Santana to Mets?

It's unclear to me if the Twins decided that they had to get Johan Santana out of the AL, or if the Red Sox and Yankees had gotten fed up with the process and decided to either keep their young talent or replace the frontline members of the trade with other prospects, but the players the Twins are getting from the Mets (Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey) are just not good enough for a pitcher of Santana's caliber, i.e. the best pitcher in baseball at this point. As Jim Callis, editor of Baseball America, states in this post, "Guerra and Gomez come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim." He also projects the two other pitchers as #4 starters on a major league team.

Baseball Prospectus projects Santana as a Met to finish the year with a 2.94 ERA and 239 strikeouts. For reference, Jake Peavy led the majors in strikeouts in 2007 with 240. Scott Kazmir led the AL with 239. Only Peavy would have had a lower ERA in 2007, finishing with a 2.54 mark. This immediately gives credence to a Mets rotation which now includes Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez, and Oliver Perez. The Mets are hoping that Maine, Hernandez, and Perez can all provide the types of performances they gave the Mets last season, but there is cause for concern for all three. Maine will be entering his second full season as a frontline starter, giving opponents a better chance to look at him, and Hernandez and Perez are known more for their inconsistency from year to year than their effectiveness. Nonetheless, combined with the punch that the New York offense provides, the Mets have made themselves the favorites of the NL East with this trade (regardless of what the Braves would have you believe - "Santana deal brings parity to NL East").

Edit: Ryan pointed me to this article by Aaron Gleeman, a writer for Rotoworld. In it he tempers the Twins hating, and provides some hope for Minnesota fans in addition to attempting to rationalize Bill Smith's decision.

World Series Preview

Just to remind everyone, the baseball season isn't quite over yet. The Red Sox have the mind-numbing formality of playing the NL Champion Rockies. Yeah, you'd think they'd have started that by now, huh? Well, at least we all got an extra episode of House out of it to tide us over. Anyways, John and I will be strongly pulling against the Red Yanks, err, I mean, Sox. Its time for ROCKtober, here are some previews via sites that know more about baseball than I (more than even John!). As a side note, if you came here because I pestered you and convinced you that you should know about the teams playing, you should keep reading down to John's "New York Look Yankees?" post, its the kind of original idea, well-researched post we put up about once a month around here.

The Hardball Times What2Watch4 in the World Series (also from THT the cases for the Rockies and for the Red Sox

The AP points out that this series was already played, in June

"Sox and Dawgs" goes back to look at the aforementioned
3 game series at Fenway

The writer of "Baseball Musings" previews the series at TSN

BP has a couple of articles about the rotations for both teams and their patience at the plate

Epic Carnival gets in the the World Series preview action, and follows up with 6 important issues facing the teams as they head into play tonight.

Byron commented on the lack of a prediction from John or I. We both more or less argee with the pundits, I've got the Sox in 6, John has them in 7. The Rockies pitching seems overmatched, and the Sox lineup is so much better from top to bottom. Though, as if you couldn't tell, we hope ROCKtober rolls on.

New York Look Yankees?

One of Ryan's comments at lunch yesterday prompted me to do some research into the Yankees payroll (I forgot what that comment was, exactly, maybe Ryan can elucidate). Looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts, I came up with a list of the Yankees' top contractual obligations and determined when New York would be able to cut bait with all of their highly-paid talent, if they decided to. Amounts are an average per-year salary through the given year, giving an idea of how much payroll they're taking up, and how much will come off the books in what year.

Mariano Rivera: free agent this offseason ($10.5M in 2007)
Roger Clemens: free agent this offseason (prorated, actually paid Clemens about $17.4M in 2007)
Alex Rodriguez is signed through 2010, but has a 10-day window after this World Series ends to opt out of his current contract and become a free agent.

