Showing posts with label Tar Heels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tar Heels. Show all posts

Sunday, November 13

Ryan's Favorite Numbers

Just wanted to try something out. Maybe not all of you heard, but KenPom is going all big time on us, and charging for a subscription. Personally, I plan on buying in, but I wanted to share some of the important stuff with y'all. So, after each UNC game I'll email out the Game Plan line (the 4 Factor Summary) to those parties interested, or at least my estimation of that list. The line is below, as a quick recap the numbers from left to right are Efficiency, effective Field Goal Percentage (where FGs are weighted by point value), Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebound Percentage and Free Throw Rate.

Anyways, each game I'm going to throw in a Favorite and Not Favorite Number. As the season progresses I might start to get a little fancier, for example a player's usage in a given game or something else homebrewed.

Favorite - 51.0% eFG, pretty decent shooting night, and I'd have to say I felt the shots weren't dropping. There seemed to be a lot of good shot selection that was unrewarded, but I'm not sure how to go about confirming this without some sort of game charting system. Anyways, we didn't lose any game in which we shot 51.0 or greater eFG last year, though we came close in the ACC tourney playing Miami (and turning the ball over on nearly 1/3 of our possessions)

Not Favorite - 45.9 OR% (against), pretty easy to guess this one, as I texted Cason seeing Watts really drove me crazy. He is a great energy guy who has his place, but this isn't last year and his place really can't be the 4 spot. We were playing the defensive boards pretty poorly with Zeller, and then we sent Watts in to try and box out Draymond Green, wtf Roy. Hopefully he realized he has 3 freshmen who can rebound better (well, maybe, we'll see about Simmons). It would be neat to break down the first half's runs (6-0 UNC, 15-2 MSU, rest of half ~24-5 UNC) with the number of rebounds.

Alright, in general I was pleased with UNC's play, but I really couldn't tell if it was solid defense or a Spartan team that just can't shoot. It will be nice to see as the season progresses, also worth noting that despite the OR%, the 79 Defensive Efficiency posted would have been good for 4th on the season last year, and we only held 2 BCS teams that low: Rutgers and BC.

Date Opponent Result Pace Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR | Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR
Fri Nov 11 34 Michigan St. W, 67-55 N 70 96 51 20.1 22.1 45 | 79 31.9 21.6 45.9 18
(really sorry KP, hope you don't find this and sue me)

Friday, October 2

Great NBA Training Camp Stuff

So I figured that week 5 of the college football season was a great time to show everybody this NBA Training Camp footage. I found this playing on the NBA TV channel, and it's a great insight into the kinds of things coaches go over when preparing their teams for the season. Here's Nuggets coach George Karl directing rookie Ty Lawson (known only as "Rook") about eschewing the open three in favor of driving to the basket. He also teaches him about decision making on the break and when to pass up shorter shots. Starts at around the 9:00 mark, in case you don't want to watch the whole thing.



There's also an excellent video on the Lakers that runs just as long. It's available here. And yes, they do discuss Adam Morrison's future and how much less of a douche Sasha Vujacic is now that he cut his hair.

Tuesday, July 14

I'm pretty sure we didn't make this up...


Quentin Thomas, of "Just the Two of Us" fame from 2005's Midnight Madness, is going to be providing the intro to NBA Live 2010. We'll be checking for YouTube clips in November, when the NBA Season really starts.

Here, Thomas is seen clearly fouling Gerald Henderson, now of the Charlotte Bobcats.

From the N & O:
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/unc/story/1602045.html

Monday, June 22

Roy is more popular than Coach K in North Carolina and in life...

In a poll that should surprise no one, the Public Policy Polling firm declared that Roy Williams is liked by more people in the state of North Carolina than is Mike Krzyzewski. Sixty-one percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Roy while only fifty-two percent felt the same about Coach K. This indicates that fans of Duke and UNC appear to have a healthy respect for the suit on the other sideline. On an interesting note, Sidney Lowe and Dino Gaudio had zero favorable opinion* in this poll.

