The Lowdown on the ACC Coastal Mess...

...or How I learned to stop hoping and realize UNC isn't going to the ACC Championship game.

So, there are several games to be played, but as of now, it looks like there are 5 teams all with 3 losses in the ACC Coastal (assuming GT holds on to its 34-10 41-16 lead over Miami). Two of these teams play each other (UVA-VT), so the season will end with a maximum of 4 teams tied with 3 losses. Also, Georgia Tech is in the "clubhouse" as it were, playing the final week out of the ACC (@ Georgia). From the ACC's website here are the rules on deciding who plays in the ACC Championship game:

Three-Team Tie (or More):
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used.)
1. Combined head-to-head record among teams.
This one gives VA Tech/UVA winner the inside track, among the 4 teams with only 3 losses UNC and the VT/UVA winner are 2-1, GT and Miami are 1-2, also both VT and UVA beat UNC head to head (see #1 in Two-Team Tie below) sending either to the ACC Championship game
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competiton sic versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best
overall Conference (divisional and non divisional record) and
proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams
based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by draw.

Two-Team Tie:
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
I've deleted rules 2-8 because not only are they repeats of the above 2-8, but they also are moot, since all of the teams in consideration have played and none have played to a tie.

What it all means
Basically, only Virginia and Virginia Tech control their own destinies. If they both win this weekend, they play next weekend (in Blacksburg) for the Coastal Division and a ticket to the ACC Championship Game. If either team lose either game, UNC is in the driver's seat, assuming they can win out. So pull hard for the Blue Devils in Blacksburg this weekend.

Update: I found a situation that I overlooked. If VT wins the VT/UVA game, and UNC has lost a game to NC State or Duke, there would be 3 teams with 3 losses VT, Miami, GA Tech. Using tiebreak #1 these three teams are all 1-1 against themselves (VT beat GA Tech beat Miami beat VT...). Then you would move to tiebreak #2, and using that rule, since VT would have more Coastal Division wins than the other two teams (they beat UNC while both GA Tech and Miami lost to UNC) they would still move on.

Ramblin Wreck Wrap

Strong win for the Heels today over Ga Tech, 28-7. Once again, we were outgained yet won comfortably because our opponents insist upon turning the ball over. My brother from a different mother, Jonathan Dwyer, rushed for 157 yards. However, over half of the yards came from an 85 yd touchdown run late in the 4th quarter.

Cam Sexton continues to do everything he can to retain his job as game manager by throwing for a piddly 100 yds and a not-so-piddly 2 TDs. I'm sure that Ga Tech put about 5 guys on Hakeem Nicks after seeing what happened against BC so I will let it slide.

Also, for our readers who are on the Thorpe or Bednarik award selection committees, Trimane Goddard has 5 interceptions so far this season.

One question I have is why were we wearing our road unis at home today. Tech wore white, so what gives with the navy jerseys?


Edit: Trimane Goddard has 6 interceptions this season. Bednarik and Thorpe voters, please take note. I also submitting a mailbag question for Adam Lucas: when was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina blue jerseys at home?

Knee-Jerk Top 10 (Week 8 or something?)

So, I think this college football season is shaping up rather well, lots of exciting upsets and if everything goes well perhaps the fall of the BCS!! Ok, follow my logic here, in the top 20 there are 10 one-loss teams and 6 zero-loss teams. Included in the 0-loss teams are the following: Arizona St, Hawaii, South Florida, Boston College, and Kansas. Not that I doubt these teams, ok, I do. Four of them WILL LOSE BEFORE THE SEASON IS OVER, in fact, likely 3 this weekend (BC, USF, ASU). Of the other two, only Ohio St has to lose to fell the great BCS. If Hawaii is undefeated they likely won't make the title game (if they do, and get stomped, even more outcry which is good). Basically Ohio St has to lose some time over the next 5 weeks (Mich St, @Penn St, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Michigan), to leave (and I'm assuming here) roughly 8-10 teams with one loss as of bowl time. In the past, there have been easy decisions to make to set up a national chamionship (last year the only undefeated teams played) or any one-loss controversy has only plagued one of the two spots (see 2000 & 2001 where a controversial one-loss team was picked to play an undefeated). Hopefully this year, there will be up to 5 or 6 teams claiming the right to play for the national championship and the powers that be might realize that a playoff is the best system for all parties involved (fans, schools, sponsors, etc)

Edit: Ok, for some reason I didn't catch that the other 2 undefeated teams I predicted to lose are both idle, and playing in fact NEXT weekend, oops. At least I was right about USF