Andy Pettitte: $16M player option for 2008
Jorge Posada: $12M player option for 2008
Bobby Abreu: $16M club option for 2008
Kyle Farnsworth: $5.7M through 2008
Carl Pavano: $10M through 2008
Mike Mussina: $11.5M through 2008
Jason Giambi: $17.1M through 2008, $22M 2009 club option

Hideki Matsui: $13M through 2009
Johnny Damon: $13M through 2009

Derek Jeter: $18.9M through 2010

Kei Igawa: $4M through 2011

As you can see, a whole crap-ton of money comes off the books after next season for the Yankees. Of course, they may choose to re-sign a lot of these guys, but I just don't see Cashman going that route for anyone but Abreu. Everyone else is just dead weight on that 2008 list. If Rodriguez stays in New York next year, the Yankees will have contractual obligations to just five players (not including pre-arbitration guys): 3B, LF, CF, SS, and a SP. Cashman could certainly choose to wipe the slate clean after 2008, and let his minor leaguers fill most of the holes while signing free agents or trading to play positions that there are no in-house options for. The Yankees could, and probably will, look MUCH different in 2009 than they do now. Surprisingly to some, the Yankees' pitching prospects in the minors ranked first among MLB clubs at the beginning of the season according to Baseball Prospectus, with names like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Tyler Clippard. Whether their payroll will still be as bloated as it is now depends on how much say Cashman has on whether he uses young guys or free agents to fill his holes, and whether the Steinbrenner family continues to be as liberal with the pursestrings as George has been in the past. The fact that they were asking Joe Torre to take a pay cut to stay in New York may signify the first sign of payroll slashing as much as it signified their unhappiness with not winning the World Series since 2000. If the Steinbrenner family does indeed decide to keep paying players more than they're worth just to come play in New York, Cashman might not have much need to look to his farm system for much. The fact that all these players will be at least six years into their careers will pretty much guarantee that the Yankees of the future will be of the same mold as the Yankees of current, just with different numbers on their jerseys. Cashman, and the Yankees organization as a whole, has a crossroads to look forward to at the end of the 2008 season. Here's hoping they have enough sense to look to the future, not just of the club, but of MLB as a whole.

The World Series Preview

Here are some links to VegasWatch where there are previewing the World Series matchup between the Clevelan Indians and the Boston Red Sox. I mean, that's what it is, right? Essentially? Ok, ok, the Rockies could probably take on either of these teams, despite not having a starting pitcher that would crack the top 2 (Cleveland) or top 3 (Boston) of the rotation.
(edit: upon further review, Francis' VORP is higher than both Schilling and Matsuzaka)

Lineups
Fielding
Starting Rotations
Bullpens
(yeah, he's a little Indian crazy)

To tag on (in case the VW preview didn't quite fill you with enough knowledge of the ALCS combatants, from BP:
"six different hitters homered versus New York, and of the 12 who played, 11 collected at least one extra-base hit. In the Indians' balanced attack"
Also from that article, though the Sox and Tribe tied for 1st in the AL with 96 wins, the Red Sox projected win total was 15 games higher than that of the Indians (103-88)

Links (thanks as usual to Deadspin, AA, etc)
Dick Vitale's MLB Playoff picks (click only if you have a strong stomach)
Manny Acta interview (not sure why this is here, John and I both read it)
And Will Carroll's weekly injury report, I'd be worried but no one in my fantasy league bothers to read this blog OR update their rosters

Later: John and I co-post to knobslob the new BP!! (and preview our plans for hours and hours of College Basketball viewing)

Playoffs?!? Playoffs??!?

With Starling song being my main activity of the day at work, I've been scouring the internet looking for readable articles. As it turns out, there seem to be some type of playoffs starting up tonight, maybe in some minor 3rd party sport or something, I'm not sure. I mean, if its not NFL then who gives a crap right?