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/williams_leads_coach_k_in_popularity











*Dino Gaudio and Sidney Lowe were not part of this survey, but zero percent popularity is our most approximate figure based upon State fan griping that they didn't have a winning season yet again and Wake fan griping that their team quit on their coach during their first round loss to Cleveland State.

Thursday, April 2

Now you too can dress like your favorite Final Four coach...


As you've watched Roy's Heels over the last couple of years, you may have probably thought to yourself, "How does our team play so well while our coach wears such ugly ties?"


I often wondered where Roy Williams got his ties, and now I present to you the very same ties that Roy has famously worn over the past couple of seasons. From Alexander Julian:

Julian updated the UNC uniforms in the late 80's by adding the argyle to the UNC Uniforms after consulting with Michael Jordan and Dean Smith. This was certainly a nice touch, bringing argyle to basketball before the Izod Center did, shown here:


Of course, Jay Wright is no slouch. I've heard he has a nice 12 piece outfit he just picked out just for Saturday's semifinal. I'd be remiss to leave him out of this discussion of well-dressed coaches. The University of Pennsylvania even gave him space to write his own editorial in response to not being in People's Sexiest People issue.


If you're wondering how the two coaches compare, you can read up on GQ's editors discussing Dick Vitale's list of best dressed coaches. Both Wright and Williams made the list with favorable reviews from Glenn O'Brien, one of the first people to discover Haitian neo-expressionist Jean-Michel Basquait.

Monday, January 5

Follow up to Anatomy of an Upset

Ryan's excellent post gave a number of good reasons why we lost. The Ken Pomeroy stats reveal our porous defense combined with poor free throw shooting and rebounding equals a loss. By looking at different games, Ryan shows how we're underperforming.

I wanted to poing out some of the x's and o's reasons we lost. Strategically, BC held us out of the break in the first half and most of the second by sending as many guys as possible for offensive rebounds. By pulling down lots of first half offensive rebounds (I believe we were outrebounded but I'll have to verify) and battling for rebounds every other time, we couldn't get into our secondary break. Previously, we saw that sending a safety or two back on defense was the best way to slow our break as Kansas and Valparaiso have shown. This time, we were undone by poor defensive rebounding, leading to few opportunities for run-outs.

Next, BC's flex set offense flummoxed our defense. A basic flex set employs lots of screens, movement and passing to lose defenders or create mismatches. This is used almost exclusively against man-to-man defenses and often means medium-to-long possessions on offense. Other characteristics of the flex set are: it's easy to learn, everyone knows that they should do next, and you don't need to create your own shot to be successful (although nobody told Tyrese Rice).

If you recall BC's offensive sets, they would line up 4 men parallel to the backboard, in between the FT line and 3 pt line. Rice is the odd man out, bringing the ball up the right side of the floor. The flex set would then spring to life as O2 and O4 would set screens for each other and O3 or O5 would stay in the lane while the other drifted closer to the basket. In short, this means a lot of action taking place around the free throw line, where a player can pass off to a 3 pt shooter with relative ease or look for a man posting up down low. Mid-range shots can also open up easily as a player whose defender is tired or confused can be lost in the myriad of screens and end up taking the wrong man.

I've certainly complained about our guards' abilities to communicate and get around screens quicker. Last night, there were missed assignments galore as Rice and Sanders got good mid and long range looks through the flex set. Also, Rice hit some extremely difficult shots that were close to indefensible. Credit him for having the soft touch to hit some step back jumpers and circus shots.

My next bone to pick is with our half court trap. I may never understand why Roy didn't put his foot down at halftime (or sooner) and tell everyone to quit trapping. It felt like the BC-UNC football game, where BC curiously decided to leave Hakim Nicks in single coverage. I wondered why they would risk getting burned over and over and over and over again. Well, Roy returned the favor by allowing us to keep gambling on the half court trap. We got burned over and over and over and over again.

BC got lots of open shots because Al Skinner and Tyrese Rice did their homework. Rice knew where the help would be each time. As a consequence, our defense had to shift and recover, leaving Reggie Jackson open. Since we're known to trap after timeouts, some FTs or out of bounds plays, BC had a fair idea of when the trap was coming. We continued to gamble after halftime to much the same result.

