason, & Western Kentucky
um, so yeah. This was going to be a post about lost bubble spots. Teams like VA Tech, Ohio St and Kentucky should be sweating it out now that three leagues that have no business crashing the big dance are likely getting multiple bids. Now, what I'm actually going to do is follow suit and give my best guess as to who will be on the ACC All-Freshman team, especially since the actual version will be released soon.
Kyle Singler, Duke
JJ Hickson, NC State
Terrance Oglesby, Clemson
Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Jeff Allen, Virginia Tech
That's also my best guess as to the order of votes received, I think a couple of players will be getting the shaft here, both James Johnson and Malcolm Delaney have had noteworthy years but will likely be sad victims of vote splitting among teammates. IF either of them get the nod it would likely be Johnson over Oglesby or Allen.
um, so yeah. This was going to be a post about lost bubble spots. Teams like VA Tech, Ohio St and Kentucky should be sweating it out now that three leagues that have no business crashing the big dance are likely getting multiple bids. Now, what I'm actually going to do is follow suit and give my best guess as to who will be on the ACC All-Freshman team, especially since the actual version will be released soon.
Kyle Singler, Duke
JJ Hickson, NC State
Terrance Oglesby, Clemson
Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Jeff Allen, Virginia Tech
That's also my best guess as to the order of votes received, I think a couple of players will be getting the shaft here, both James Johnson and Malcolm Delaney have had noteworthy years but will likely be sad victims of vote splitting among teammates. IF either of them get the nod it would likely be Johnson over Oglesby or Allen.
First Team All-ACC
Just doing a little spring cleaning around here - I was putting some things away, brushed the dust off a few magazines, and something caught my eye underneath some chips on the coffee table...it was a blog! Our blog! So I cleaned it off and decided to give it a shiny new post before the ACC and NCAA Tournaments get underway. Today I'll give my First Team All-ACC and later I'll give some awards like I did last year (best pure shooter, best blocker, etc.).
Tyler Hansbrough
Sean Singletary
Tyrese Rice
Wayne Ellington
DeMarcus Nelson
These guys all played out of control this year, with Rice and Singletary playing on sub-par teams and as a consequence playing more minutes than the other three, boosting their value. Rice earned some well-deserved national attention when he dropped 34 points on UNC at the beginning of March...in the first half of the game. Hansbrough and Ellington are the key weapons on a balanced UNC squad this year, and DeMarcus Nelson is the best all-around player on a dangerous Duke team. Hansbrough was awarded ACC Player of the Year earlier this week, and if you've not heard yet, he'll have his jersey number (50) retired after he finishes up as a result of being named The Sporting News Player of the Year.
Tyler Hansbrough
Sean Singletary
Tyrese Rice
Wayne Ellington
DeMarcus Nelson
These guys all played out of control this year, with Rice and Singletary playing on sub-par teams and as a consequence playing more minutes than the other three, boosting their value. Rice earned some well-deserved national attention when he dropped 34 points on UNC at the beginning of March...in the first half of the game. Hansbrough and Ellington are the key weapons on a balanced UNC squad this year, and DeMarcus Nelson is the best all-around player on a dangerous Duke team. Hansbrough was awarded ACC Player of the Year earlier this week, and if you've not heard yet, he'll have his jersey number (50) retired after he finishes up as a result of being named The Sporting News Player of the Year.
Monday, February 25
What about Ty?
So, with the impending (we all hope) return of the Heels' starting PG Ty Lawson, many of us are left to wonder: what wonderful offensive progress will said return bring? To dig deeper and answer (or attempt to answer) this question, I compared the tempo-free performance of Carolina's ACC games with and without Lawson. For statistical equivalence I left the Duke game off, since the other 12 games are against opponents that can be considered roughly equal. In addition, UNC has played a couple of teams both with and without Lawson (Clemson and NC State), helping to balance out the statistics.
There are 5 measurements that differ between the Lawson-led Heels and the Quentin Thomas-led Heels, and they fall into 3 categories:
1) Have Nothing to do with who is playing point guard (or if they do I have no idea how):
Defensive Efficiency has gotten much better for the Heels. Not too much stock can be placed in this stat since the teams UNC has faced aren't normalized in any way. Also, it doesn't make much sense other than the fact that the lineup has gotten taller. I don't think anyone would try to tell you that Thomas is a better defender than Lawson, even considering his 3 or 4 extra inches. I'd like to think that the team has collectively picked up its defense since Lawson's offensive impact is missing.
