Pre-Tourney Thoughts

Early today I posted a some bubble thoughts over at Triangle Offense, and bit my tongue about my thoughts on RPI. In truth, it is a blunt tool that measures only wins and losses and ignores quality. Now, to be fair the NCAA selection committee does a fine job sorting through all the available information (and ignoring conference affiliation, no we're serious folks, we don't count conference bids). They use useful information like best and worst wins and average win RPI and average loss RPI (hmmm, I wonder if they compare it with the median...).

Anyways, I pulled the numbers off KenPom and compared them with RPI, just to get a short list of what teams the RPI is over and undervaluing. Since the committee is partially seeding by RPI, look for these teams to under or over perform their seed expectations, or "PASE" (see previous post for more PASE fun).

RPI>KenPom (Number is actual difference)
-52 Dayton
-43 Siena
-33 George Mason
-29 Florida St.
-25 Louisville
-21 Mississippi
-20 Tennessee
-20 Utah St.
-18 Illinois St.
-17 Oklahoma

These are teams the RPI loves while KenPom is a bit more doubtful of, since I trust KenPom I'd say these are teams you should think twice before blindly filling in to fit their seed line.

KenPom>RPI (Number is difference)
26 Gonzaga
27 UCLA
29 Kentucky
35 Houston
36 Kansas St.
38 Notre Dame
39 New Mexico
42 North Dakota St.
49 Stanford
61 Washington St.

Ditto from above, but opposite direction. These teams are better than their RPI's indicate, not all of them will make the NCAA's, but the ones that do may be a seed line or two lower than they should be. A team that should be a #3 playing as a #5 or #6 seed (UCLA) is a pretty big change.

More importantly, what causes this discrepancy in the rating systems? Well, my theory is that it is everything that the RPI ignores: scoring margin. The RPI sees a win as a win and a loss as a loss, when in reality there are good losses and bad wins. Virginia Tech taking Duke to the wire today was a good win, it was likely a better performance than they had expected. Similarly, Butler only defeating Cleveland St. by two points at home was a closer game than expected, and should be counted as such.

To determine if my hypothesis is correct, I've taken the top 100 teams and determined how over or under rated they are in RPI (a "Delta" value), and calculated the correlations and r squared values for each of the front page KenPom values (Pyth, OE, DE, Cons, etc.) to the calculated Delta value. This should show if any KenPom value can be said to be causing the difference between the two ranking systems.

Once I did this, there were several KenPom values that stood out with a better than random correlation (.300 or greater):


The stats with the most significant correlations are Luck, Consistency, Wins, and Losses. Wins and Losses are obvious and easily explainable, since the RPI is strictly based on wins and losses it is tied to them, while KenPom often sees through the good losses and bad wins to discredit fraudulent teams eking by easy competition or the good ones losing heartbreakers against strong competition.

Consistency isn't as obvious. The stats are saying that a higher consistency rating correlates well with a higher Delta value (higher being better in KenPom, worse in RPI, think of it as "higher up in Ryan's opinion). My guess would be that this inconsistency is penalized, because it often results in losses. The inconsistency can also win games a team shouldn't win, and perhaps KenPom's system rewards teams more than RPI does. This correlation doesn't make as much sense as the Luck correlation.

Luck is pretty obvious, and I'm glad it is by far the strongest correlation. Luck amounts to winning close games or, on the reverse side, losing them. Luck can be considered KenPom's way of wiping away close results, since they come down to random chance anyways (today, ABC proved the point, by repeatedly showing VA Tech's record in close games in the Seth Greenberg era, 33-35 I believe, 9-9 in 1 point games). RPI is essentially luck blind, beating a team by 1 point is the same as beating a team by 41, and we all know that simply shouldn't be the case. Appropriately Luck has a -.602 R-Squared value, meaning that bad luck (lower values) correlate to higher Delta values (overrated in RPI). Teams that play in and lose close games end up being underrated by RPI, while those that win too many close games are overrated.



In summary (and I commend you if you've made it through this quantitatively heavy post, I can't post stuff like this at TO, so while the week to week Four Factor stuff will end up there, the math lectures will remain a TFSB item) you can't rely on past performance in close games as an indicator of future performance. RPI is blind to margin while KenPom takes it into account. Use this to your advantage next weekend when filling out brackets, unless you're in my bracket pool of course...

PASE Projections and the Tar Heels

I was reviewing the Basketball prospectus today and they had a good article about a custom PASE formula. The author used it to determine the success of teams vs their O Eff, D Eff and Pythag rankings (pre-tourney) in the NCAA tournament. While it looks at all teams as a whole, it's interesting to see how their D Eff and Pythag seem to correlate well with success or failure in the tournament.

There is a list of common traits the author pulled to show successful teams since 2004 at the bottom article, shown here:



We hit all those markers except for two: pts allowed <> 88.8. While it is likely impossible that we'll get PPG allowed below 64.2, it is possible to get our D Eff down below 88.8. The author notes that 2 of the last 5 champs hit all the criteria (ignoring the last trend, at least 2 straight NCAA bids).

This raises many questions for our team. I am projecting that we will maintain the marks we are currently hitting (esp. with the second half of our schedule giving us easier games). My hope would be that our D Eff improves throughout the season and Roy uses the rest of the season to focus on our defense (I'm looking at you two, Bobby and Tyler). Our D Eff currently sits at 88.8. If we can reduce the number of points scored against us per 100 possessions by at least .1, we'll be in better shape once the tournament starts.
As you can tell, this is not difficult, it just requires a sustained effort.

Of course, there are critiques to be made with this formula. I'm sure there are other statistical measures that can indicate how successful a team is but the author didn't include. There may be some random stat out there that does a much better job of correlating regular season performance with tournament performance. Since that stat remains to be seen, we'll give the author the benefit of the doubt. Also, there's no real way to look at how teams match up against each other player to player. That certainly matters because every team has a style it's vulnerable to that other teams don't have to worry about.

On a final note, UConn is one of the few teams that's close to hitting all the marks here. Defensively, they are better than the Heels but are just shy of the O Eff numbers they are looking for here. Memphis is also hitting 8/9, lacking in the O Eff dept by a bigger margin than UConn. It would appear that if UConn can boost their O Eff while holding other stats to current levels, they are a near lock to make the final four and could very well be the favorite.

Previewing Duke

Even up in Wisconsin, I'm having a hard time containing my excitement for tonight's game. As usual, this should be a great game as Duke hosts the Heels. There's disagreement between the AP Polls and Ken Pomeroy's ranking system, hardly surprising, but popular opinion favors the Heels.

The latest spread has the Heels at -1.5, up from -2 at opening. The O/U is 156, suggesting the winning team will need at least 79 points to win. Ken Pom favors Duke at 81-76 and gives us just under a 1/3 chance of winning. Duke is coming off a big overtime win over Miami, 78-75 and the Heels recently cruised over UVA 76-61. Although many in the media have brought up the bad Duke loss at Clemson, they ignore the importance of the comeback against the U, where Duke was down 15 before tying the game with 10 minutes to play and winning in OT.

Greg Paulus has also been named the starting point guard, likely because of Nolan Smith's recent slump in production. Historically, Paulus has done well against the Heels, especially as a 3 point threat. This leaves Duke with four legit 3 pt shooters: Singler, Henderson, Scheyer and Paulus. Given the Heels' difficulties with high screens and pick & rolls, I hope everybody knows how they're supposed to play different screens. Given Duke's irritating ability to get opponents to pick up cheap fouls, Deon, Tyler and Ed better be careful when they switch on high screens. I predict we'll see a lot of pick and rolls that result in kickouts to the corner.

The Blue Devils also rebound well for a team known for perimeter and slashing play. If anybody recalls the BC game, they'll remember it's entirely possible for the Heels to have a difficult time on the boards. By sending everyone for rebounds, BC got a lot of boards and thereby gave us few transition opportunities. I wonder if Coach K will send lots of bodies to the boards to get more offensive rebounds or have people get back to stop the break. Methinks it will be a combination of the two to keep us on our toes.

Anybody else, feel free to post your thoughts/comments about tonight's game.

What's Demonizing the Deacs?

Early this week someone asked me what I thought had happened to Wake Forest. This was just on the heels of their abysmal performance at Miami that left them at 1-3 over their last 4 and able to slay such giants as Duke and UNC, but unable to handle the ACC's cellar dwellers such as Georgia Tech.