On defense, Boston College did a good job of pulling 4 or 5 men into the lane to force bad shots and turnovers. We shot 9-25 for 2 pt FGs in the 2nd half, a testament to the strong BC defense. The Eagles were physical. Hansbrough was well covered, being forced off the block or doubled to prevent a good entry pass. Although Hansbrough made his shots, Deon Thompson and Danny Green struggled.

If you watched Deon's body language when he shot FT's, it was clear he was winded. Pushing and being pushed often tends to leave one's arms tired. His 1-6 shooting hurt our comeback chances.

Since we were behind for most of the game and didn't have our inside shots falling, we started hoisting 3's with about 7 minutes left. Wayne's 3 pt shot is still MIA. Ty, Danny and Will Graves shot 33% individually and as a whole. Roy may or may not have addressed the eagarness of our 3 pt shooting, but the Heels kept shooting away.

Finally, we didn't try to foul like a team that's trailing should. No one other than Rice was a remarkable free throw shooter, why did we not try fouling earlier? Why not send Larry Drew, Will Graves or Marcus Ginyard to foul the poorer shooters, let the crowd yell during FT attempts, and grab the rebounds? At 78-71, would it have killed us to start fouling to save time and make them earn their points? It's not like we would run out of bench players. This is my boldest assertion of this post, but I'm a bit perplexed as to why we wouldn't make them get their points 1 or 2 at a time instead of 2 or 3 at a time. With guards doing so much shooting, it's less likely to have continuation fouls where the shot counts and a FT is awarded.

In summation, BC's stratetic moves and our un-strategic moves fueled a significant defeat. I hope that our players and our coaches will realize the mistakes that were made. As a consqequence of this game, we'll see more teams following Boston College's formula for beating us. Hopefully we'll be better prepared to stop beating ourselves and resume beaing our opponents.

Monday, December 22

Valparaiso Game Review

Yours truly attended the UNC-Valparaiso game in the United Center on Saturday. Since this was one of my few chances to see the Heels, I went with 3 co-workers who graduated in '08 and '06.

Going to the United Center as a Heels fan is, I would imagine, like going to UNC if you are a big MJ fan. It's seeing someone you've followed so closely for a successful period in their lives in a totally different environment, with different fans, teammates, coaches, high tops, etc. We happened to sit right under the retired Jordan jersey in the rafters of the United Center, and within easy view of all six World Championship banners. It really makes you appreciate both the Bulls' hard work and that they won 3 titles with 2 Tar Heels and 2 Hawkeyes on their team.

The game itself was uneventful as our games go. Bobby Frasor did not start, which took all of us by surprise. Also, Valpo was the home team and took it quite seriously as they brought their band and students with them behind one of the baskets. They also had quite a few fans, even though Carolina fans outnumbered them about 3-2. Valpo also watched a lot of tape and frustrated us with their box and 1 defense. We had a very difficult time getting the ball inside via Ty, Wayne, Danny, Deon or Tyler. We settled for jumpers or turned the ball over.

On the flip side, Valpo had an effective flex set offense. Their center-forward managed to get the basket over and over because of our confusion on defense. They also hit their 3's and were winning for about the first 8 minutes. Their guards and forwards also managed to lose Wayne, Danny and Deon easily for backdoor cuts. I wasn't seriously concerned, since we made them force shots and commit turnovers, but it made me think what a team with better players could do with that defense.

At this point, I ought to mention that I have never liked Valpo for what they did to Ole Miss in 1998. Ole Miss was a 4 seed ten years ago in the NCAA tournament and the coach's son (of all the people who could hit a game winning shot, it was the coach's son!!!) hit the winning 3 pointer as time expired. Until 2005, this was the main reason my dad had such a hard time watching the NCAA tournament.

As the game wore on, we were reminded why zone defenses tend to lose their effectiveness against our team. We kept getting easy rebounds and put backs. As the fouls mounted, their big men couldn't really guard anyone for fear of fouling out.

A couple of notes:
Urule Igbavboa, Valparaiso Center, threw down a dunk on Tyler in the first half when we employed the Red Sea defense. You could tell he was still thinking about it when he kept looking up at the big screens in the first half. I could tell he was still thinking about it in the second half when he smiled after being fouled and airballed the FT.