1) Ohio St - as I've said, they've been improving in leaps and bounds this season, which has been full of OTJ training for the offense, now some losses (Cal, LSU) have them atop the polls (Mich St)
2) USF - well, they haven't lost yet, and their resume is quite impressive, they've got a rough mathup comin this week (@ Rutgers, Thurs)
3) Kentucky - the lovely SEC Beatloop (LSU>SC>KY>LSU...), luckily the two SEC East teams have yet to play Florida, hopefully that will help settle things out a bit in the comparative rankings, but until then we're just have to guess, or go with the hot hand, hence the whole "knee-jerk" gimmick, they'll get a chance to prove their ranking this weekend (Florida)
4) Oklahoma - dispatched upstart Missouri this week to help everyone forget about the stumble at Colorado, they should coast (and steadily creep up the AP rankings) until a game at Texas Tech in November (@ Iowa St)
5) LSU - rough loss at Kentucky, its looking more and more like an undefeated season for any BCS conference team will punch your ticket to the national championship game, well, it usually does, but it seems especially certain this year, with the polls favoring them winning out should get them a date with Oklahoma (guessing here) on Jan 8th (Auburn)
6) WVU - just like Florida they benefit from the bye week (Miss St)
7) SC - quite impressive in the first half against UNC, and quite not in the second, I feel like the real Gamecocks were the ones playing the first half, but their running game has to improve if they want to put away teams in the fourth quarter (Vanderbilt)
8) Florida - I've returned them to the top 10 because everyone else seems to be mired in suckatude, that and I'm anticipating a win over Kentucky since it would only cloud the picture in the SEC (@ Kentucky)
9) Missouri - Losing by 10 to a top-10 ranked team, on the road isn't that bad, we'll leave them here for a bit, could have some trouble with Texas Tech's system offense this weekend (Texas Tech)
10) BC - #2 in the AP, finally a loss comes this week, I really hope they don't tear down the goalposts in Blacksburg (idle)
Would have been in if I didn't want to rant about the lunacy that is BC's #2 ranking) Oregon - they're looking like the best team in the Pac-10 right now (undefeated top-10 Arizona St is a CROCK a la BC)

Dropped: Cal, Illinois

Great story on Vinny here
Apparently the Red Sox Nation (which has elected a president) is none too pleased with Eric Gagne
College Basketball is just around the CORNER!!!

Knee Jerk Top 10

Yeah, so I've decided to get a little lazy in my poll making, and a Power 16 doesn't really seem to make a lot of sense anyways, so 10 it is. Not only 10 because its the first 2 digit number, or because we have 10 fingers and are ruled by 10-based number systems, but 10 because that's how many teams will eventually make BCS bowls. So this week will be a nice wrap-up of 2 Saturdays' worth of activities

1) LSU - Easily the #1 team in the country, haven't I said this for a while?
2) OSU - Also very very impressive, I don't know how the AP has Cal ahead of them (ok, I do know, they started higher in the preseason)
3) Cal - Winning on the road in the Pac-10 is a good sign, though I'm not sold on the rest of their resume
4) USF - Wow, how does UNC pick their schedule? We always seem to play the wrong team the wrong year (ND/Rutgers last year, USF this year)
5) SC - Only loss is at the obvious #1 team in the country, what's wrong with that? Should easily be the top 1-loss team, and probably ranked higher than some unbeatens (as they are here)
6) Oklahoma - I'm not one to hold a grudge over one loss
7) Missouri - They seem to be impressing people (ok, ok, I'm copying the blog poll, sorry I didn't happen to watch any football this past weekend, I had better things to do)
8) WVU - Strong bounce back effort against 'Cuse, they should show that they're for real in the coming weeks
9) BC - This makes me sick, in fact, I was going to rank them 6th, but I can't, there is no way. I'm going to drop them to 9th on principle alone, they have beaten NO ONE, next year I want UNC to stack the schedule to start with 4 cupcakes that we should beat a 2 decent teams on par with us. Soon a 6-0 start, slippage at the top, and the Butch Davis year 2 will be off with a bang. Honestly AP poll, #4?, Really? Have you no shame? Semi-bold prediction, BC finishes the year 2-4.
10) Illinois - I think from now on the #10 spot will go to a newcomer to the top 20 or so who has shown some real potential, could they definitely beat Kentucky or Oregon the other 2 competitors for this slot? Maybe, but I'm basing this more on recent performance and potential.