About the Deacons, an opinion you'll likely hear a lot of, is that the Deacon's inexperience is a main cause for their inconsistency. This is not untrue, as the ACC is a tough conference (#1 in RPI) where if you let up for any game, especially on the road, almost any team can beat you. The Deacons are indeed inexperienced, with their main contributors (Johnson 15.7%, Teague 23.2%, Aminu 16.5) all being underclassmen and using over 50% of their total possessions. Similarly Wake ranks 274th in "Experience" on KenPom, with an average of 1.32 years (this is of course weighted by minutes played). Though they have some upperclassmen, Senior role player Harvey Hale and Juniors who play large parts (McFarland, Williams, Smith), this team thrives off of the three underclassmen. So Wake Forest is young and inexperienced, this isn't news to anyone. They played a soft non-conference schedule (Non-Conf SOS 269th) that didn't quite let anyone get a really in depth look at how their young talent would react to adverse situations and mold into a team. Younger players typically have more drastic ups and downs than older ones (see Wake's 292nd consistency rank), and obviously this has positive ramifications. If Wake were insanely consistent, they may have never played well enough to beat UNC or Duke. However, the opposite side of that coin is that often times the Deacons play way under their potential other games (see VATech, GT, Miami).

Ok, we can all agree that Wake is inexperienced and inconsistent, but specifically how has this let them down and resulted in losses? Jeff Teague feels that teams have begun to game plan against him and shut him down, not untrue but I don't think this is the main issue. It's certainly doesn't help to have a point guard who takes 14 shots to get to 15 points (average over the last 3 games), but against Duke he only scored 11 points (2 assists) and they somehow managed to win. That is because the true cause for their recent slide is defense. Looking at the Deacon's last 8 games they're 5-3 (ACC schedule +BYU who I'll include because they're of roughly comparable ability and skill to the slightly above-average ACC team, such as Miami). In their 5 wins they gave up only a 94 defensive efficiency, and not against many offensively inept teams (UNC averages 123, Duke 115, BYU 116). In the 3 losses they've allowed a 109 defensive efficiency, to the likes of Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami (110, 98, and 115 respectively). Wake's reputation is and was built on defense. Much like the Tar Heels, a lot of their offense comes from fast breaks created off forced turnovers and missed shots. The Deacon's offense may not have been operating at full capacity in those 3 losses, but if so it's only because their defense didn't set it up for easy buckets. When their defense is working, the Deacons have many more fast breaks and easy baskets, as evidenced by their torrid pace in wins (79.2 poss/game) when compared to the pace at which they've played their losses (71.0). At a deeper level, why is the Deacon's defense failing? Their tightly packed zone forced opponents to take jump shots. This is in line with one of the most famous talking points of basketball "don't foul jump shooters". Wake's zone doubles down low without fouling and forces opposing teams to take jumpers. In their wins the Deacon's opponents average a 33.3* Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA) practically identical to Wake's season average (33.5). In the 3 losses, their opponents have a 54.9 Free Throw Rate. That rate of fouling is way too high to succeed playing a zone defense built around forcing poor shots and playing staunch defense on the easy ones.

Obviously there are other statistical discrepancies in their wins and losses, but I feel those (FG%, Offensive Efficiency, Offensive and Defensive Turnover Rate) are mainly effects of the Deacon's main issues, sloppy zone defense that results in fouling opponents too frequently. The Deacons are suffering from the problem that has seemingly plagued the Roy Williams-led Tar Heels every February/March for the past 6 years, consistently being able to put forth the effort it takes to play high level defense.

*Take out the UNC game (the foul line frequenting Heels posted a 51.4% FTR) and this number drops to 28.8.

Super Bowl Sunday

Anyone feel gutsy enough to take the Cards? I sure don't.

Updated standings

1. John 8 (6-4)
2. Ryan 4 (7-3)
3. Lucy -16 (3-7)

Steelers-Cards in two weeks.

Top Shelf Saturday

Just thought I'd take down some thoughts as I watch a very interesting Saturday in college basketball. A several pairs of highly KenPom-rated teams are going at it today:

(5)G'town @ (1)Duke: Duke won a game that was somewhat closer than the score indicated. With Monroe saddled with 3 fouls the Blue Devils took an 11-0 run to lead 40-29 at the half. Similarly in the second, the Hoyas were within 4 when Monroe picked up #4 (a technical from the bench), without Monroe (the Hoyas main rebounding threat) in the the game, the Blue Devils pulled away, knocking down shots in their 5 guard spread offense. Singler started slowly and shot poorly (7-18, 1-6), but was able to contribute in other ways, mainly with 5 offensive and 13 total rebounds, Henderson was able to pick up the Blue Devils' offense with 23 pts (10-15, 3-6).
Bottom Line: The Hoyas are a good all around team, with a gimmick offense that can catch some teams flat-footed and a true star in Greg Monroe, but the Devils staunch defense and small lineup did a good job defending the "Georgetown" (read: modified Princeton) offense, and without offensive trickery and their star, the Hoyas were somewhat easily vanquished. As always, when the Devils are hustling on defense, they easily outwork their size disadvantage. Similarly on the offensive end, when the shots are dropping for any of their main weapons (Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson)*, the Devils are hard to beat.

(8)Wake @ (17)Clemson: Early, Clemson had seemed to suck Wake in to a helter-skelter, poorly organized, style of play, during which the Tigers were hanging tough and seeming to avoid the Deacons half court defense. Since then Wake has seemed to take control, executing by making open jumpers, running the break well, and keeping Clemson off the offensive glass which helped their defense shine through. Opening the second, the Deacons do their best Tar Heel impression, running out to a 12 point lead on a made three and easy (I mean EASY) transition baskets, including a ferocious dunk by Aminu. The most impressive thing about Wake, aside from their defense, is their laundry list of big bodies to both rebound and play defense. A bonus is that none of them are good enough to be missed when in foul, except perhaps Aminu. Wake Forest's matchup with Duke next week should be interesting, their offensive styles are in stark contrast while they both play excellent defense (#4 and #2 respectively). Needless to say, I am quite jealous of the Demon Deacon defense. They are using a very Tar Heel-esque blueprint of speed and offensive rebounding on offensive, but their zone defense seems to be working better for them than intense switching man-to-man has for the boys in powder blue (come on, Marcus...).
Bottom Line: This is a very familiar Clemson team, who relies on outside shooting runs and full court pressure, that works against 80% of the country, but won't against the top three teams in the ACC. Wake has taken a large step forward, with the addition of a few extra big bodies, and a talented freshman (think Marvin Williams) in Aminu. They will challenge for the ACC and the 3 game lead the Heels have given them will be a tall mountain to climb. The more I watch this game, the better and better I feel about the Heels 3 point loss in Winston-Salem.

(9)Ariz St @ (10)UCLA: Wow, Arizona St's road unis are classy. I'm a sucker for simple, clean, classic designs. I'll also have to confess that I had NO idea Herb Sendek was in the Pitino coaching tree. It will be interesting to watch a Sendek team flow through one player as much as the Sun Devils do, James Harden (if you haven't heard of him, look him up) uses 34% of possessions while playing 83% of the team's minutes. Early, Harden's offensive prowess is drawing the attention of literally every Bruin at that end of the court. The Bruins have no individual defensive stopper with the size and speed to match up with Harden, while his teammates have been able to hit the open shots they've been the beneficiaries of. Arizona St's zone had seemed to perplex UCLA into poor outside shots, and to more than make up for the Sun Devils lack of size (only one player 6-9 on the starting lineup, 201st in effective height). The Bruins have been able to have some jumpers fall and score when the zone isn't fully set (on fast breaks and offensive rebounds) to bring the game to a tie late in the first. The Bruins march continues into the second. They're double-teaming Harden on one end and getting into the fast break and hitting shots opened up by their excellent passing to beat the once perplexing ASU zone.
Bottom Line: UCLA has the offense of past years, while their defense has slipped, Arizona State is in the Georgetown mold, with a go to guy that they are too reliant on, not that I can blame Herb Sendek, because James Harden is a special player now, and will be in the NBA (think Brandon Roy).

I won't be watching (14)L'ville host (4)Pittsburgh, but I will be interested to see how Pitt handles only its second real challenge of the season. The AP #1 Panthers have only played one other team in the KenPom top 50, a win at Georgetown early in the Big East schedule

*I'm intentionally leaving out Smith, who's main contribution is sound ball handing (a 23.5 TORate is an improvement over Paulus who averaged a 30 TORate the last 2 years). His assist and steal rates are respectively 2nd and 3rd on the team, among starters. As a side note, Mile Plumlee has a 45.4 TORate, he's a forward, right? Its no wonder Coach K doesn't run a standard offense.

As a bonus, I'll go ahead and throw together an underrated/overrated list with KenPom and the AP. I'll use the AP rankings out to about 42 (43-47 all only received 1 25th place vote, but I will mention AP #44 Mizzou)

Overrated (AP/KP)
Texas (11/30)
Minnesota (18/40)
Syracuse (8/32)
Michigan (25/51)
Florida St. (31/58)
Notre Dame (12/43)
St. Mary's (30/62)
George Mason (41/77)
Boston College (37/81)
Arkansas (27/90)

Most of the teams are mysterious, I don't know why half of them are on anyone's top 25 ballot, while some are more obvious (BC). Florida St., Syracuse, and Notre Dame are benefiting from playing in strong conferences. I didn't realized George Mason was still riding the publicity bump from 3 years ago. Oh, and who the hell voted for Arkansas?