2) Have Something to do with who is playing point guard:
Effective FG% and Free Throw Rate have both seen marked jumps in the time since Lawson left the lineup. This isn't due to either Lawson or Thomas but the fact that the offense now runs more through Tyler Hansbrough, who makes a higher percentage of shots and gets to the free throw line more than pretty much anyone, period.
3) Have Everything to do with who is playing point guard:
These are the important things; the team's change over the past weeks in Turnover Rate, Pace, and Offensive Efficiency are all due to Ty Lawson's bum ankle. Without Lawson in the lineup a less effective ballhandler is always toting the rock (be it Thomas for Lawson or Ginyard for Thomas). Also, there are far fewer possessions that the Raycom cameraman misses by zooming in on someone popping their jersey or pounding their chest, which means we've been playing slower. Also, since the Heels aren't getting those easy layups in transition their overall Offensive Efficiency is down.
So, to overstate the obvious, the Heels miss Ty Lawson, and should benefit from an added 6 to 8 non-empty possessions per game upon his return. Let's just hope they don't forget to feed the machine down low.
All of the specific stats can be found here. (Don't you just love Google Docs?)
There are 5 measurements that differ between the Lawson-led Heels and the Quentin Thomas-led Heels, and they fall into 3 categories:
1) Have Nothing to do with who is playing point guard (or if they do I have no idea how):
Defensive Efficiency has gotten much better for the Heels. Not too much stock can be placed in this stat since the teams UNC has faced aren't normalized in any way. Also, it doesn't make much sense other than the fact that the lineup has gotten taller. I don't think anyone would try to tell you that Thomas is a better defender than Lawson, even considering his 3 or 4 extra inches. I'd like to think that the team has collectively picked up its defense since Lawson's offensive impact is missing.
2) Have Something to do with who is playing point guard:
Effective FG% and Free Throw Rate have both seen marked jumps in the time since Lawson left the lineup. This isn't due to either Lawson or Thomas but the fact that the offense now runs more through Tyler Hansbrough, who makes a higher percentage of shots and gets to the free throw line more than pretty much anyone, period.
3) Have Everything to do with who is playing point guard:
These are the important things; the team's change over the past weeks in Turnover Rate, Pace, and Offensive Efficiency are all due to Ty Lawson's bum ankle. Without Lawson in the lineup a less effective ballhandler is always toting the rock (be it Thomas for Lawson or Ginyard for Thomas). Also, there are far fewer possessions that the Raycom cameraman misses by zooming in on someone popping their jersey or pounding their chest, which means we've been playing slower. Also, since the Heels aren't getting those easy layups in transition their overall Offensive Efficiency is down.
So, to overstate the obvious, the Heels miss Ty Lawson, and should benefit from an added 6 to 8 non-empty possessions per game upon his return. Let's just hope they don't forget to feed the machine down low.
All of the specific stats can be found here. (Don't you just love Google Docs?)
Diamond Heels sweep FAU to begin 2008 season
UNC played Florida Atlantic this weekend in baseball, sweeping the series and starting off the 2008 season 3-0. This from TarHeelBlue:
"Carolina clubbed 11 home runs and added six doubles for a .675 slugging percentage in the series sweep at Florida Atlantic, which marked just the eighth sweep on the road for UNC in the last eight seasons. Left fielder Dustin Ackley and center fielder Seth Williams each hit three home runs, and second baseman Kyle Seager added two."
"National player of the year candidate Dustin Ackley had at least three hits in each game this weekend and finished with a .714 average (10-14), three home runs, seven RBI and five runs scored. He belted a pair of solo shots Friday and added a three-run blast in Sunday's series finale for six home runs in his last seven games dating to last year's College World Series. The Walnut Cove, N.C., native was 4-for-4 Friday for his sixth career four-hit game and followed with back-to-back three-hit games to close the series. Ackley finished with a 1.429 slugging percentage on the weekend." Ackley has a .706 OBP to go along with his 1.429 slugging percentage to begin the season.
"Carolina clubbed 11 home runs and added six doubles for a .675 slugging percentage in the series sweep at Florida Atlantic, which marked just the eighth sweep on the road for UNC in the last eight seasons. Left fielder Dustin Ackley and center fielder Seth Williams each hit three home runs, and second baseman Kyle Seager added two."
"National player of the year candidate Dustin Ackley had at least three hits in each game this weekend and finished with a .714 average (10-14), three home runs, seven RBI and five runs scored. He belted a pair of solo shots Friday and added a three-run blast in Sunday's series finale for six home runs in his last seven games dating to last year's College World Series. The Walnut Cove, N.C., native was 4-for-4 Friday for his sixth career four-hit game and followed with back-to-back three-hit games to close the series. Ackley finished with a 1.429 slugging percentage on the weekend." Ackley has a .706 OBP to go along with his 1.429 slugging percentage to begin the season.
