Just wanted to try something out. Maybe not all of you heard, but KenPom is going all big time on us, and charging for a subscription. Personally, I plan on buying in, but I wanted to share some of the important stuff with y'all. So, after each UNC game I'll email out the Game Plan line (the 4 Factor Summary) to those parties interested, or at least my estimation of that list. The line is below, as a quick recap the numbers from left to right are Efficiency, effective Field Goal Percentage (where FGs are weighted by point value), Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebound Percentage and Free Throw Rate.
Anyways, each game I'm going to throw in a Favorite and Not Favorite Number. As the season progresses I might start to get a little fancier, for example a player's usage in a given game or something else homebrewed.
Favorite - 51.0% eFG, pretty decent shooting night, and I'd have to say I felt the shots weren't dropping. There seemed to be a lot of good shot selection that was unrewarded, but I'm not sure how to go about confirming this without some sort of game charting system. Anyways, we didn't lose any game in which we shot 51.0 or greater eFG last year, though we came close in the ACC tourney playing Miami (and turning the ball over on nearly 1/3 of our possessions)
Not Favorite - 45.9 OR% (against), pretty easy to guess this one, as I texted Cason seeing Watts really drove me crazy. He is a great energy guy who has his place, but this isn't last year and his place really can't be the 4 spot. We were playing the defensive boards pretty poorly with Zeller, and then we sent Watts in to try and box out Draymond Green, wtf Roy. Hopefully he realized he has 3 freshmen who can rebound better (well, maybe, we'll see about Simmons). It would be neat to break down the first half's runs (6-0 UNC, 15-2 MSU, rest of half ~24-5 UNC) with the number of rebounds.
Alright, in general I was pleased with UNC's play, but I really couldn't tell if it was solid defense or a Spartan team that just can't shoot. It will be nice to see as the season progresses, also worth noting that despite the OR%, the 79 Defensive Efficiency posted would have been good for 4th on the season last year, and we only held 2 BCS teams that low: Rutgers and BC.
Sorry for the lapse, college basketball is back (if you happened not to notice)
Name Wk8-Wk9-Tot Ryan....5-6-55 Jason...5-5-54 Alex....5-9-49 John....6-4-48 Kevin...3-2-44
Thoughts on FIU: Larry Drew II looks good, but I can't tell if it is because his back ups look so bad. The big men are just that, big, and its a deep team. But, for the 2 minutes that only freshmen were on the floor it looked pretty bad.
This is as of Sunday night, but we all pick the two remaining games the same way (Atlanta -3 & Denver +3.5). Everyone will remain in the cumulative order shown, but we may all pick up some W's between now and week 7.
Also, this week we tried picking parlays, and we have all struck out to this point. Incorrect parlay picks include Steelers (Alex), Vikings (Kevin, Ryan), Jets (Kevin), Lions (Jason), and Eagles (John). We're 3-1 in consensus picks, wins: Pats, Falcons and Broncos and the Eagles dropping the ball.
kevin & john have pitt (-6.5), we all have minny (-3.5), so, john and kevin will pick up one and we'll all stay in stride monday night. i notably whiffed on DET, NYJ, STL, and SEA who either everyone else, or only one other person missed.
So I figured that week 5 of the college football season was a great time to show everybody this NBA Training Camp footage. I found this playing on the NBA TV channel, and it's a great insight into the kinds of things coaches go over when preparing their teams for the season. Here's Nuggets coach George Karl directing rookie Ty Lawson (known only as "Rook") about eschewing the open three in favor of driving to the basket. He also teaches him about decision making on the break and when to pass up shorter shots. Starts at around the 9:00 mark, in case you don't want to watch the whole thing.
There's also an excellent video on the Lakers that runs just as long. It's available here. And yes, they do discuss Adam Morrison's future and how much less of a douche Sasha Vujacic is now that he cut his hair.
Time for another year of Pick'em! I love Pick'em. We'll be picking every game this season from Week 2 onward, so here are the spreads for this week.