Underrated (AP/KP) NV=No Votes (appeared on 0 ballots)
Missouri (44/11)
West Virginia (36/7)
Washington (NV/25)
Gonzaga (26/2)
Kansas St. (NV/26)
Utah (NV/27)
Brigham Young (34/13)
Kansas (38/19)
Memphis (29/12)
Illinois (28/16)

USC and Kentucky would be on this list, but KP has taken into account their recent upsets (ASU and Tenn) while the AP hasn't, I'll bet they show up on a ballot or two this week. Some good teams are getting no attention at all (UK, but that will change) Washington, K-State, and Utah are no where to be found, on any ballot. Then there are those that the national media know about but apparently don't respect enough: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Memphis and Mizzou. Obviously due to the absurd nature of polls, teams with 4 losses (Zags, WVU) can't be ranked high nationally, no matter how respectable the losses may be.

Championship round

That's what they call it, right?

Ravens @ Steelers
Eagles @ Cardinals

Birds abound! Allocate 10 points between the two games any way you please.

Divisional Round

Ravens @ Titans
Birds @ Cats
Eagles @ Giants
Bolts @ Steelers

Updated standings:

1. Ryan 6 (6-2)
T1. John 6 (5-3)
3. Lucy -12 (2-6)

"My support seems to be the kiss of death."

Follow up to Anatomy of an Upset

Ryan's excellent post gave a number of good reasons why we lost. The Ken Pomeroy stats reveal our porous defense combined with poor free throw shooting and rebounding equals a loss. By looking at different games, Ryan shows how we're underperforming.

I wanted to poing out some of the x's and o's reasons we lost. Strategically, BC held us out of the break in the first half and most of the second by sending as many guys as possible for offensive rebounds. By pulling down lots of first half offensive rebounds (I believe we were outrebounded but I'll have to verify) and battling for rebounds every other time, we couldn't get into our secondary break. Previously, we saw that sending a safety or two back on defense was the best way to slow our break as Kansas and Valparaiso have shown. This time, we were undone by poor defensive rebounding, leading to few opportunities for run-outs.

Next, BC's flex set offense flummoxed our defense. A basic flex set employs lots of screens, movement and passing to lose defenders or create mismatches. This is used almost exclusively against man-to-man defenses and often means medium-to-long possessions on offense. Other characteristics of the flex set are: it's easy to learn, everyone knows that they should do next, and you don't need to create your own shot to be successful (although nobody told Tyrese Rice).

If you recall BC's offensive sets, they would line up 4 men parallel to the backboard, in between the FT line and 3 pt line. Rice is the odd man out, bringing the ball up the right side of the floor. The flex set would then spring to life as O2 and O4 would set screens for each other and O3 or O5 would stay in the lane while the other drifted closer to the basket. In short, this means a lot of action taking place around the free throw line, where a player can pass off to a 3 pt shooter with relative ease or look for a man posting up down low. Mid-range shots can also open up easily as a player whose defender is tired or confused can be lost in the myriad of screens and end up taking the wrong man.

I've certainly complained about our guards' abilities to communicate and get around screens quicker. Last night, there were missed assignments galore as Rice and Sanders got good mid and long range looks through the flex set. Also, Rice hit some extremely difficult shots that were close to indefensible. Credit him for having the soft touch to hit some step back jumpers and circus shots.

My next bone to pick is with our half court trap. I may never understand why Roy didn't put his foot down at halftime (or sooner) and tell everyone to quit trapping. It felt like the BC-UNC football game, where BC curiously decided to leave Hakim Nicks in single coverage. I wondered why they would risk getting burned over and over and over and over again. Well, Roy returned the favor by allowing us to keep gambling on the half court trap. We got burned over and over and over and over again.

BC got lots of open shots because Al Skinner and Tyrese Rice did their homework. Rice knew where the help would be each time. As a consequence, our defense had to shift and recover, leaving Reggie Jackson open. Since we're known to trap after timeouts, some FTs or out of bounds plays, BC had a fair idea of when the trap was coming. We continued to gamble after halftime to much the same result.

On defense, Boston College did a good job of pulling 4 or 5 men into the lane to force bad shots and turnovers. We shot 9-25 for 2 pt FGs in the 2nd half, a testament to the strong BC defense. The Eagles were physical. Hansbrough was well covered, being forced off the block or doubled to prevent a good entry pass. Although Hansbrough made his shots, Deon Thompson and Danny Green struggled.

If you watched Deon's body language when he shot FT's, it was clear he was winded. Pushing and being pushed often tends to leave one's arms tired. His 1-6 shooting hurt our comeback chances.

Since we were behind for most of the game and didn't have our inside shots falling, we started hoisting 3's with about 7 minutes left. Wayne's 3 pt shot is still MIA. Ty, Danny and Will Graves shot 33% individually and as a whole. Roy may or may not have addressed the eagarness of our 3 pt shooting, but the Heels kept shooting away.

Finally, we didn't try to foul like a team that's trailing should. No one other than Rice was a remarkable free throw shooter, why did we not try fouling earlier? Why not send Larry Drew, Will Graves or Marcus Ginyard to foul the poorer shooters, let the crowd yell during FT attempts, and grab the rebounds? At 78-71, would it have killed us to start fouling to save time and make them earn their points? It's not like we would run out of bench players. This is my boldest assertion of this post, but I'm a bit perplexed as to why we wouldn't make them get their points 1 or 2 at a time instead of 2 or 3 at a time. With guards doing so much shooting, it's less likely to have continuation fouls where the shot counts and a FT is awarded.

In summation, BC's stratetic moves and our un-strategic moves fueled a significant defeat. I hope that our players and our coaches will realize the mistakes that were made. As a consqequence of this game, we'll see more teams following Boston College's formula for beating us. Hopefully we'll be better prepared to stop beating ourselves and resume beaing our opponents.

The Anatomy of an Upset

(Ok, I apologize for the length of this post, if you want the short and sweet version, scroll down to the "Basically" I've bolded in the second to last paragraph, it is a happy synopsis)

So, remeber how, at the beginning of the season, I remarked that the Heels have won games with several of the 4 factors. Well, since the Oregon game, they haven't exactly won any games with FG defense. In fact, excluding the Nevada game, the Heels defense has allowed 50.9% eFG over the last 5 games. And not against stop notch competition either (ORU, Evansville, Valpo, Rutgers, & BC). This is quite disconcerting, however the Heels defense is built to stand on other factors averaging turnovers on 26% of their opponents possessions in those same games (that would average about 15th in the nation for the season UNC's season average is 23.9 good for 49th).

Now, your opponents can shoot the lights out of the gym if you can limit offensive boards and cause turnovers. For the uninitiated, imagine a team that allows the opponent to make every shot they take, but force a turnover on 75% of possessions, that's as good as forcing 25% shooting while forcing no turnovers. Now, imagine they go up against a team of all point guards, who never turn the ball over. In this matchup, allowing the opponent to sink every attempt causes a huge problem because you don't end the possesions before the shots occur.

Snap back to reality. This is pretty much what UNC did (or failed to do). They were relying on steals and defensive rebounding to cover up their inability to defend shots. Well, BC does a great job taking care of the ball (17.5 TO% 25th) and offensively rebounding (40.9 OR% 16th), countering UNC's defensive strengths.

Now, what was the icing on the cake? The Heels have played defense this poorly before (as you can see above, Notre Dame posted a 119 OE in Maui). However, in this example the Heels offense simultaneously failed them. Shooting 55% from the free throw line won't win you any games (in fact it will lose you many). Also, it was UNC's worst night from the field of the season. This was likely because the turnovers weren't available to lead to layups and fast breaks. Winning on turnovers and with a fast pace is a double-edged sword (much like winning on 3 pointers, yes I'm looking at you coach K), you limit the opponent's shots, but you also give yourself 10 to 12 "bunnies" per game, bouying even the poorest shooting team's field goal percentage. All this lead to UNC's poorest offensive efficiency number of the year, but only by a hair. As you can see in the table above, UNC posted a similarly poor 104 against Kentucky, its other sub 50% eFG game, but forced enough turnover and limited offensive rebounds to win the game (handily).

Basically, if you combine the porous defense against Notre Dame, with the weak offensive output against Kentucky, you get almost identical stats to the BC loss. The Heels have played like this at various times during the year, but the other end of the floor happened to pick them up to hide such ugly performances. UNC's strength is its depth and talent, the Heels can win games in a number of different ways. But take solace, UNC fans, in the fact that a loss like last night's occurs when all of those ways fail.

On another note, and I don't want to sound cocky here, but the looming top ten matchup between UNC and Wake Forest may be more of a dud than a stud, as Wake's turnover rate is something of a bugaboo (21.1 181st), though it should be one horse race of a dud projecting at around 85 possessions. Check back for more on that game and throughout the ACC season.

If anyone's interested...

Here are the matchups for the wild card round.

