I would normally write a few paragraphs, but sometimes pictures really are worth a thousand words. I've explained this style of graph several times, but I don't think I need to even introduce it to know that it both confirms everything anyone watching the game saw as well as the main reason the Heels didn't "steal anyone's brownies" last night:
I watched the game with Cason (as much as one can from two and a half hours away). We took a number of things away from this game, mainly that the defensive team that showed up against UNLV apparently isn't here to stay. Maybe UNLV has more of an individual style of offense, and when you have a talented set of players you can defend an offense of individuals. Last night UVA showed (much as ECU did in December) that UNC has a ways to go in the team defense/communication area.
From a more broad point of view, it doesn't really do significant damage to this team to lose this game. If UVA plays the remainder of the season to their current KenPom rating they'll be an NCAA tournament team. Assuming the ACC has 5 or 6 tournament teams I would only predict UNC wins half of those road games if they're lucky. What stuck in my craw more during last night's game was the fact that it was one UNC could have won, even playing some poor basketball in spots. Reggie Bullock played so well that it was 51-50 late in the second half, but the same team defense issues and poor offensive decisions appeared and prevented the Tar Heels from winning their ACC opener. I am willing to bet that (some time in late February) everyone is going to wish UNC had taken advantage of this opportunity and won a winnable game, largely because if this team doesn't improve its consistency it will take every win they can find to make the NCAA tournament.
$`Four Factors`
OPP NAME ORTG perEFG perORB FTR TORATE
1 UVA Total 0.83 0.42 0.22 0.33 0.19
2 UVA oppTotals 0.97 0.53 0.16 0.37 0.17
$`Last Game`
POSS ORTG USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
Bullock 9 2.44 0.18 1.00 0.78 0.67 0.07 0.12 1.02 0.44 1.00 0.07 0.00
McAdoo 15 0.67 0.32 0.50 0.44 NaN 0.00 0.30 0.46 0.44 0.44 0.00 0.27
Hubert 3 1.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 NaN 0.00 0.13 0.52 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00
Strickland 7 0.57 0.16 NaN 0.29 NaN 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.29 0.23 0.00
Paige 9 0.22 0.20 NaN 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.22
James 4 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.57 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.50
Hairston 10 0.80 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.20 0.05 0.24 0.39 0.33 0.39 0.19 0.10
Johnson 2 1.00 0.13 NaN 0.50 NaN 0.11 0.12 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.21 0.50
McDonald 5 0.00 0.21 NaN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40
Tokoto 2 0.50 0.18 0.50 0.00 NaN 0.17 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davis NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Simmons NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 63 0.83 1.00 0.53 0.37 0.29 0.22 0.87 0.44 0.33 0.42 0.47 0.19
oppTotals 63 0.97 1.00 0.50 0.45 0.57 0.16 0.75 0.54 0.37 0.53 0.64 0.17
$`Season Totals`
NAME POSS ORTG USG perFTM perFGM perFGM.3 perORB perDRB perTS FTR perEFG ARATE TORATE
1 Bullock 123 1.46 0.18 0.86 0.51 0.49 0.07 0.13 0.67 0.17 0.64 0.15 0.11
2 McAdoo 213 0.95 0.28 0.61 0.46 NaN 0.09 0.18 0.50 0.38 0.46 0.06 0.21
3 Hubert 19 0.95 0.06 0.18 0.53 NaN 0.07 0.11 0.45 0.73 0.53 0.02 0.53
4 Strickland 138 0.91 0.20 0.59 0.46 0.22 0.02 0.07 0.51 0.42 0.48 0.22 0.15
5 Paige 135 0.67 0.21 0.77 0.34 0.28 0.01 0.07 0.43 0.13 0.40 0.21 0.24
6 James 38 1.13 0.11 0.56 0.50 NaN 0.10 0.17 0.52 0.47 0.50 0.03 0.39
7 Hairston 138 1.14 0.29 0.83 0.38 0.33 0.10 0.13 0.53 0.32 0.48 0.10 0.11
8 Johnson 89 1.33 0.25 0.50 0.63 NaN 0.09 0.24 0.63 0.13 0.63 0.03 0.12
9 McDonald 111 1.06 0.23 0.69 0.40 0.43 0.05 0.06 0.54 0.16 0.52 0.11 0.12
10 Tokoto 50 1.14 0.18 0.36 0.53 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.52 0.49 0.54 0.09 0.24
11 Davis 6 1.33 0.05 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.03 1.39 1.00 1.50 0.41 0.50
12 Simmons 7 2.29 0.07 1.00 0.43 NaN 0.18 0.19 0.51 0.29 0.43 0.05 0.14
13 Total 1059 1.08 1.00 0.64 0.45 0.37 0.39 0.68 0.53 0.28 0.51 0.61 0.19
14 oppTotal 1059 0.92 1.00 0.65 0.39 0.35 0.30 0.62 0.48 0.28 0.45 0.51 0.21
Current Prediction (Math-based, sorry Bethy)
UNC 70, Miami 69
Win Prob 53%, Pace 70
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