Oakland @ Kansas City (-3) Houston @ Tennessee (-7) New England (-4) @ New York Jets Cincinnati @ Green Bay (-9) Minnesota (-10) @ Detroit New Orleans @ Philadelphia (PICK'EM) Carolina @ Atlanta (-6) St. Louis @ Washington (-9.5) Arizona @ Jacksonville (-3) Seattle @ San Francisco (-1.5) Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (-5) Cleveland @ Denver (-3) Baltimore @ San Diego (-3) Pittsburgh (-3) @ Chicago New York Giants @ Dallas (-3) Indianapolis (-3) @ Miami
Since we didn't finalize the format until late this week, picks are due before 11AM Sunday. Please leave a comment with your picks for the week on the post with the spreads; Ryan will record your picks and then approve the comment when everyone's picks are in (so everyone may then see who picked whom).
As a special to Thrice Fortnight, I'm posting my write-up of my trip to Tottenham Hotspur Football Club (the Spurs) as part of my visit to London. Since we got obscenely low airfare (direct from Raleigh, which if you've ever traveled extensively, you know is a luxury in-and-of-itself), Dad took me for my birthday. I realized that if I was going to spend money on something big, I could either see this game or Shakespeare's Troilus & Cressida at the Globe. I'm not married, so Shakespeare was out. The Spurs faced Birmingham City, a freshly promoted club who was in the top half of the rankings and had only given up one goal in three prior games. We were fortunate that Birmingham City was not a team that most fans considered a powerhouse, otherwise tickets would not have been available. As it were, there were a decent number of tickets available for purchase so I snapped up a pair that ended up being very good. The alternative would have been trying to buy them off 'touts' (scalpers) and since I had no idea whether you needed a club membership to get in with tickets from touts, I went the safe route and booked tickets online a few days before we left.
Since the game was in North London, we took the train to White Hart Lane Station and found our way to the ticket office. Other than the food and merchandise carts, you wouldn't know there was a match about to start. I found this a little odd because I'd always read about the fanaticism of the fans all over the Prem. No saturation of signage and neon. After getting through the line for our tickets, we walked around to our gate, and made it through the narrow entrance, noting that we were the only ones who were getting in, and the game had only just started. I should say that the entry way past the ticket takers is so narrow that I could not fit walking straight through and had to walk in sideways. Maybe this was to prevent any rushes into the stadium or they just wanted to keep Diego Maradona out, both laudable goals. Drew Brees would have a difficult time threading a pass in there. I forgot to take a picture because we were hurrying to get to our seats.
We discovered that we were the only people who weren't in our seats in the entire section (when was the last time you went to a pro or college anything and that happened?). We were on roughly the 35 or 40 yd line and the seats were right on top of the field, which was nicer than Bryan Park, like plush green carpet. We sang 'When the Spurs go marching in' which is very close to a song that means something to me. Dad and I quickly took a liking to the Spurs no. 7, Aaron Lennon, who was mentioned as a potential member of England's national team soon after this game.
The game proceeded with the Spurs dominating possession, as they moved the ball fluidly around the field. They had difficulty getting the ball inside 10 yards of the goal, as the Birmingham defense didn't let many balls through. Luka Modric broke his leg getting tackled while going for a fifty-fifty ball. However, this was the best thing that could have happened for the Spurs, as Peter Crouch went in as his sub.
If you've ever watched a game from Europe, you know the fans spend much of the game singing their club songs. Exactly what they're singing is another matter. I expected to be able to understand the chants word for word, but they sounded exactly like they do on television. I don't know whether this says more about the quality of the sound on televised matches or my difficulty understanding British chants. I was pretty familiar with 'When the Spurs go marching in' but had difficulty interpreting things outside of "F%$# City" or "Arsene Wanker."
Everything changed with Crouch, as the Spurs were a bit slower on offense with Modric out but were able to play above the opposition. Birmingham City's offense came out of nowhere and held onto the ball well, producing some good scoring chances. Some poor defensive execution nearly gave some away a goal or two.
Halftime meant that everyone left for the john and for food. We didn't have to deal with people leaving four times for more food or to pee in the first half. This was important because the seats were so cramped there was barely room to stand. Once the second half was about to start, everybody was back in their seats. There were no halftime promotions of a fan trying to score a goal from all the way across the field, no T-shirt gun, no ED ads (I'd almost forgot what it was like to go to a sporting event and not deal with the image of two old naked people in outdoor tubs). Aside from the numerous Puma and Mansion.com signs (gambling website, official sponsor of the club and occupying the center of their jerseys) along the sidelines, there were no offical tie ins. No sideline reports, no awkward and vacant interviews with the coaches going into or out of the locker room, no overplayed OutKast anthems.