Previews from Hardball Times (in case you haven't been following MLB all that closely, I'll understand, I promise):
Why the Rockies will lose to some AL team in the World Series
Why the D'backs will lose to some AL team in the World Series
Tonight's NLCS Game 1 pitching matchup, woah, wait before you click, major points if you can name the 2 starting pitchers, hell ANY 2 starting pitchers on these two teams (and no John, you can't play)
Is it sad that if it weren't for Brian Fuentes I wouldn't be able to differentiate the Rockies and D'backs bullpens?


Other Baseball News/Blogs:
John Schuerholz is stepping down after 17 years as Braves GM
The common thread running though the 4 remaining playoff teams
MVP calculations via regression and simultaneous anticipation of voter stupidity

MLB Awards

At the close of the 2007 MLB season, it's time to see who deserves those coveted awards, and who's likely to snatch them from their outstretched hands.

AL MVP
Hands down, Alex Rodriguez, as he led the majors with a 96.6 VORP this season. His closest competitor, Magglio Ordonez, took home the batting title crown, but he has two strikes against him: his team isn't in the playoffs, and he didn't lead the league in home runs or RBIs (Rodriguez did).

NL MVP
Hanley Ramirez took home the VORP title this year with 89.5, second only to Rodriguez. There's no way he gets the MVP award, though, because his team isn't in the playoffs and because he didn't lead the league in home runs or RBIs. So if he's out, who gets it? There are three guys in the front-running, any of whom could take home the hardware: Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Matt Holliday. Fielder led the league in home runs, with Howard second; Holliday led the league in RBIs, with Howard second; and Holliday led the league in batting average. Since Fielder's team isn't in the playoffs, I doubt he'll get it. My guess is that Matt Holliday will probably take home the award, because RBIs seem to have more of a "most valuable" feel, and because the late-season run by the Rockies will be fresh in everyone's minds as they turn in their ballots. He's not a bad choice, as he's the fourth-best candidate in the NL, behind Ramirez, David Wright, and Chipper Jones.

AL Cy Young
The AL's best pitcher this year was C.C. Sabathia. Even though his team is in the playoffs, he just doesn't have those Cy Young tokens, also known as "wins," as Josh Beckett has. Beckett's team is, unfortunately for Sabathia, also in the playoffs. Beckett wins.

NL Cy Young
Can you believe the season Jake Peavy has had? 9.67 K/9 with a 77.0 VORP, 11 points better than his closest competitor, Brandon Webb. Even though Webb's team is in the playoffs and Peavy's isn't, the voters HATE giving back-to-back Cy Young awards (see Clemens, Roger and Santana, Johan in 2005). Peavy also won the pitching triple crown this year in the NL and led the majors in both strikeouts and ERA.

AL Rookie of the Year
The deserving candidate here is none other than Jeremy Guthrie (show of hands: who has heard of Mr. Guthrie?), pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. The award will most likely go to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and there's a small (har har) chance it goes to Dustin Pedroia. Probably Matsuzaka, though.

NL Rookie of the Year
Ryan Braun stands head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the NL, a full 17 points of VORP away from Hunter Pence and Troy Tulowitzki. Even though Tulowitzki's team is in the playoffs (and he played a full season for the Rockies, while Braun came up in late May), I think Braun still gets the award.

And just for fun, the worst hitter in MLB this year was Nick Punto, third baseman for the Twins, and the worst pitcher was Mike Maroth, who in just 38 innings pitched for St. Louis managed to outstrip every other pitcher in negative VORP. One of the main reasons St. Louis missed the playoffs this season in the NL Sucktrel.

All-Star Lineups through Week 11

The races are getting down to the wire, with voting only open through June 28.