Wayne Ellington's jump shot is still MIA.

Valpo used a safety or two on offense so we had very few fast break opportunities. They did a good job of always having at least 2 guys in the paint when we brought the ball to half court.

The force was not with Danny Green on Saturday.

All the scrubs who played got on the stat sheet one way or another.

Deon continues to be efficient, going 3-4 on FG and 6-8 on FT.

Hey, we still forced 25 To's.

The Jordan statue in front of the United Center is awesome, you need to get your picture taken there.

Monday, December 8

New look UNC defense

This is a bit late, but here's a great post from X's and O's of Basketball about UNC's interior defense in the Michigan State game. It has a couple of clips that highlight our collapsing defense and how we used it to force 21 turnovers against a strong Michigan State team.

Link: http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com/2008/12/uncs-interior-defense-keys-their-fast.html

The site also breaks down a myriad of NBA, Euro, College and WNBA (yes, it still exists) games for bits of strategy and coaching. If only people other than Jay Bilas or Len Elmore read this site, we might get better commentary for our games. I regularly check it to learn what analysts mean when they say 'flex' or 'swing' offense, fundamentally sound screen hedges and all those other terms that they love to drop but never explain.

Monday, November 24

Jimmy Connors shows more emotion at basketball game than tennis match

An interesting item for all tennis fans who read the blog (a.k.a. everybody): Jimmy Connors was arrested for noncompliance at the beginning of the UCSB game on Friday. He was involved in confrontation outside the arena and upon refusing to leave the spot, was arrested, booked and released.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/tennis/23sportsbriefs-CONNORSISARR_BRF.html

Since I'm sure it crossed your mind, John McEnroe views this as a challenge and will try to get arrested at the next random event he attends.

Wednesday, November 19

Ouch

North Carolina forward Zeller out for the season

This is just my opinion, but I don't think the Kentucky player who fouled Zeller should be held at fault for the wrist. Byron and I both agreed that it was questionable whether Zeller was actually fouled in the first place, and it didn't appear from watching the replays that the Kentucky player caused him to land funny on his wrist. Zeller was going at top speed down the floor, drew enough contact for him to miss the dunk (but certainly not enough to be an intentional foul), and thus was coming down too quickly to be able to brace his fall properly. Again, just my thoughts.

Update: From SI "Zeller had surgery Wednesday to repair fractures in two places, a recovery that normally would take 12 to 16 weeks." Also, thanks for the info from Byron, looks he is opting for surgery and that it is a pretty severe break. Just an FYI: 16 weeks is March 11th but the Heels may take the medical red-shirt route.

Sunday, November 16

UNC-Penn Musings

Primarily, I just want to emphasize the volume of possessions that is currently missing from UNC's offense. I feel comfortable using last season's stats, because the Heels starting five is unchanged from last season.

Hansbrough 81% minutes 27% possessions = 22% of total off possessions
Ginyard 70% minutes 14% possessions = 10% of total off possessions

That's nearly one third of the offense, not just when the starting five were on the floor, but for the entire game. Now taking that into consideration, am I terribly concerned we settled for jump shots all game? No.

All things considered the freshmen looked good. They made some silly mistakes that should be eliminated by mid-December, such as Zeller missing a cut Lawson expected him to make and Ed Davis throwing away fast break outlet pass. On the plus side, Ed Davis is a monster on the glass (see below), Zeller has some slick range on his jumper, and I really like Larry Drew's defensive intensity against dribble penetration (were you watching Wayne?). Some things to look out for in both the short and long term, does Zeller's start Saturday mean he'll be the first big man off the bench (behind Danny of course)? I was under the assumption that Ed Davis would fill that role, but it could have been that Coach Williams thinks that Zeller's strengths (jumper with range, average rebounding) compliment Thompson better than Davis' do. Also, watch Larry Drew's progression. He is in a position similar to that of Quentin Thomas, a freshman (QT/Drew) with an established starter ahead of him (Felton/Lawson) and a star recruit nipping at his heels (Lawson/Dexter Strickland). Will Drew be a contributor this season and a starter in the future, or will he simply warm the seat through next December when Strickland assumes the mantle of the next "faster with the ball" Roy Williams point guard?