Thursday, February 21
The Duke Dilemma
Just as an FYI (to those of you who read this site regularly but don't follow college basketball) Duke appears to have found a bit of a sour patch en route to replicating its ACC perfection of 1999. Now, many people seem to know why this happens to Duke, however, I'm personally more interested in why it happened to Duke this time and if it has revealed a chink in the Blue Devils' armor. So, to try and find what went wrong (statistically) within the Devils last two games, I decided to compare (using the appropriately named statsheet.com) their first 10 ACC games (10-0, average margin of victory +14 pts) with their last two (0-2, -7 points).
Individually, these games differed greatly from each other. The points per possessions stat tells the story with Wake Forest able to limit the Duke offense (88 ppp versus and average of 116) while Miami's offense dominated the Duke "D" (113 ppp compared to 97). This is echoed in the eFG%, Duke shot 46.8% against Wake (54.5 ACC average) while Miami shot 63.1% against Duke (49.8% opponents average), while Duke held Wake exactly to their defensive average and shot exactly their offensive average against Miami. So, 2 ACC loses that Duke can blame on entirely different ends of the floor.
However, there are 2 statistical abberations that both games have in common. The first is the overall pace. Duke plays a fairly high pace game, 2nd in the ACC only to UNC. Both Miami and Wake average 70 possessions a game or fewer (Duke is at 74.5 in ACC play), so you'd think that neither would want to push the pace against a Duke team at home when the tempo reaches the 80's. In both losses, the games were the fastest Duke has played in the ACC (83 and 85 possessions), tied only by their game against fellow roadrunner UNC. The reason for the high pace was that Duke turned the ball over on 10% more of their possessions than average, in both games. Duke averages a turnover on 16% of possessions, but in these games they were forced to 26.5% and 27%. Their only other ACC game above 18% was when Duke hosted FSU. So, what's the formula for beating the Devils? Apparently "get the freaking ball". This should come to no shock, as Duke is not known for their rebounding, if a team can force them into empty possessions and limit their overall chances, you may very well have Duke on the ropes. However, this is easier said than done when playing a team that starts 4 guards.
To view the Duke vs ACC opponents spreadsheet (with thanks to statsheet.com) click here.
Individually, these games differed greatly from each other. The points per possessions stat tells the story with Wake Forest able to limit the Duke offense (88 ppp versus and average of 116) while Miami's offense dominated the Duke "D" (113 ppp compared to 97). This is echoed in the eFG%, Duke shot 46.8% against Wake (54.5 ACC average) while Miami shot 63.1% against Duke (49.8% opponents average), while Duke held Wake exactly to their defensive average and shot exactly their offensive average against Miami. So, 2 ACC loses that Duke can blame on entirely different ends of the floor.
However, there are 2 statistical abberations that both games have in common. The first is the overall pace. Duke plays a fairly high pace game, 2nd in the ACC only to UNC. Both Miami and Wake average 70 possessions a game or fewer (Duke is at 74.5 in ACC play), so you'd think that neither would want to push the pace against a Duke team at home when the tempo reaches the 80's. In both losses, the games were the fastest Duke has played in the ACC (83 and 85 possessions), tied only by their game against fellow roadrunner UNC. The reason for the high pace was that Duke turned the ball over on 10% more of their possessions than average, in both games. Duke averages a turnover on 16% of possessions, but in these games they were forced to 26.5% and 27%. Their only other ACC game above 18% was when Duke hosted FSU. So, what's the formula for beating the Devils? Apparently "get the freaking ball". This should come to no shock, as Duke is not known for their rebounding, if a team can force them into empty possessions and limit their overall chances, you may very well have Duke on the ropes. However, this is easier said than done when playing a team that starts 4 guards.
To view the Duke vs ACC opponents spreadsheet (with thanks to statsheet.com) click here.
Wednesday, February 6
Bubblicious
Alright everyone, just going to put up a predictive post about the NCAA Tournament field. Using ESPN's bubble watch, I picked out the "Work Left To Do" teams and looked at both their KP rating, consistency, and predicted records via RPI Forecast (which is essentially KP's predictor). So, I took these components and weighted them to give each team a score that represents how they should finish the season.
The yellow highlights the teams that should make the tournament, given that all those in the "Should Be In" category make the cut, and taking 2 at-large bids for mid-majors (South Alabama anyone?), and 1 more for the occasional conference tournament upset I'm not confident that both Drake and Butler will win their conference tournaments. As a side note, VA Tech (just making it as of yesterday) lost last night to NC State, so knock them down a rung and promote the next middling ACC team.