Dirty Birds @ Redbirds
Colts @ Bolts
'Vens @ Fins
Philly @ Minny

This will be separate from the regular season pick'em and will probably just be for bragging rights (since I know Ryan is anxious to display his playoff pick'em prowess). Interested parties (Lucy, this includes you) should pick all four games, weighted. Four points for your most certain pick; one point for your least certain. Incorrect picks will be penalized the amount of the weight, correct picks will be awarded that amount. The lines are all under a field goal anyway, and it's winner advances at this stage, so picking winners feels better.

1. Ryan 4 (3-1)
T1. John 4 (2-2)
3. Lucy -4 (1-3)

Final NFL Pick'em Standings, 2008 Edition

1) John 17-8-2 (1.5, 18)
2) Jason 15-11-1 (0, 15.5)
3) Ryan 14-14-2 (1, 15)
4) Kevin 14-15-1 (1, 14.5)

Consensus: 13-7

John continues his run as the pick'em king, and we saw that we might not do as well in Vegas as initially suspected, going 13-7 on the year in consensus games (but that record is likely skewed by certain parties picking games they might not have chosen initially in order to catch up in the standings, thus putting fewer W's in the books).

Week 17 Spreads

First off, thanks to Cason for spot on analysis as always, if you're here for the Heels/College Basketball insight see below. Also, expect more college basketball coming up, as the player stats are up on Ken Pom, and each team begins to build a worthwhile statistical resume. There will be an extensive preview before the Tar Heels next first test, at Wake Forest Jan 11th. Onto ATS pick 'em.

This is it folks (unless John wants to give up his stranglehold and do a playoff version?)

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
@Tampa Bay	-12.5	Oakland	Sun	1:00
@Green Bay	-9.5	Detroit	Sun	1:00
@Philadelphia (JA)	-1.5	Dallas (RC)	Sun	4:15
@Minnesota (KS)	-6.5	NY Giants	Sun	1:00
@Houston	-2.5	Chicago (JA)	Sun	1:00
Carolina (RC)	-3	@New Orleans	Sun	1:00
@Atlanta	-14	St. Louis	Sun	1:00
@Cincinnati	-3	Kansas City	Sun	1:00
@Baltimore	-12	Jacksonville	Sun	4:15
Tennessee	-3	@Indianapolis	Sun	1:00
@Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cleveland	Sun	1:00
@NY Jets	-3	Miami (KS)	Sun	4:15
New England (RC)	-6.5	@Buffalo	Sun	1:00
@Arizona	-6	Seattle	Sun	4:15
@San Francisco	-3	Washington (JA)	Sun	4:15
@San Diego	-8	Denver (KS)	Sun	8:15

The AFC is also giving a point in the Super Bowl, in case you were curious. It's Christmas, so let's say due by midnight Friday, along with your opinion of playoff pick 'em.

Happy Holidays everyone.

Edit: I'm assuming your "Cats" was of the Cardiac variety, Ryan?

Valparaiso Game Review

Yours truly attended the UNC-Valparaiso game in the United Center on Saturday. Since this was one of my few chances to see the Heels, I went with 3 co-workers who graduated in '08 and '06.

Going to the United Center as a Heels fan is, I would imagine, like going to UNC if you are a big MJ fan. It's seeing someone you've followed so closely for a successful period in their lives in a totally different environment, with different fans, teammates, coaches, high tops, etc. We happened to sit right under the retired Jordan jersey in the rafters of the United Center, and within easy view of all six World Championship banners. It really makes you appreciate both the Bulls' hard work and that they won 3 titles with 2 Tar Heels and 2 Hawkeyes on their team.

The game itself was uneventful as our games go. Bobby Frasor did not start, which took all of us by surprise. Also, Valpo was the home team and took it quite seriously as they brought their band and students with them behind one of the baskets. They also had quite a few fans, even though Carolina fans outnumbered them about 3-2. Valpo also watched a lot of tape and frustrated us with their box and 1 defense. We had a very difficult time getting the ball inside via Ty, Wayne, Danny, Deon or Tyler. We settled for jumpers or turned the ball over.

On the flip side, Valpo had an effective flex set offense. Their center-forward managed to get the basket over and over because of our confusion on defense. They also hit their 3's and were winning for about the first 8 minutes. Their guards and forwards also managed to lose Wayne, Danny and Deon easily for backdoor cuts. I wasn't seriously concerned, since we made them force shots and commit turnovers, but it made me think what a team with better players could do with that defense.

At this point, I ought to mention that I have never liked Valpo for what they did to Ole Miss in 1998. Ole Miss was a 4 seed ten years ago in the NCAA tournament and the coach's son (of all the people who could hit a game winning shot, it was the coach's son!!!) hit the winning 3 pointer as time expired. Until 2005, this was the main reason my dad had such a hard time watching the NCAA tournament.

As the game wore on, we were reminded why zone defenses tend to lose their effectiveness against our team. We kept getting easy rebounds and put backs. As the fouls mounted, their big men couldn't really guard anyone for fear of fouling out.

A couple of notes:
Urule Igbavboa, Valparaiso Center, threw down a dunk on Tyler in the first half when we employed the Red Sea defense. You could tell he was still thinking about it when he kept looking up at the big screens in the first half. I could tell he was still thinking about it in the second half when he smiled after being fouled and airballed the FT.

Wayne Ellington's jump shot is still MIA.

Valpo used a safety or two on offense so we had very few fast break opportunities. They did a good job of always having at least 2 guys in the paint when we brought the ball to half court.

The force was not with Danny Green on Saturday.

All the scrubs who played got on the stat sheet one way or another.

Deon continues to be efficient, going 3-4 on FG and 6-8 on FT.

Hey, we still forced 25 To's.

The Jordan statue in front of the United Center is awesome, you need to get your picture taken there.

Standings after Week 16

1) John 16-7-1 (3, 16.5)
2) Jason 15-11-1 (1, 15.5)
3) Ryan 13-12-2 (1, 14)
4) Kevin 13-13-1 (2, 13.5)

Consensus: 13-7

Nice week for John, as he goes a perfect 3-0 to take an outright lead despite coming in after Week 1. Baltimore (win) and Pittsburgh (loss) were the consensus picks this week.

Are we picking Week 17 games? The way I see it, it actually shouldn't matter much because only two teams have clinched home field advantage - the Giants and the Titans. Those are the only two teams who can afford to rest their starters this week. Everyone else should be vying for better playoff seeding (if they're in or in the hunt for the playoffs) or playing spoiler if they've been eliminated from playoff consideration already. Games between two non-playoff teams (WAS/SF, CIN/KC, GB/DET) should still be fine as everyone's padding their stats, still, right? (Not to mention the fact that the Lions are trying to avoid going winless, and the Packers are trying to avoid being the only team to lose to the 2008 Lions.) Thoughts?

Week 16 Spreads

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
Indianapolis (KS)	-6.5	@Jacksonville	Thurs	8:15
@Dallas	-4.5	Baltimore (JA, RC)	Sat	8:15
Pittsburgh (RC, JS)	-1.5	@Tennessee	Sun	1:00
Miami (JS)	-4	@Kansas City	Sun	1:00
@New England	-8	Arizona	Sun	1:00
@Cleveland	-3	Cincinnati	Sun	1:00
San Francisco	-5.5	@St. Louis	Sun	1:00
New Orleans (JA)	-7	@Detroit	Sun	1:00
@Tampa Bay (RC)	-3.5	San Diego	Sun	1:00
NY Jets	-5	@Seattle	Sun	4:05
Houston (JS)	-7	@Oakland	Sun	4:05
@Denver	-7	Buffalo	Sun	4:05
Philadelphia	-5	@Washington	Sun	4:15
@Minnesota (KS)	-3.5	Atlanta (JA)	Sun	4:15
@NY Giants (KS)	-3	Carolina	Sun	8:15
@Chicago	-4.5	Green Bay	Mon	8:35

Thursday game should be called by 5 today if possible, everything else by 5 Friday.

Standings after Week 15

1) Jason 14-9-1 (0, 14.5)
2) John 13-7-1 (0.5, 13.5)
3) Ryan 12-10-2 (0.5, 13)
4) Kevin 11-12-1 (3, 11.5)

Consensus: 12-6

Nice week for Kevin as he went 3-0, tough week for Jason as he went 0-3. Ryan and John both limped in with a push each. Tennessee losing outright to Houston hurt all of us this week.

Week 15 Spreads

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
@Chicago	-3	New Orleans (JA)	Thurs	8:15
Green Bay	-2	@Jacksonville	Sun	1:00
@Indianapolis	-17	Detroit	Sun	1:00
Washington (RC)	-7	@Cincinnati	Sun	1:00
@Atlanta (RC)	-3	Tampa Bay	Sun	1:00
@Miami	-6.5	San Francisco	Sun	1:00
Seattle	-3	@St. Louis	Sun	1:00
@NY Jets	-7	Buffalo	Sun	1:00
Tennessee (JA/JS/RC)	-3	@Houston	Sun	1:00
San Diego (JS)	-5	@Kansas City	Sun	1:00
@Arizona (JS)	-3	Minnesota (KS)	Sun	4:05
@Baltimore	-2	Pittsburgh	Sun	4:15
@Carolina (KS)	-7.5	Denver	Sun	4:15
New England	-7	@Oakland	Sun	4:15
@Dallas (KS)	-3	NY Giants (JA)	Sun	8:15
@Philadelphia	-14	Cleveland	Mon	8:35

Picks for the Thursday game are due by 5p today; picks for everything else due by 5 on Friday.