The second half was much more exciting, as City's offense emerged and Peter Crouch initiated the Spurs scoring chances. Crouch tried a number of headers, one of which was stopped by a defender right on the goal line. This was then followed by another Crouch header bouncing off the top left corner of goal. As agonizing as each of these were, it only set the stage for the exciting goal, when Crouch scored off a free kick off a foul.
When Peter Crouch finally scored, there was a great mix of celebration and relief as Birmingham's defense was finally broken. Happily, It also meant it was ok to start flipping off the City fans, which I may have taken advantage of. The goal appeared to be the result of a set piece off a free kick about 30 yards away from the goal. Crouch certainly deserved to score, as he was off by a matter of inches on three earlier occasions.
Crouch heads in the first goal
Unfortunately, the Spurs decided it was ok to start packing it in, even though there were over 20 minutes left. City then scored on a miscommunication between a defender, Hutton, and the goalie. City fans were ecstatic to be tied on the road with the first place team in the Prem. Regulation ended in a tie, but there was some stoppage time from the Modric injury, leaving time for a last chance for the Spurs.
In stoppage time, City were content to play keep away and get the point. Their fans were loudly singing and feeling like they had won something. However, a City midfielder fell over on his own (seriously, watch the highlights) and the Spurs raced up the field with numbers. A great cross to Aaron Lennon led to some great stutter steps and a whistling shot between a defender and the goalie. As soon as this happened, we all immediately turned to the City fans and shouted obscenities at them as they snatched defeat from the jaws of a draw. It was swell. As that was in the fifth minute of stoppage time, the ref called the game soon after kickoff, which was just as well since several City defenders still hadn't gotten up off the ground. It was a great Spurs win, with Crouch and Lennon leading the way. Dad and I had a great time, even if we were only working on 2 hours sleep from the flight over.
OK, so we bought scarves
In hindsight, I'm thrilled we went to the Spurs game, since they currently sit at second in the Prem, and the first place team, Chelsea, is currently banned from signing new players. Liverpool is off to a terrible start, all Arsenal cares to do is protest a UEFA ban on a forward for diving (which was obvious even for their standards) and Man U is facing similar heat as Chelsea for encouraging a player to break a contract with his French club. Given this start (best in 40 years) and the preoccupations of the big four, this is the Spurs best chance to qualify for the Champions league or even win the Premiership.
In response to Ryan's post, I am sharing my thoughts about the big Bobcats trade. Firstly, we must consider Chandler's health. After all, his health was the reason his trade was rescinded. His foot injury, which was performed by the same doctor who deemed him unfit for the trade, is certainly a cause for concern. Chandler played in 45 games last year before playing between 73-80 games over the previous four seasons. For comparison, Okafor played in 82 games the last two seasons but far fewer in the previous three. Therefore, I don't entirely buy the idea that Okafor is so much healthier than Chandler.
Next, we look at the teams' motivations for the trade. The Hornets were acting out of financial interest, since their owner wants to avoid paying him the next two seasons. In my searches, I didn't find anything that made Chandler out to be a bad teammate, so at least there won't be any bad locker room energy injected into Charlotte. In my estimations, the Bobcats are trying to shake things up either because Larry Brown told them to or they want a contract that expires way before Okafor's so the team can be sold easier. Bob Johnson has expressed a lot of interest in selling the team and once he finds serious suitors I'll bet that will convince that Larry Brown that he could do better elsewhere, since Larry hasn't always been on the best of terms with owners and management.
As for the effect on the teams, I think Chandler will (surprise!) miss running the PNR with Chris Paul for easy buckets. He'll have better defensive help with the Bobcats, but you have to wonder who is going to be doing all the scoring when Gerald Wallace has an off night or inevitably gets injured. As for the Bugs, they will appreciate Okafor's rebounding and attitude (not that they disliked Chandler), but I've never seen Okafor move well on a PNR. He could very well have been trapped on the wrong team, but he seems to lack the fluidity Chandler has. We'll see what happens to his numbers from playing with Chris Paul. I think we'll have to wait and see as to who profits more. The sad thing, as Bill Simmons pointed out, that both teams wanted to dump salaries and that was the main reason for this happening. We'll see if either team benefits from their new centers.