AL
C Jorge Posada (2, Rodriguez)
1B (ha) David Ortiz (1)
2B B.J. Upton (4, Polanco)
3B Alex Rodriguez (1)
SS Derek Jeter (1)
OF Magglio Ordonez (4, Guerrero)
OF Ichiro Suzuki (3, M. Ramirez)
OF Vladimir Guerrero (1, Suzuki)
SP Dan Haren
RP J.J. Putz

NL
C Russell Martin (1)
1B Prince Fielder (1)
2B Chase Utley (1)
3B Miguel Cabrera (2, Wright)
SS Jose Reyes (1)
OF Matt Holliday (7, Beltran)
OF Barry Bonds (4, Griffey)
OF Aaron Rowand (>15, Soriano)
SP Jake Peavy
RP Takashi Saito

PAP

Also, taking a look at the Pitcher Abuse Points report, we see again that the Giants are running their rotation into the ground.

6. Barry Zito
8. Matt Cain
9. Matt Morris
13. Noah Lowry

Is this the fault of Dave Righetti, the pitching coach who has been with San Francisco for several years, or Bruce Bochy, who arrived in the offseason? Part of the problem may be the Giant bullpen - it ranks 20th in WXRL.

By the way, the #1 pitcher on the Pitcher Abuse Points report, A.J. Burnett, had to leave yesterday's game due to a shoulder strain.

That's Nasty! (Week of June 11)

I'm going to be in Puerto Rico for a week starting tomorrow, so let's go ahead and crown Justin Verlander as this week's nasty pitcher. His line yesterday against the Brew Crew:

IP: 9
H: 0
R: 0
BB: 4
SO: 12
GmSc: 95

That's Nasty! (Week of June 4)

Special extended edition of That's Nasty! this week to give credit (and hell) to several pitchers. First off, the best performance of the week was turned in by Jon Lieber on Saturday against the Royals. His line:

IP: 9
H: 3
R: 0
BB: 0
SO: 11
GmSc: 92

Just dominant. Two singles and a double allowed for the whole game, with 11 strikeouts mixed in. Also of note, C.C. Sabathia had the best start of the day on both days he pitched, Tuesday and Sunday.

On the other side of things, three pitchers turned in outings that had a GameScore of less than 10: Roy Halladay (6), Tom Glavine (5), and Kameron Loe (4). Loe's line on Thursday against the Tigers:

IP: 2.2
H: 9
R: 9
BB: 1
SO: 1

All-Star Lineups through Week 10

Starting this week, I'll give each player's pole position in the All-Star balloting race, followed by the leading vote-getter at their position.

AL
C Jorge Posada (4, F. Rodriguez*)
1B Mark Teixeira (>5, Ortiz)
2B B.J. Upton (5, Cano)
3B Alex Rodriguez (1)
SS Derek Jeter (1)
OF Magglio Ordonez (5, Guerrero)
OF Vladimir Guerrero (1, M. Ramirez)
OF Grady Sizemore (6, Ichiro)
SP Dan Haren
RP J.J. Putz

NL
C Russell Martin (1)
1B Prince Fielder (2, Pujols)
2B Chase Utley (1)
3B Miguel Cabrera (2, Wright)
SS Hanley Ramirez (>5, Reyes)
OF Matt Holliday (8, Beltran)
OF Barry Bonds (4, Griffey)
OF Aaron Rowand (>15, Soriano)
SP Jake Peavy
RP Rafael Soriano

*Fucking Ivan Rodriguez. Makes the damn All-Star team every year even though he doesn't deserve it. At least Mike Piazza's not on the radar this year (yet).

Braves Update

Alfonso Soriano hit three home runs against the Braves last night. Lance Cormier's first two starts have been disastrous, both against Chicago...8 ER in 4 IP last week, 5 ER in 3.2 IP this week. Ugh. This was supposed to be the rock at the back of our rotation? Is Cormier looking to become the latest incarnation of Mark Redman?

The Braves selected Jason Heyward, a power-hitting, toolsy outfielder from a Georgia high school, as their first pick in the draft. Both BA and BP had nothing but positive things to say about the pick. Our sandwich pick, Jonathan Gilmore, is also projected as a raw power hitter.