Edit: I added the picks to the table, this should make for easier reference, and points out a couple of opposing picks for the week, and our only consolidated pick (Tennessee)

Standings after Week 14

1) Jason 14-6-1 (2, 14.5)
2) John 13-5-0 (2, 13)
3) Ryan 12-8-1 (2, 12.5)
4) Kevin 8-12-1 (1, 8.5)

Consensus: 12-5

Baltimore and Pittsburgh came out on top for us in the consensus picks, raising our total to 12-5 in games we agree on.

It will depend on how playoff scenarios shape up, but I suggest we sit out Week 17, as that week is notorious for playoff teams sitting their starters.

Also: I hope everyone saw the Antonio Bryant catch near the end of the game last night. If you haven't, do yourself a favor and look at a highlight reel somewhere. Easily one of the top plays of the NFL season.

New look UNC defense

This is a bit late, but here's a great post from X's and O's of Basketball about UNC's interior defense in the Michigan State game. It has a couple of clips that highlight our collapsing defense and how we used it to force 21 turnovers against a strong Michigan State team.

Link: http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com/2008/12/uncs-interior-defense-keys-their-fast.html

The site also breaks down a myriad of NBA, Euro, College and WNBA (yes, it still exists) games for bits of strategy and coaching. If only people other than Jay Bilas or Len Elmore read this site, we might get better commentary for our games. I regularly check it to learn what analysts mean when they say 'flex' or 'swing' offense, fundamentally sound screen hedges and all those other terms that they love to drop but never explain.

Week 14 Spreads

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
@Indianapolis	-13.5	Cincinnati	Sun	1:00
@Chicago	-6.5	Jacksonville	Sun	1:00
@Green Bay	-6	Houston	Sun	1:00
@Tennessee	-14	Cleveland	Sun	1:00
Minnesota	-9.5	@Detroit	Sun	1:00
@NY Giants	-7	Philadelphia	Sun	1:00
@New Orleans	-3	Atlanta	Sun	1:00
NY Jets	-4	@San Francisco	Sun	4:05
@Buffalo	-1	Miami	Sun	4:05
@Denver	-9	Kansas City	Sun	4:05
New England	-4.5	@Seattle	Sun	4:05
@Arizona	-14	St. Louis	Sun	4:15
@Pittsburgh	-3	Dallas	Sun	4:15
@Baltimore	-5	Washington	Sun	8:15
@Carolina	-3	Tampa Bay	Mon	8:35

Picks are due by Saturday at midnight. I took over table duties from Ryan this week; please let me know if something looks off.

Edit: Ryan has requested an extra hour to make his picks. If you want to wait until 1 or so to make yours, Jason, you're welcome to do so.

Week 13 Standings

1) Jason 12-5-1 (2, 12.5)
2) Ryan 10-7-1 (2, 10.5)
3) John 11-4-0 (3, 11)
4) Kevin 7-10-1 (2, 7.5)

Concensus: 10-4

A good week on the whole, especially after the Arizona loss for Kevin and Jason on Turkey Day. After that the only loss was Indianapolis failing (by a half point) to cover against Cleveland.

The weeks posts will be up eventually, probably later than last week. There is only one Thursday game and the Chargers are giving 9.5 or 10 points at home, to the Raiders.

Heroic Heels

Ok, maybe my alliterative title is a bit of a reach, and many of you have likely already read the story, but in case you haven't here are my two favorite versions: Tar Heel Blue Version & Watered Down Blog Post Version.

Anyways, some closing Maui thoughts:
-Really showed why UNC misses Marcus Ginyard against Notre Dame, no one can put out a hot shooter like the Heels' best defensive stopper and Kyle McAlarney was just that, 8 3's in the second half, 10 total. The Heels hadn't faced a team with such a singular scoring threat until then
-The Heels seem to be taking the form of last year's team, which is to say no form at all. They've now won games with several different factors*: forcing turnovers (UK), offensive rebounding (ND), defensive rebounding (Oregon), and free throws (UCSB)

Don't have much else to add, John? Cason? thoughts?

Just to remind everyone, KenPom is up and running again, and with only 5 or 6 games played, its fun to check out the rankings to see who is off to a hot start and what makes a team rise to the top of the KenPom ratings.

Also, I'll be posting the phenomenal Hakeem Nicks, Tar Heel Play of the Year, catch as soon as I can find it on YouTube.

Week's Games:
UNC-A, Chapel Hill, 6:30 pm Sunday, Fox Sports
Michigan State, Ford Field (Detroit, MI), 9:15 pm Wednesday, ESPN


*factors as in Dean Oliver's Four Factors: Shooting, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers, and Free Throw Attempts. Basically what any and every basketball game ever played has boiled down to.

Week 13 Spreads

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
Tennessee	-11	@Detroit	Thurs	12:30
@Dallas	-13	Seattle	Thurs	4:15
@Philadelphia	-3	Arizona	Thurs	8:15
@NY Jets	-7.5	Denver	Sun	1:00
@Buffalo	-7	San Francisco	Sun	1:00
@Tampa Bay	-3.5	New Orleans	Sun	1:00
@Green Bay	-3	Carolina	Sun	1:00
NY Giants	-3.5	@Washington	Sun	1:00
Miami	-8	@St. Louis	Sun	1:00
Baltimore	-7	@Cincinnati	Sun	1:00
Indianapolis	-4.5	@Cleveland	Sun	1:00
@San Diego	-5.5	Atlanta	Sun	4:05
@New England	-1	Pittsburgh	Sun	4:15
@Oakland	-3	Kansas City	Sun	4:15
@Minnesota	-3.5	Chicago	Sun	8:15
@Houston	-3	Jacksonville	Mon	8:35

These are up soon enough that anyone wishing to call one (or all three) of these games will have to do so by 5pm on Wednesday. This will eliminate confusion created by three different start times, and any advantage to waiting closer to kickoff to get injury news.

Edit: Sorry, wrote the paragraph for the Turkey Day games only, all Sunday games due at the usual time

Week 12 Results

1) Jason 10-4-1 (1, 10.5)
2) Ryan 8-6-1 (1, 8.5)
3) John 8-4-0 (1, 8)
4) Kevin 5-9-1 (1, 5.5)

Everyone went 1-2 on the week as our picks did foretell a big Saints win last night. One point on the week for everyone and the overall standings don't change the points listing is (Current Week, Total).

Look for the Week 13 games early, since there are multiple Thursday games.


Meanwhile, that 'fro dude on Chaminade (Update: Joel Smith) learned you don't gesture to the crowd lest you piss off Danny Green to the tune of 26 points (7 rbs, 3 asts, 2 blks in 22 mins).

Jimmy Connors shows more emotion at basketball game than tennis match

An interesting item for all tennis fans who read the blog (a.k.a. everybody): Jimmy Connors was arrested for noncompliance at the beginning of the UCSB game on Friday. He was involved in confrontation outside the arena and upon refusing to leave the spot, was arrested, booked and released.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/tennis/23sportsbriefs-CONNORSISARR_BRF.html

Since I'm sure it crossed your mind, John McEnroe views this as a challenge and will try to get arrested at the next random event he attends.

UCSB Thoughts

-We've missed Hansbrough, but since the early first half the Heels have seemed to have trouble finding him and making him the focal point of the offense (or finding the open man off the double teams he creates)

-Ellington continues to get beaten when playing man-to-man defense, and this is only UCSB

-This is the most poorly officiated game of the year thus far, simply erratic from the officials (in both directions pretty equally), I feel really bad for the Big West if these are their officials

-Ed Davis has one or two good moves, but leaves the ball open to steals too often

-When the Gauchos went on their runs in the first half, you could see a direct correlation (deftly pointed out by the announcers) to UNC's offensive rebounding

-Bobby wasted 3 consecutive possessions with forced 3's or running floaters, very uncharacteristic of him

-Ty must be winded, or just having an off night, he's 5-9 from the line (83.5% last year, meaning the odds of a 5-9 stretch are around 3.8%)

-West coast games and 10 pm tip-offs are lame

Edit: Looks like we won't be playing Arizona anymore, sadly its just another sign of their declining program (H/T Fanhouse)

The Lowdown on the ACC Coastal Mess...

...or How I learned to stop hoping and realize UNC isn't going to the ACC Championship game.

