Thursday, March 8

The Short List (and other pre-break ramblings)

OK, John and I earlier went over an idea that involved creating a list of teams we feel confident in saying contains the future 2007 NCAA Champion (and no, its not 336 teams long, or 65 teams long). The best idea we had was to take teams in the top 20 OE AND DE, since we feel both are vital to creating a winning team (sorry Duke, you need both to go on that special 6 game win streak). WARNING STATS EXPLATION AHEAD, IF YOU'RE AFRAID, JUST SKIP TO THE LIST; Using the top 20/336 which translates to 6% (or 94th percentile), the cutoff for OE is 116.4 (22nd) and DE is 90.0 (26th). I am using the Mean and SD to determine a z-score because it is a more fair way than just taking the top 20, especially if OE or DE (turns out) is easier to be good at (read, more widely distributed).

Teams OE/DE (both top 6%)
UNC 1/2
Kansas 15/1
A&M 6/8
Florida 5/15
OhioSt 7/13
G'town 3/22 (close one)
Wisc 18/5 (void, no Butch)
UCLA 14/9 (first skip here, Duke is 9 but misses the list w/37OE)
Maryland 21/11 (Memphis is a near miss 23OE)
GATech 13/25

Now, teams that would make a 6/10 rule
Duke, Memphis, Pitt, L'ville, 'Nova (how are they #9 in the Big East?)

Ok, look at that list, look at it hard, I will give you 5:1 odds AGAINST any team on that list winning it all, that's 5 teams, all top 25, and if ANY win it, I'd pay 10 bucks and all you have to do is give me 2. And it would be like taking candy from a baby.

Now, whom should you watch out for? Here is a list of ESPN determined "locks" (and Joe Lunardi is right 63 out of 65 times) who you should think twice before moving into the next round, did I say twice? I meant TEN TIMES, ie, if they're the 2 seed, GO WITH BELMONT.

Nevada (66) - um, yeah, assuming they get in (WAC win or not), they'll be hard pressed to win a game
Texas Tech (58) - not even Bobby Knight magic can salvage this team, they should be 1 and done
UNLV (56) - John's favorite "lock"
BYU (53) - suprising 1 seed in the MWC
UVA (45) - guard play could carry them a few games into March Madness
Vandy (49) - unless they play Florida, in Nashville
USC (41) - I was suprised to see this team a "lock", what does thier NonConf schedule look like again?
OverratedU (42) - the name says it all folks
BC (40) - depth may catch up to them by game 2
Stanford (54) - sorry John, I hope Chad Ford isn't right about Lopez
Missouri St (43) - doubtful to be in at this juncture, but if they slip in don't wager too much on them

In other news: Willis McGahee is a Raven for 2 3rds and a 7th (WTF?)

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