The yellow highlights the teams that should make the tournament, given that all those in the "Should Be In" category make the cut, and taking 2 at-large bids for mid-majors (South Alabama anyone?), and 1 more for the occasional conference tournament upset I'm not confident that both Drake and Butler will win their conference tournaments. As a side note, VA Tech (just making it as of yesterday) lost last night to NC State, so knock them down a rung and promote the next middling ACC team.
Monday, February 4
2/4 Top 25
The picture is finally starting to get clearer for the best teams in the country as there were nine teams that were in all three lists this week but didn't quite make the Top 25.
1. Memphis
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. North Carolina
5. UCLA
6. Georgetown
7. Tennessee
8. Wisconsin
9. Xavier
10. Stanford
11. Marquette
12. Michigan St.
13. Washington St.
14. Texas
15. Kansas St.
16. Drake
17. Indiana
18. Connecticut
19. Arizona
20. Butler
21. Texas A&M
22. Louisville
23. Pittsburgh
24. Clemson
25. Notre Dame
Just missed the cut: Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Mississippi, Southern California, Oklahoma, UNLV, Florida, Baylor
1. Memphis
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. North Carolina
5. UCLA
6. Georgetown
7. Tennessee
8. Wisconsin
9. Xavier
10. Stanford
11. Marquette
12. Michigan St.
13. Washington St.
14. Texas
15. Kansas St.
16. Drake
17. Indiana
18. Connecticut
19. Arizona
20. Butler
21. Texas A&M
22. Louisville
23. Pittsburgh
24. Clemson
25. Notre Dame
Just missed the cut: Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Mississippi, Southern California, Oklahoma, UNLV, Florida, Baylor
Friday, February 1
Game by Game Ratings
Hello folks, sorry for the long hiatus, but I'm back and soon (well, after this weekend) I'll be all college basketball all of the time. Anyways, First I'd like to go ahead and endorse, err pick the Patriots in the Super Bowl (sorry about that, too much debate watching). They'll get all 10 of my precious points. Now, onto the real reason I'm posting. I've been toiling away at a game by game measurement of the Tar Heels' offensive and defensive performances. I wanted to find a way to represent how well the offense and defense played in each game to see if the team is in as much trouble as people suspect, and also to see how much of the team's struggles have resulted in playing some stiffer competition. The results? Well, check out the nifty graph:
Now, what does that all mean. Ok, lets start with the easiest to understand first, OE-DE. Basically, game by game, our Offensive Efficiency minus our Defensive Efficiency. This roughly translates to score (as you can see, the lone negative value is the Maryland loss) and is a good barometer of how the game went, from domination (SC St, Kent St, Valpo) to close games (Clemson, GT, Maryland). Now, the slightly more complicated part. The red and green (for stop and go), are what I've deemed ratings. I calculated a rating based on two things: Opponent's Adjusted Efficiency (season average) and Actual Game Efficiency (game results). The rating is the difference between that single game, and the team's average on the season, which is then weighted by a adaptation of z-score. So, since Clemson is averaging 115.3 OE on the season, in the game against UNC they had 99.4, this makes that game's rating (after some z-score adjustment) 14.34. The blue line can be used as a guide to see the results of the game, and the red and green lines the respective strengths of UNC's offense and defense. Obviously UNC has won more games relying on offense than defense. As a side note, UNC's forced TO% and OE are now significantly correlated at a 99% CI. Basically, UNC scores more efficiently when forcing more turnovers's, statistically speaking.
Now, what does that all mean. Ok, lets start with the easiest to understand first, OE-DE. Basically, game by game, our Offensive Efficiency minus our Defensive Efficiency. This roughly translates to score (as you can see, the lone negative value is the Maryland loss) and is a good barometer of how the game went, from domination (SC St, Kent St, Valpo) to close games (Clemson, GT, Maryland). Now, the slightly more complicated part. The red and green (for stop and go), are what I've deemed ratings. I calculated a rating based on two things: Opponent's Adjusted Efficiency (season average) and Actual Game Efficiency (game results). The rating is the difference between that single game, and the team's average on the season, which is then weighted by a adaptation of z-score. So, since Clemson is averaging 115.3 OE on the season, in the game against UNC they had 99.4, this makes that game's rating (after some z-score adjustment) 14.34. The blue line can be used as a guide to see the results of the game, and the red and green lines the respective strengths of UNC's offense and defense. Obviously UNC has won more games relying on offense than defense. As a side note, UNC's forced TO% and OE are now significantly correlated at a 99% CI. Basically, UNC scores more efficiently when forcing more turnovers's, statistically speaking.
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