So, there are several games to be played, but as of now, it looks like there are 5 teams all with 3 losses in the ACC Coastal (assuming GT holds on to its 34-10 41-16 lead over Miami). Two of these teams play each other (UVA-VT), so the season will end with a maximum of 4 teams tied with 3 losses. Also, Georgia Tech is in the "clubhouse" as it were, playing the final week out of the ACC (@ Georgia). From the ACC's website here are the rules on deciding who plays in the ACC Championship game:

Three-Team Tie (or More):
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used.)
1. Combined head-to-head record among teams.
This one gives VA Tech/UVA winner the inside track, among the 4 teams with only 3 losses UNC and the VT/UVA winner are 2-1, GT and Miami are 1-2, also both VT and UVA beat UNC head to head (see #1 in Two-Team Tie below) sending either to the ACC Championship game
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competiton sic versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best
overall Conference (divisional and non divisional record) and
proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams
based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by draw.

Two-Team Tie:
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
I've deleted rules 2-8 because not only are they repeats of the above 2-8, but they also are moot, since all of the teams in consideration have played and none have played to a tie.

What it all means
Basically, only Virginia and Virginia Tech control their own destinies. If they both win this weekend, they play next weekend (in Blacksburg) for the Coastal Division and a ticket to the ACC Championship Game. If either team lose either game, UNC is in the driver's seat, assuming they can win out. So pull hard for the Blue Devils in Blacksburg this weekend.

Update: I found a situation that I overlooked. If VT wins the VT/UVA game, and UNC has lost a game to NC State or Duke, there would be 3 teams with 3 losses VT, Miami, GA Tech. Using tiebreak #1 these three teams are all 1-1 against themselves (VT beat GA Tech beat Miami beat VT...). Then you would move to tiebreak #2, and using that rule, since VT would have more Coastal Division wins than the other two teams (they beat UNC while both GA Tech and Miami lost to UNC) they would still move on.

Week 12 Lines

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
@Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati	Thurs	8:15
@Cleveland	-3	Houston	Sun	1:00
Buffalo	-3	@Kansas City	Sun	1:00
@Tennessee	-5.5	NY Jets	Sun	1:00
@Miami	-1.5	New England	Sun	1:00
@Dallas	-10	San Francisco	Sun	1:00
Tampa Bay	-8	@Detroit	Sun	1:00
@Baltimore	-1	Philadelphia	Sun	1:00
Chicago	-8	@St. Louis	Sun	1:00
@Jacksonville	-2	Minnesota	Sun	1:00
@Denver	-9.5	Oakland	Sun	4:05
@Atlanta	-1	Carolina	Sun	4:15
Washington	-3.5	@Seattle	Sun	4:15
NY Giants	-3	@Arizona	Sun	4:15
@San Diego	-3	Indianapolis	Sun	8:15
@New Orleans	-2.5	Green Bay	Mon	8:35

As usual calling that game will need to be done by kickoff of 5:00 pm Friday, whichever comes first

Ouch

North Carolina forward Zeller out for the season

This is just my opinion, but I don't think the Kentucky player who fouled Zeller should be held at fault for the wrist. Byron and I both agreed that it was questionable whether Zeller was actually fouled in the first place, and it didn't appear from watching the replays that the Kentucky player caused him to land funny on his wrist. Zeller was going at top speed down the floor, drew enough contact for him to miss the dunk (but certainly not enough to be an intentional foul), and thus was coming down too quickly to be able to brace his fall properly. Again, just my thoughts.

Update: From SI "Zeller had surgery Wednesday to repair fractures in two places, a recovery that normally would take 12 to 16 weeks." Also, thanks for the info from Byron, looks he is opting for surgery and that it is a pretty severe break. Just an FYI: 16 weeks is March 11th but the Heels may take the medical red-shirt route.

Week 11 Standings

Briefly, a standings update:
1) Jason 9-2-1 (3, 9.5)
2) Ryan 7-4-1 (2, 7.5)
3) John 7-2-0 (1, 7)
4) Kevin 4-7-1 (0, 4.5)

Sorry, Kevin
Collective: 7-1-0

UNC-Penn Musings

Primarily, I just want to emphasize the volume of possessions that is currently missing from UNC's offense. I feel comfortable using last season's stats, because the Heels starting five is unchanged from last season.

Hansbrough 81% minutes 27% possessions = 22% of total off possessions
Ginyard 70% minutes 14% possessions = 10% of total off possessions

That's nearly one third of the offense, not just when the starting five were on the floor, but for the entire game. Now taking that into consideration, am I terribly concerned we settled for jump shots all game? No.

All things considered the freshmen looked good. They made some silly mistakes that should be eliminated by mid-December, such as Zeller missing a cut Lawson expected him to make and Ed Davis throwing away fast break outlet pass. On the plus side, Ed Davis is a monster on the glass (see below), Zeller has some slick range on his jumper, and I really like Larry Drew's defensive intensity against dribble penetration (were you watching Wayne?). Some things to look out for in both the short and long term, does Zeller's start Saturday mean he'll be the first big man off the bench (behind Danny of course)? I was under the assumption that Ed Davis would fill that role, but it could have been that Coach Williams thinks that Zeller's strengths (jumper with range, average rebounding) compliment Thompson better than Davis' do. Also, watch Larry Drew's progression. He is in a position similar to that of Quentin Thomas, a freshman (QT/Drew) with an established starter ahead of him (Felton/Lawson) and a star recruit nipping at his heels (Lawson/Dexter Strickland). Will Drew be a contributor this season and a starter in the future, or will he simply warm the seat through next December when Strickland assumes the mantle of the next "faster with the ball" Roy Williams point guard?

Negatives
Ok, we'll go with the negatives first. Penn shot the ball way too well, nearly 50% eFG is too high for a team that needs to up the defense to win more games. Hopefully Marcus Ginyard can help out in this department, along with better teamwork as the year progresses. Also, way way way way too many threes. The team took an average of 22% of its field goals from behind the arc last year, against Penn that number ballooned to 36%. Hopefully the return of Hansbrough will help to refocus the offense inside the paint, where it belongs.

Positives
Without Tyler, the offensive rebounding did not suffer. The Heels rebounded 37% of their own misses a notch below the 42% average. Tyler returning should improve that number, both in talent level, and ideally in taking more inside shots and shooting a better percentage from the field. Helping in the cause was Ed Davis, with 4 offensive rebounds (out of 14 total boards) in only 22 minutes, a monstrous 25 OR%. Also, though jump shots and threes were the preferred method of scoring, they did come as a result of good ball movement (or friendly score keeping). 78% of the made field goals were assisted, up from only 50% last year. Lastly, Danny Green has picked up right where he left off filling the stat sheet from corner to corner: 5-7 FG, 2-4 3FG, 12 Pts, 4 Asts, 3 Stls, 4 Rbs (1 OR), and 0 TO's. Don't worry Danny, the blocks will come.

Next Up: UK, @Chapel Hill, Tues Nov 18, 9:00 pm, ESPN

Liveblog Cason?

Despite John's being logged in to my computer during the Panthers game, Ryan was the author of this post, sheesh

Week 11 Spreads

Week 11 means, No More Bye Weeks!!!! We've got a full slate of 16 games to choose from this week, and a Thursday game to boot. As usual, a Thursday pick should be in by game time, the rest can wait until 5:00 Friday:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Day	Time
@New England	-3.5	NY Jets	Thurs	8:15
@Atlanta	-6	Denver	Sun	1:00
@Miami	-10.5	Oakland	Sun	1:00
@NY Giants	-6.5	Baltimore	Sun	1:00
@Indianapolis	-8	Houston	Sun	1:00
@Green Bay	-4	Chicago	Sun	1:00
Philadelphia	-9	@Cincinnati	Sun	1:00
New Orleans	-5.5	@Kansas City	Sun	1:00
@Carolina	-14.5	Detroit	Sun	1:00
@Tampa Bay	-3.5	Minnesota	Sun	1:00
@San Francisco	-6	St. Louis	Sun	4:05
Arizona	-3	@Seattle	Sun	4:05
Tennessee	-3	@Jacksonville	Sun	4:15
@Pittsburgh	-4	San Diego	Sun	4:15
Dallas	-1.5	@Washington	Sun	8:15
@Buffalo	-5.5	Cleveland	Mon	8:35

Ooooooh, a Table!!!! (You better appreciate it...)

After the 4 pm 8 pm Sunday games:
Jason 3-0
Ryan 2-1
John 1-2
Kevin 0-3

Sunday Pick Update

Here are the standings after Sunday's games, Kevin is still waiting on the results of tomorrow's Arizona/SanFran contest (he picked Arizona giving 9.5 points). Carolina made us sweat out its 17-6 victory, while the Ravens coasted to an easy victory for everyone (hey Vegas, get it together, the Ravens are a good football team). The Titans were also a winner, while the Falcons more than held up to their 1 point line.

1) Jason 6-2-1 (3, 6.5)
2) John 6-0-0 (3, 6)
3) Ryan 5-3-1 (3, 5.5)
4) Kevin 4-4-1 (1, 4.5)

I'll adjust Kevin's totals tomorrow, a correct pick would bring him into a tie for 3rd. The Cardinals got the win, but failed to cover the 9.5 point spread (29-24). Next week's lines should be up some time on Wednesday.