Dropping (from the top 10) - USC, Florida, Rutgers, Texas, Oregon)

The day's links:
Jon Beason is rocking out as the Panthers new MLB
The Panthers have signed a QB who is closer to my parents' age than my own (not to mention drafted in the same position, but 15 years earlier, than David Carr)
The man who will be (and is currently) most responsible for the mercinarification (is that a word?) of sports, especially baseball, thinks A-Rod is worth 500 million for the next 10 years (are we crossing into an era where players begin to directly make money from their own revenue? first Becks and now this)
Deadspin editor Will Leitch's Fair and Foul blog with the NY Times is definitely worth a read

Knee Jerk 16

1) LSU - Dominant, though again at home, over the Gamecocks, they'll test their road mettle at KY and AL in 2 and 4 weeks respectively
2) USC - Just blowing out opponents, man, I really wish they played in the SEC or a league where they would be tested week in and week out, then it'd be easier to get an actual barometer for how good they've been over the past 4 years
3) Oklahoma - As Football Outsiders says (and this is probably more important in the parity-filled NFL)
4) Florida - Ole Miss, really guys? That was nearly grounds for knee jerking them out of the top 5, but no one else really had a good enough weekend to bump them out
5) West Virginia - Dominated weak competition, similar to the teams above them in the rankings, oh and Pat White is getting LUCKY!
6) Ohio St - Simply building on the performance at Washington, looking like they might be the team to beat in the Big XI
7) California - The Bears continue to erase their blunder at Colorado St with big wins
8) Rutgers - Idle
9) Texas - Putting away bad competition (noticing a theme here?)
10) Oregon - Ummm, see above (numbers 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9)
11) BC - Wow, why did I do this this week? I should have just copied and pasted last week's in with Penn St erased, I mean, see above (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10)
12) Kentucky - Woah, is this a change in the poll?!!? Yes, for those of you who remember, I went out on a limb, and hung out on the Arkansas/McFadden bandwagon for another week. Well, there's a new SEC bandwagon that I'm obligated to jump on since this is the Knee Jerk 16, though the victory over Louisville looks a little less impressive now
13) Penn St - I wasn't in total agreement with some of the calls that lead to this upset, but Michigan looked silly against Oregon, Penn St shouldn't have been in the position where calls would make a difference in the outcome of the game
14) Clemson - They've shown up some decent opponents, winning by 20 points on the road is impressive, I don't care if it was NC State
15) Wisconsin - Slipping, slipping, the Big XI is really looking weak this year
16) Miami - The first signature win of the Randy Shannon era, beating a top 25 team on the road is enough to outweigh the loss at OU (besides, OU is pretty good, even without Sweet Purple Jesus)

Booted: Arkansas, Louisville, South Carolina

the NEW Power 16

well, more like top 16 of the AP Ballot, just call it the "Knee Jerk 16"

1) LSU - didn't flinch this weekend, and still have the single best win in the Top 25
2) Florida - flexed its offensive (and defensive) muscle against Tenn, so they get the #2 spot (and the poll gets nicknamed the "Knee Jerk")
3) USC - impressive in an away victory over Nebraska
4) Oklahoma - didn't do anything wrong, just didn't have as good a win as the 3 teams above them
5) West Virginia - the question here, as usual, is defense, they can put points on anyone, but could they stop a USC or Florida?
6) Ohio St - winning with a dominant 2nd half on the road is quite impressive and erased doubt from early stumbles with lesser opponents, just wait until the offense gets its legs under it
7) California - easy win makes up for last weekends' squeaker with Colorado St.
8) Penn St - will they provide a challenge for OSU in the Big Ten
9) Rutgers - i'd like to see them do something against someone meaningful (we might have to wait until the end of October, with back-to-back against USF & WVU)
10) Texas - poor showing in UCF, who scheduled that game? would any other power be caught dead playing such a "no win" game on the road?
11) Oregon - and here we fall off the wagon, these teams I don't feel particularly good about, but there isn't anyone else around
12) BC - good win at GT, but the ACC is just pitiful this year, VT and FSU really aren't pulling their weight
13) South Carolina - I'm still high from their win at UGA, but next week will provide a true test (@LSU), boy the hits don't stop coming in the SEC, do they?
14) Wisconsin - wow, the year the Big 10 is theirs for the taking, the always overlooked (and preseason favorite) Badgers seem to be choking it away
15) Louisville - um, they're just here by virtue of my lack of faith in the next 5-10 teams
16) Arkansas - yeah, yeah, yeah, didn't they just lose to Alabama? they did, but by 3, in last second fashion, on the road, without thier best WR, in Nick Saban's SEC re-debut. The Hogs will bounce back to win the next 6 to go to 7-1 taking a nice head of steam into the meat of the SEC schedule

Wow, that was harder than I thought, finding 16 teams to fill out the 16 spots, thus the bottom 3 are either weekend losers who may be better than they're playing now, or teams who haven't really shown me anything. All the teams after those (GT, Clemson, South Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Nebraska, etc) haven't really impressed me either, College Football meet Mr. Parity.

And no, I have no reason for picking the number 16.

Oh, and those links I promised:
Duke students need to work on its football celebrations
Looks like Red Sox fans should stick to asking Red Sox for autographs, what's the matter kid, did Jacoby Ellsbury turn you down?