Negatives
Ok, we'll go with the negatives first. Penn shot the ball way too well, nearly 50% eFG is too high for a team that needs to up the defense to win more games. Hopefully Marcus Ginyard can help out in this department, along with better teamwork as the year progresses. Also, way way way way too many threes. The team took an average of 22% of its field goals from behind the arc last year, against Penn that number ballooned to 36%. Hopefully the return of Hansbrough will help to refocus the offense inside the paint, where it belongs.

Positives
Without Tyler, the offensive rebounding did not suffer. The Heels rebounded 37% of their own misses a notch below the 42% average. Tyler returning should improve that number, both in talent level, and ideally in taking more inside shots and shooting a better percentage from the field. Helping in the cause was Ed Davis, with 4 offensive rebounds (out of 14 total boards) in only 22 minutes, a monstrous 25 OR%. Also, though jump shots and threes were the preferred method of scoring, they did come as a result of good ball movement (or friendly score keeping). 78% of the made field goals were assisted, up from only 50% last year. Lastly, Danny Green has picked up right where he left off filling the stat sheet from corner to corner: 5-7 FG, 2-4 3FG, 12 Pts, 4 Asts, 3 Stls, 4 Rbs (1 OR), and 0 TO's. Don't worry Danny, the blocks will come.

Next Up: UK, @Chapel Hill, Tues Nov 18, 9:00 pm, ESPN

Liveblog Cason?

Despite John's being logged in to my computer during the Panthers game, Ryan was the author of this post, sheesh

Saturday, November 8

Ramblin Wreck Wrap

Strong win for the Heels today over Ga Tech, 28-7. Once again, we were outgained yet won comfortably because our opponents insist upon turning the ball over. My brother from a different mother, Jonathan Dwyer, rushed for 157 yards. However, over half of the yards came from an 85 yd touchdown run late in the 4th quarter.

Cam Sexton continues to do everything he can to retain his job as game manager by throwing for a piddly 100 yds and a not-so-piddly 2 TDs. I'm sure that Ga Tech put about 5 guys on Hakeem Nicks after seeing what happened against BC so I will let it slide.

Also, for our readers who are on the Thorpe or Bednarik award selection committees, Trimane Goddard has 5 interceptions so far this season.

One question I have is why were we wearing our road unis at home today. Tech wore white, so what gives with the navy jerseys?


Edit: Trimane Goddard has 6 interceptions this season. Bednarik and Thorpe voters, please take note. I also submitting a mailbag question for Adam Lucas: when was the last time UNC wore non-Carolina blue jerseys at home?

Friday, September 5

What do Rashad McCants and Reggie Bush have in common?

So, here it is, the days between the Thursday night opening game and the rest of the NFL's smorgasbord of Sunday games. Its sorta like the brief interlude of breakfast on Christmas morning, right after you've already gone through your stocking, but before you settle in to open your wrapped presents and visit the relatives. Anyways, I'm going to use this brief interlude to introduce our new NFL game here at tfsb. So, here are the rules (I think, at least, assuming Cason and John buy in).
  • Every week we'll each pick 1 RB, 1 WR, and 1 QB
  • For each player that gain or throw for more than 100/300 yards, we'll earn a point
  • The first 3 weeks we'll rotate the picking order
  • From there we'll award the spots in inverse order of standings (Or maybe rotate through even turns with a sympathy "last place" week thrown in?)
  • Each person can only pick any given player twice (thrice?) during the season
Alright, let's now wait for input from John and Cason, and see where we stand. Ideally, this will work, and we'll "draft" our 3 man teams before Sunday.

Now, onto the actual title of the post, The Big Lead is reporting some news about our old friend Rashad McCants is appearing at public events with one of the Kardashian sisters (Khloe, in case you're keeping track). Maybe he should be focused on upholding the UNC legacy in the pros or working hard to make sure he gets the best of his first post-rookie FA deal. Nah, shouldn't be an issue, you can just come back here and hang out with Reyshawn (saw him at Target last weekend).