Edit: Just an FYI, but as a group we're 5-1-0 on picks more than one of us agree on (with none of us dissenting), of that Baltimore has been a big boost, 2-0-0 in 3 weeks.

Lee Pace is the man

As I noted in my last post, I intended to email the Extra Points mailbag to find out the last time we wore navy jerseys at home. I emailed him at 12:57 with my question, and he just answered my question at 2:15. Awesome turnaround time. I have no idea if my question will make it onto the Mailbag article he writes weekly, but that's still beyond excellent response time. I've spent thousands at Marriotts and never gotten feedback to my questions this quickly, even when I email the manager.

Lee Pace, consider this your shoutout. You earned it. I would also encourage anyone to email Mr Pace if you have any obscure questions about our football program.

PS - Here's the contents of my email:

Lee,
When was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina Blue jerseys at home like on Saturday? Have we worn navy or white at home for some special reason before?

Cason Dwyer, ‘07
Madison, WI

Response:

We haven't worn navy jerseys home or away since the final game of the 1959 season.

LP

It looks like we broke out the navy jerseys for the first time in almost 50 years. Good call, Butch.

Ramblin Wreck Wrap

Strong win for the Heels today over Ga Tech, 28-7. Once again, we were outgained yet won comfortably because our opponents insist upon turning the ball over. My brother from a different mother, Jonathan Dwyer, rushed for 157 yards. However, over half of the yards came from an 85 yd touchdown run late in the 4th quarter.

Cam Sexton continues to do everything he can to retain his job as game manager by throwing for a piddly 100 yds and a not-so-piddly 2 TDs. I'm sure that Ga Tech put about 5 guys on Hakeem Nicks after seeing what happened against BC so I will let it slide.

Also, for our readers who are on the Thorpe or Bednarik award selection committees, Trimane Goddard has 5 interceptions so far this season.

One question I have is why were we wearing our road unis at home today. Tech wore white, so what gives with the navy jerseys?


Edit: Trimane Goddard has 6 interceptions this season. Bednarik and Thorpe voters, please take note. I also submitting a mailbag question for Adam Lucas: when was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina blue jerseys at home?

Week 10 Lines

(sans Indy-Pitt)

Favorite Line Underdog
Jacksonville -6.5 @Detroit
Tennessee -3 @Chicago
@New England -4 Buffalo
@Atlanta -1 New Orleans
@NY Jets -8 St. Louis
@Miami -9 Seattle
@Minnesota -2.5 Green Bay
Carolina -9 @Oakland
@San Diego -15 Kansas City
@Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
Baltimore PK @Houston
@Arizona -9.5 San Francisco

Like I said, I'll post Indy-Pitt when at least 3 casinos set their line for the game, but for estimation I'd guess -3 or -4 Pittsburgh

Thursday Game!

Just to let everyone know, there is a Thursday game this week, here is the line:

@Cleveland -3 Denver

Most of the lines are up, I'll post them soon, but I'd like to wait to see what Indy-Pittsburgh looks like (none of the casinos are opening it for betting until Big Ben's status is known). I'd venture a guess that if Big Ben goes, the Steelers (at home) will be favored by 4.

If you want to call this game, post by kickoff, if you're curious about the rest of the lines, I usually average these.

What a difference a week makes

With the added competition on board, everyone stepped up their game. 3 of us nailed our 3 team parlays for perfect 3-0 records, while I missed out on the GB/Tenn game (damn Titans, 7-0 ATS, WTF), leaving myself at 2-1 on the week:

1t) Jason 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
1t) Kevin 3-2-1 (3.5 pts)
3) John 3-0-0 (3 pts)
4) Ryan 2-3-1 (2.5 pts)

Winning bets included Philly, Baltimore (u), Arizona, Miami (u), Minny, NY Jets (u), and Green Bay (u)

Week 9 Lines

Via the comments from week 8, we all ended up at 0-2-1, losing bets were placed on Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and San Fran while we all pushed the New England/St Louis game (but with different bets).

Favorite Line Underdog
@Minnesota -4.5 Houston
Jacksonville -7.5 @Cincinnati
Tampa Bay -8 @Kansas City
@Cleveland -2 Baltimore
@Buffalo -5.5 NY Jets
Arizona -3 @St. Louis
@Chicago -13 Detroit
@Tennessee -5.5 Green Bay
@Denver -3 Miami
Atlanta -3 @Oakland
@NY Giants -8 Dallas
Philadelphia -7 @Seattle
@Indy -5.5 New England
@Washington -2 Pittsburgh

In response to Ryan

There hasn't been much talk of the latest episode of 'As the Favre Turns.' There's been no mention of it around the water cooler here at work. I recall it was a topic on local sports talk radio, but the hosts didn't really get angry after they thought about it.

Remember, it's Favre talking THE LIONS about the Packers playbook, not the Bears or Vikings. The hosts felt that Brett was just trying to give the Lions a chance the next time around. The first time these two played, in Detroit, the Packers scored 3 TDs in like 2 seconds to put a game that was close out of reach. I'll bet Brett just felt sorry for the Lions.

People are talking about how they are relieved that the Badgers finally won a Big 10 game on Saturday. Things were starting to look ugly for Bucky before they got their act together against the Fightin' Zooks.

In other news, it snowed yesterday. The Farmer's Almanac predicts 140 in. of snow for us. I can't wait.

Week 8 Lines

Oakland
Baltimore -7

San Diego -3
New Orleans

Kansas City
New York Jets -13.5

Buffalo -1.5
Miami

Tampa
Dallas -2.5

Atlanta
Philadelphia -9

St Louis
NE -7

Arizona
Carolina -4

Washington -7.5
Detroit

Cleveland
Jacksonville -7

New York Giants
Pittsburgh -3

Seattle
SF -5

Cincy
Houston -9.5

Indy
Tennessee -4

Taking the Temperature of Wisconsin

Not sure if you've read this yet. Basically it seems to be the wrapping up of a strange story decidedly not dominating the sports news cycle (thanks, ESPN), about Brett Favre talking to Lions staff about preparing for playing the Packers in week 2. Brett initially denied the story, ESPN refused to run it because they heard it was bogus (and they have a huge man-crush on Brett Farve, not to mention an interest in not seeing his image tarnished). My main question for Cason is what does it feel like in Packer-town? I don't know any huge Packer fans, but I can't think of a player more automatically linked to a team over the past 15+ years than Favre is to the Packers, so its hard for me to find an equivalent breech of sports ethics (if only for the magnitude of Favre/Packers) than this. Is everyone up in arms, or is it all quiet on the western front (of Lake Michigan)?

UNC-Texas?

Just saw this on Fanhouse and thought I'd pass it along. Apparently UNC officials are in talks with Jerry Jones' people to schedule a college basketball game for the 2009-2010 season in the new Cowboys stadium. While this does symbolize moving more and more towards stupid non-basketball arenas hosting college basketball games, placing money making ahead of fan experience, something I'm obviously not happy about, it also shows that we might be going to play Texas in a semi-away game next year, and a harder schedule is something I'm always excited about.

Edit: I have since read that a deal has been struck, UNC will go to the new Texas Stadium Jerry Jones Coliseum to play Texas, with Texas returning the favor for a semi-away game in Greensboro for 2010-2011.

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Brandon Tate is out for the year with a torn ACL and MCL. Hopefully he will recover from this week's upcoming surgery in time for NFL draft evaluations. This is a bad break for the Heels now that we are finding ourselves on national TV more often.

I know Hakeem Nicks (Brad Nessler, please note that it's 'Nicks' and not 'Hicks') can pick up the slack, but Brooks Foster needs to be ready to hold onto the ball. You too, Cooter. I have not received any information about our TE, Zach Pinalto, who was injured Saturday.

Link: http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/101308aad.html

LIVE BLOG!

liveblog?

What do Rashad McCants and Reggie Bush have in common?

So, here it is, the days between the Thursday night opening game and the rest of the NFL's smorgasbord of Sunday games. Its sorta like the brief interlude of breakfast on Christmas morning, right after you've already gone through your stocking, but before you settle in to open your wrapped presents and visit the relatives. Anyways, I'm going to use this brief interlude to introduce our new NFL game here at tfsb. So, here are the rules (I think, at least, assuming Cason and John buy in).

• Every week we'll each pick 1 RB, 1 WR, and 1 QB

• For each player that gain or throw for more than 100/300 yards, we'll earn a point

• The first 3 weeks we'll rotate the picking order

• From there we'll award the spots in inverse order of standings (Or maybe rotate through even turns with a sympathy "last place" week thrown in?)
  

• Each person can only pick any given player twice (thrice?) during the season

Alright, let's now wait for input from John and Cason, and see where we stand. Ideally, this will work, and we'll "draft" our 3 man teams before Sunday.