Last night I was eating at Moe's (WELCOME TO MOE'S), it was $5 chicken-only Joey night, when I nearly spat my queso out over something I thought I saw go by on the crawl beneath the Cardinals-Dodgers game, "...eka Okafor for Hornet's C Tyson Chandler."
WHAT?!?? Why? How? Who? The Bobcats have only made a few successful draft picks, Okafor being one (at least relative to the others, and within his draft class). He's the rock and face of the franchise, an original Bobcat, he shot 56% from the field last season and he's a double double machine. OK, maybe machine is a bit generous, but he's a double double source. Put it this way, he's a double-double source only by nature of our base-10 counting system. If we admired 11 the way we do 10 he'd only have produced a single double double season once, and his points aren't that far ahead of his rebounds.
Anyways, I tried to legitimize the deal from the booth at Moe's. They're probably the same age (since Chandler entered the league from high school). It is likely a salary dump, they're just not reporting that Nazr Mohammed is included in the deal.
As I returned home and was able to look into all the details a few things became obvious and the deal came into focus. 1) Larry Brown doesn't like Okafor, for all his hard work 'Mek doesn't have the basketball instincts or ability that Brown wants. 2) Okafor has a 6 year contract while Chandler has a 2 year deal for less average money. 3) The 'Cats are not significantly worse with Chandler than they are with 'Mek (this one has a huge condition, that Chandler can stay healthy).
All in all two main things make me happy about this trade. The Bobcats are making business decisions. The easy way out would be to let Okafor's permanence with the team blind them, but they're making a tough choice for the good of the team (think of the Panthers letting Dan Morgan or Will Witherspoon go). They're also planning for being good in the future, not just mediocre. If this deal works they will have cap space in 2011 without being significantly worse next year. This allows for the team to get much better that year as opposed to settling for sneaking into the playoffs as the number eight seed.
This year the deal favors the Hornets, who get a quality big man and about 1 mil of cap relief, but from 2011 to 2014 they'll be paying 30+ year old Emeka Okafor 12 mil per year to be an undersized, aging bench player. In the NBA cap space is as valuable as not screwing up draft picks, the Bobcats seem to be learning at least one of these lessons.
Cason is much more NBA knowledgable than I, so that said any thoughts Mr. Dwyer?
Quentin Thomas, of "Just the Two of Us" fame from 2005's Midnight Madness, is going to be providing the intro to NBA Live 2010. We'll be checking for YouTube clips in November, when the NBA Season really starts.
Here, Thomas is seen clearly fouling Gerald Henderson, now of the Charlotte Bobcats.
From the N & O: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/unc/story/1602045.html
In a poll that should surprise no one, the Public Policy Polling firm declared that Roy Williams is liked by more people in the state of North Carolina than is Mike Krzyzewski. Sixty-one percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Roy while only fifty-two percent felt the same about Coach K. This indicates that fans of Duke and UNC appear to have a healthy respect for the suit on the other sideline. On an interesting note, Sidney Lowe and Dino Gaudio had zero favorable opinion* in this poll.
*Dino Gaudio and Sidney Lowe were not part of this survey, but zero percent popularity is our most approximate figure based upon State fan griping that they didn't have a winning season yet again and Wake fan griping that their team quit on their coach during their first round loss to Cleveland State.
As you've watched Roy's Heels over the last couple of years, you may have probably thought to yourself, "How does our team play so well while our coach wears such ugly ties?"
I often wondered where Roy Williams got his ties, and now I present to you the very same ties that Roy has famously worn over the past couple of seasons. From Alexander Julian: Julian updated the UNC uniforms in the late 80's by adding the argyle to the UNC Uniforms after consulting with Michael Jordan and Dean Smith. This was certainly a nice touch, bringing argyle to basketball before the Izod Center did, shown here:
Of course, Jay Wright is no slouch. I've heard he has a nice 12 piece outfit he just picked out just for Saturday's semifinal. I'd be remiss to leave him out of this discussion of well-dressed coaches. The University of Pennsylvania even gave him space to write his own editorial in response to not being in People's Sexiest People issue.
If you're wondering how the two coaches compare, you can read up on GQ's editors discussing Dick Vitale's list of best dressed coaches. Both Wright and Williams made the list with favorable reviews from Glenn O'Brien, one of the first people to discover Haitian neo-expressionist Jean-Michel Basquait.