UNC players selected:
Josh Horton, #90, Athletics
Luke Putkonen, #121, Tigers
Andrew Carignan, #180, Athletics
Reid Fronk, #215, Devil Rays
Benji Johnson, #528, Braves
Robert Woodard, #627, Padres

That's Nasty! (Week of May 28)

Joe Blanton beat the Twins on Saturday this week 1-0. His line:

IP 9
H 3
BB 0
R 0
SO 6
GmSc 87

Blanton needed 108 pitches to complete the game in 1 hour and 49 minutes. The three hits allowed were all singles.

All-Suck Lineups through Week 9

AL
C Jason Kendall
1B Aubrey Huff
2B Erick Aybar
3B Joe Crede
SS Ben Zobrist
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Jay Gibbons
OF Corey Patterson
SP Jeff Weaver
RP B.J. Ryan

NL
C Yorvit Torrealba
1B Rich Aurilia
2B Jamey Carroll
3B Alberto Callaspo
SS Omar Vizquel
OF Ryan Langerhans
OF Kory Casto
OF Steve Finley
SP Mark Redman
RP Jorge Julio

All-Star Lineups through Week 9

AL
C Jorge Posada
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Brian Roberts
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Jhonny Peralta
OF Magglio Ordonez
OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF Grady Sizemore
SP Dan Haren
RP Al Reyes

NL
C Russell Martin
1B Prince Fielder
2B Dan Uggla
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS Hanley Ramirez
OF Barry Bonds
OF Matt Holliday
OF Carlos Beltran
SP Jake Peavy
RP Takashi Saito

All-Suck Lineups through Week 8

AL
C Jason Kendall
1B Aubrey Huff
2B Erick Aybar
3B Chone Figgins
SS Ben Zobrist
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Emil Brown
OF Jay Gibbons
SP Jeff Weaver
RP B.J. Ryan

NL
C Yorvit Torrealba
1B Rich Aurilia
2B Jamey Carroll
3B Tony Graffanino
SS Adam Everett
OF Ryan Langerhans (Atlanta Model)
OF Kory Casto
OF Steve Finley
SP Mark Redman
RP Jorge Julio

All-Star Lineups through Week 8

AL
C Jorge Posada
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B B.J. Upton
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Derek Jeter
OF Magglio Ordonez
OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF Ichiro
SP Dan Haren
RP Al Reyes

NL
C Russell Martin
1B Todd Helton
2B Chase Utley
3B Chipper Jones
SS Hanley Ramirez
OF Barry Bonds
OF Matt Holliday
OF Carlos Beltran
SP Jake Peavy
RP Takashi Saito

That's Nasty! (Week of May 21)

Isn't it funny how a lot of the best pitching performances are on Sundays? This Sunday, we had Jake Peavy, the best pitcher in baseball, going against the Brewers, who started off hot (24-10) but are in a bit of a tailspin right now, having lost 11 of their last 14 games, including Sunday's. The NL Central is so bad that they haven't lost the division lead yet, though. Anyway, Peavy's line:

7 IP
2 H
1 BB
0 R
8 K
GmSc 80

Just stellar. The two hits were a leadoff Tony Gwynn, Jr. single in the second (Peavy got two flyouts and a strikeout to follow), and a Craig Counsell leadoff single in the sixth (Suppan, trying to bunt him over, ended up bunting into a double play. Whoops.) Of Peavy's 105 pitches, 71 were thrown for strikes. Heath Bell came in to pitch a perfect eighth, including two strikeouts, and Trevor Hoffman "earned" the "save" to protect Peavy's win, 3-0.

Braves bits

Mark Redman's ass got sacked!

And Kelly Johnson's getting married!

Tampa Bay Devil Rays, On the Clock

From BA, Devil Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison has confirmed that the club's top three choices are David Price (LHP, Vanderbilt), Matt Wieters (C, Georgia Tech), and Josh Vitters (3B, Cypress [Calif.] High). The club is expected to draft one of the three.