Now, onto the actual title of the post, The Big Lead is reporting some news about our old friend Rashad McCants is appearing at public events with one of the Kardashian sisters (Khloe, in case you're keeping track). Maybe he should be focused on upholding the UNC legacy in the pros or working hard to make sure he gets the best of his first post-rookie FA deal. Nah, shouldn't be an issue, you can just come back here and hang out with Reyshawn (saw him at Target last weekend).

Heels' 08-09 Schedule Announced

Looks like I'll be in the Windy City on Dec 20th. Unfortunately, Detroit is too far to drive for the MSU game, but hopefully we'll play two more games there this coming season....

2008-2009 Mens's Basketball Schedule:
http://northcarolina.scout.com/3/bbschedule.html

Hello? Is this thing on?

Wow, how loyal of google/blogspot to keep the blog up and running while John and I were slumbering through the dog days of August and the booooring second half of the baseball season. The sports scene is picking up again, and its time to put the blog back in its regular rotation. The return of NFL action and college basketball being just around the corner should have John and I posting at near '06 levels (ah, the blog honeymoon years). Keeping up the analogy, John and I have decided to add a new "partner" to the mix, we welcome one time guest poster and long time friend Cason Dwyer to the fold. Cason will help us nail down the inside scoop on how the Packers look without Brett Favre for the first time since Bush was in office I was in Kindergarten. We also need to make a decision about what NFL contest we'd like to pursue this year. Pick 'em is so 2 years ago, I'm thinking we'll mix it up with one of those "pick the 100 yd rusher/reciever" games like they play on the Sunday NFL pregame shows (but a good showing for Pick 'em in the comments would go a long way to granting it a stay of execution for the season).

Ok, enough blabbering, the real motive for my posting (other than to kickoff the blog season) is to link to the great AA piece:

"grab onto those giant condor-like wings arms and ride....RIDE....young Michael Phelps to ratings gold, NBC!"

NBC has decided to do just that, hoping to glean what ratings they can from the greatest Olympian of all time they've picked up several swimming world and US championships. Will these events be even half as popular as the Olympics? My money's on no, but only time will tell, you never know how many "Phelps Phans" there are out there.

On another note, if you enjoy long conversations about the arbitrary rules and negotiations that surround MLB's mid-June draft, be sure to read this interview with Nationals' GM Jim Bowden about the attempted signing of #9 overall pick Aaron Crow (SP Missouri).

Edit: As of today's date (August 21st) all Tar Heel early entrants to the NBA Draft have elected to return to school. The Heels only underclassman loss is Alex Stepheson who is transferring to USC to be closer to his family and ailing father. We regret the error and the lack of immediate updated coverage and hope none of our loyal readers were confused (or miffed).

Reassessing the Heels

Alright, a lot has happened since we last spoke, and we mainly have Tywon Lawson to thank for that, though to be fair Danny Green hasn't operated completely within his character either. So, to take a look at the situations of the 3 draft declared Heels right at the cusp of the June 16th deadline.

Ty Lawson - Gone, see you later, it was nice knowing you, kiss him goodbye. Ty's stock, as always, was the highest of the three, and it looks as if he has the top 20 spot he said he'd stay in the draft for. On top of that, even if he slips, the teams rumored to be targeting him are New Orleans and San Antonio, which both make for a pretty good gig.

Wayne Ellington - Wayne's stock is, reportedly, borderline first round. However, he doesn't appear to be picked anywhere in the draft at either nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com. I have to assume they're thinking Wayne knows he isn't guaranteed a first round choice (thus a contract), and will be headed back to school. That is what I fully expect Wayne to do, especially given his financial situation.

Danny Green - Danny is the wild card of the bunch. He's got Wayne's draft stock (or worse) but seems to have Ty's mentality for getting out of school ASAP. This creates a problem, as if he stays in the draft he'll likely end up floating around the NBDL or Europe. Not that there is anything wrong with that, many productive college players end up in one of those two venues, however, given the shot he'd have at another Final Four run, I don't know why he'd pass that up, other than the financial need of his family. I really can't say here, I could see him staying in the draft, but it would seem to be better for all parties if he stayed all four years.

Now, lets take a moment to look at the 08-09 Heels:

PG Frasor
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson

Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis, F Alex Stepheson

Not quite the prohibitive title favorites everyone was crowning after the Final Four, but definitely a deep, talented, experienced squad who is well-poised to defend their ACC title. The interesting bit is, would potentially returning Danny Green see the starting lineup?

Wow

The seemingly least likely scenario has come true, Ellington and Lawson will test the waters, Tyler is here to stay.

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/749667.html

Projected UNC Lineup:

PG Frasor
SG Ginyard
SF Green
PF Hansbrough
C Thompson

Bench: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Alex Stepheson, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis

Obviously Lawson/Ellington would resume their posts at the guard spots were they to return. Looks like Will Graves is going to have to step it up if not, as the Heels' backcourt depth is suddenly nonexistent.

Rumor Mongering

I don't know how many people actually read the blog this time of year, what with the NFL off-season and NCAA quieting down, but this is from AOL Fanhouse:

Tyler Hansbrough to enter NBA Draft

He's apparently not going to hire an agent, so he could come back, but just wants to go to the camps and see if he can help his draft stock any. I'd say now (per DraftExpress and NBADraft.net) that he's in the mid-20's. I'd guess that if he plays his way into the lottery, he'd stay, but anything short of that he'll return as he could just go pro as a senior with the same results. This is easily the smart move, since you can "test the waters" once and come back, and he isn't testing the waters next year, its for real. Also, apparently Lawson is coming back as well. He's got a similar draft position to Tyler's, around 20, and has a myriad of PGs ahead of him. If he doesn't play any better next year he'll improve his stock just by the lack of PG's in the draft.

Projected UNC Lineup:
PG Lawson
SG Ellington
SF Ginyard
PF Stepheson (Hansbrough?)
C Thompson

Bench: G Bobby Frasor, G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Danny Green, F Tyler Zeller, F Ed Davis

Reliving Georgetown...

..but this time in reverse. There are some eery similarities between the two games, namely scoring droughts. In the Kansas game, the UNC offense finished the first half on an awful scoring drought, whereas in the Georgetown game the drought took place to finish the game and carried into overtime. There were a number of reasons for the overall offensive inefficiency. The Jayhawks didn't miss many shots (at least outside of their 2nd half drought) and played excellent transition defense, eliminating the Heels #1 and #2 options, the primary and secondary breaks. Then there was the smothering Kansas defense in the halfcourt which forced 18 turnovers (23.1%) and recorded 9 blocks (another 20.9%). Finally the Heels only got 29.5% of their own misses, down for their average 42%, and which is made all the more important by the fact that a poor eFG% (39.5%) and thus about 6 or 8 extra OR opportunities. Speaking of Effective Field Goal Percentage, in the past two years, 77 games, the Heels have shot under 40% eFG twice, against Georgetown in 2007 and against Kansas in 2008. Not that the Kansas defense doesn't deserve all the praise in the world for giving the Heels tough looks, but the Heels missed both dumb contested shots and a few shots I've seen them make all season.

Pouring out the Deon Thompson Haterade

Alright, in light of the recent work of Ken Pomeroy, its time to revisit some of our past work here at TFSB. In this article, Ken points out how wrong he was doubting Deon Thompson. Now, earlier in the season I looked at the main two big men filling the pterodactyl-sized hole at the 4-spot in the Heels' lineup. Also, as many of you who have taken in a game with me know, I wasn't Deon's biggest fan then. But, as you will see below, Deon Thompson has really stepped it up this year, despite the claims of idiot columnists over at SI. Ok, well, idiot is a strong word, but if KenPom has put that same prior thought in with his top 5 blunders of the year perhaps is time we stopped lamenting the loss of Brandan Wright and begun celebrating a great 4-year big man who would be getting way more props if not for this kid.





Wow, what a difference a year makes. Let's get the main complaints out of the way first: yes, Deon doesn't shoot 65% eFG (well, essentially FG% since they're big men) and his offensive rating isn't 119, but honestly, whose is? The offense isn't the issue since Tyler, Ty and Wayne have improved drastically in that category (they're all +5, from 115/116/120 to 121/124/126). Deon's ORtg has improved in its own right, from 93 to 100, mostly thanks to dropping the TORate to near Wright-ian levels (the mid teens), almost doubling his free throw rate (14 to 25), and improving his FT% (20 to 58). That's right, Deon now shoots free throws better than even Brandan Wright!! Now for the impressive part: his rebounding numbers have stayed constant, even through tougher competition, his assist rate has slightly improved, and his block rate has shot up to Brandan Wright-like levels. Ladies and gentlemen, for all intents and purposes, the Heels have replaced Brandan Wright, and it only took Deon a year to catch on. To revisit the Alex situation, he has improved very similarly to Deon, raising his ORtg a similar 7 points, dropping the TORate about 5 as well. The only problem is he's now eerily similar to the December version of Deon Thompson, while Deon is a whole new player.